Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

March 30, 2006
Avoiding Judgment Traps

Practice is over and the games will soon begin for real. Now is the time for hardcore baseball fans to put our predictions on the table. Fantasy players differ only in taking names before the first pitch and then keeping score.

To improve your chances, here are some common judgment traps to avoid.

We’re all wary of the Spring Training Trap, but it catches us anyway because the games seem like a close approximation of the regular season. But here’s a scientific reason to discount spring results: Yerkes-Dodson. No, he’s not a Peruvian middle reliever. It’s a law that’s been around for 100 years and states that peak performance requires sufficient arousal. When you get a small group of players fighting for their career against established veterans in practice mode, screwy things happen.

To avoid the Second-Half Stat Trap, remember that this is a random slice of time with no special relevance. You hear about it more than the first half because we tend to invest more meaning in things that happened most recently because they’re easier to recall.

Don’t feel trapped by the herd. Savvy stock investors have always understood that near unanimous agreement on anything is almost always wrong (think “Tech Stocks”). It generally pays to be contrarian.

Avoid the Radical Change Trap by remembering that the status quo is most likely. Odds are against projections that deviate too far from last year; so have sound reasons for predicting significant player improvement or decline irrespective of injury issues.

The Wishful Thinking Trap ignores the obvious fact that it’s far easier to fail than to succeed. There are but a handful of reasons why players get better. Listing all the reasons they get worse could fill the rest of this column.

Savvy fantasy players need a perfect balance of closed and open mindedness. Think about how you’re thinking. Have you abandoned core beliefs too easily for this week’s trend or are you stubbornly holding on to them despite sufficient contradictory evidence? Change your mind when the facts change, but make sure you don’t set that bar too high or low.

Now, some last-minute player recommendations.

Buy

Barry Bonds (OF, Giants): Going out on a limb here, but everyone has him too steeply discounted on the assumption that he’ll get hurt, suspended, jailed or other extremes of mostly wishful thinking. How can he be suspended for past crimes when the punishment then was merely counseling? If he only plays 120 games, you’re looking at .350-100-40-95. Remember, you get to replace him when he’s hurt.

Scott Rolen (3B, Cardinals): Still one of the best players in baseball at age 31 and fully recovered from shoulder surgery. Hitters coming off injuries are always good values because almost every expert assumes he’ll miss a lot of games again the coming year; but that’s a fallacy.

Joe Mauer (C, Twins): You should reach for a good-hitting catcher in a mixed league because so many solid players are always available waiver wires. Significant improvement from his solid ’05 should be expected because he’s only 22.

Sell

Juan Pierre (OF, Cubs): Yes, he’s very easy to project. But speed is incorrectly valued by fantasy players because punch-and-judy guys like Pierre kill you in homers and RBI. Where are you going to make those up? You can get away with these types in the middle infield, not the outfield. Aim for the middle of the steals category with players who combine power and speed.

Randy Winn (OF, Giants): The 31-year-old Winn is a replacement-level outfielder in a mixed league, in the Juan Encarnacion class (especially with Juan slated to bat second ahead of Albert Pujols). But people are playing for his fluky two months after being traded by Seattle: .359 with a .680 slugging percentage vs. .290/.425 for his career.