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Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

March 30, 2007
Skills vs. Stats: The Hitters

Let’s continue our spring quest to objectively measure baseball skills rather than merely reciting the stats that often obscure them. Some of the information below is making it’s way outside of baseball’s inner circle for the first time.

Last week we looked at the best pitcher’s skills. Since then, I’ve obtained extended, unpublished lists from the great people at Baseball Info Solutions (stat provider for the highly recommended Bill James Handbook). Let’s quickly review the pitchers at the bottom of our skill rankings before moving on to the hitters.

The 99th best fastball among pitchers last year was thrown by the great Johan Santana (.822 batting average plus slugging average against his heater). Last week we noted his No. 1-by-a-mile change (.352 BPS). The lesson: you need one great pitch and that doesn’t make your other pitches better, as is commonly believed.

Last on our curve rankings is Cub Jason Marquis (.827 BPS against). Lowest-ranked changeup: Colorado’s Rodrigo Lopez (.958, just behind Cub Ted Lilly, .938, and the White Sox John Garland, .894). Least effective slider on our list of 100 was Texas’s Joaquin Benoit (.652, just behind teammate Kevin Millwood, .646, and Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir, .642).

Now let’s look at the top 10 hitters against each pitch, with the BPS in parentheses.

Against the fastball: Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard (1.199), Boston’s Manny Ramirez (1.102), Boston’s David Ortiz (1.093), St. Louis’ Albert Pujols (1.045), Pittsburgh’s Adam LaRoche (1.026), Houston’s Lance Berkman (1.026), Toronto’s Alex Rios (1.016), Yankee Jorge Posada (1.008) and Angel Juan Rivera (1.004).

Moving to Lord Charles, which must seem like senile Uncle Charlie to these great curveball hitters: Angel Vlad Guerrero (1.219), Minnesota’s Justin Morneau (1.204), Berkman (1.141), Colorado’s Matt Holliday (.983), White Sox Jim Thome (.959), Toronto’s Vernon Wells (.944), Tampa Bay’s Carl Crawford (.923) and Florida’s Hanley Ramirez (.891), Milwaukee’s Bill Hall (.869) and San Francisco’s Randy Winn (.834).

Never throw a changeup to Thome (1.424 BPS). It’s also a bad idea to toss salad (in baseball parlance) to LA’s Nomar Garciaparra (1.18), Minnesota’s Michael Cuddyer (1.139), Holliday (1.121), Atlanta’s Chipper Jones (1.111), Pujols (1.092), Cub Alfonso Soriano (1.091), Met Carlos Beltran (1.082), St. Louis’s Scott Rolen (1.062) and Texas’s Michael Young (1.056).

The sliders always seem flat to San Diego’s Josh Bard (1.121), Milwaukee’s Johnny Estrada (1.088), LA’s Marlon Anderson (1.047), Yankee Jason Giambi (1.016), Cleveland’s Travis Hafner (.986), Holliday (.962), Flordia’s Miguel Cabrera (.931), Crawford (.931), Yankee Johnny Damon (.920), LA’s Andre Ethier (.915).

Before moving on to some recommendations, note some surprises at or near the bottom of these rankings.

Since every big leaguer can hit a fastball otherwise he’d be watching like you and me, expect bigger things from 96th ranked Prince Fielder (Brewers, .800) and Houston’s Morgan Ensberg (92nd at .808)

I expect to see Toronto’s Royce Clayton at the bottom of the curve rankings (.208, and that’s average PLUS slugging). But eyebrows arch while noting Cleveland’s Grady Sizemore (.412) and Posada (.395) near the bottom.

The worst of the qualifying hitters against the changeup and slider were Seattle’s Adrian Beltre (.688) and Baltimore’s Aubrey Huff (.647), respectively. But these are likely middle-of-the-pack success rates against those pitches.

Buy

Jose Reyes, SS, Mets: The BPS stats favor sluggers and Reyes held his own against all pitches. This year, I expect him to slug .500 with around 25 homers.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins: When you see a young player handle the curveball with the success noted above for Ramirez, there’s less reason to question his success.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: He’s very likely to hit the cheese better in the world’s Cheddar capital. At 22, he’s a future home run champ and will flex 35-homer muscle this year.

Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles: The pedigree to hit No. 3 is there, as he was not fooled last year by changeups (16th best hitter versus them, right behind Derek Jeter).

Hold

Barry Bonds, OF, Giants: If he’s losing bat speed, why was he 17th best versus fastballs last year (.966 BPS)? He also slugged .600 after the All-Star Break.

Sell

Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians: Beloved by all, but 153 strikeouts last year and his inability to hit a curveball give me great pause. I need to see him close the holes in his swing before buying the hype.