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In a perfect world, skills would be clearly reflected in a player’s statistical profile. But subtle factors often significantly distort the statistical black and white and mask the skills that are most likely to influence performance.

Cynics, especially those in the statistical community, say that skills are overrated because only on-field results ultimately matter. But I believe that the most reasonable expectation is for players to perform to their actual skill level, not necessarily last year’s stats.

The trouble is figuring out a way to objectively measure skills. That’s easier now thanks to fine work by Baseball Info Solutions via its Bill James Handbook. Before making recommendations, let’s broadly look at who has the best quantifiable pitching skills in each league.

The Yanks Chien-Ming Wang, maybe the most interesting pitcher in baseball, throws over four groundballs for every flyball, leading the AL. Arizona’s Brandon Webb does him one groundball better in the NL. Padre Chris Young is the baseball’s most extreme flyball pitcher (twice as many flyballs as grounders). Cleveland’s Cliff Lee is closer to 1:1 in flyball ratio, but gets flyball honors in the AL (0.79 grounders for every flyball).

Seattle’s Felix Hernandez had the fastest average fastball among starters last year (95.2 MPH), just ahead of Detroit’s Justin Verlander (95.1). The NL leader was LA’s Brad Penny (93.9), followed closely by Giant Matt Cain (93.4) and Pirate Ian Snell (92.8).

The hardest thrower in baseball is Tigers reliever Joel Zumaya, with an incredible 233 pitches over 100 MPH. Second was Yankees reliever Kyle Farnsworth with just 26.

I love the slowest fastball stats. Padre Greg Maddux is the champ there, with an average speed of 83.4 MPH. But San Francisco’s $126 milllion-man, Barry Zito, had an average fastball clocking in at just 85.8 MPH. The slowest heater among current AL starters was thrown last year by Detroit’s Kenny Rogers (85.2).

Who throws the best individual pitches is determined by batting average plus slugging average (BPS) allowed. The best BPS on only fastballs in the AL was Zumaya’s .514. LA’s Jared Weaver’s heater reigned supreme among AL starters, with teammate John Lackey (.621) best in the AL among pitchers logging 160-plus innings. The NL’s best fastball last year was thrown by Roger Clemens (.518), with the Mets John Maine right behind at (.529).

Here are the best starters by league for the remaining pitches, again measured by BPS. Curveball: NL Brandon Webb (.373), AL A.J. Burnett (.317); Changeup: NL Anthony Reyes (.415), AL Johan Santana (.352); Slider: NL Scott Olsen (.280), AL Casey Fossum (.261).

Now, let’s use our skills measurements to make some pitching recommendations.

Buy

John Maine, Mets: He’s had a great spring, struck out seven per nine innings last year and had the second best fastball among big-league starters. He gets no respect because he was a non-entity heading into ’06.

Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees: He struck out a pathetic three per nine innings in ‘06. But there’s some evidence he got punch outs when needed. The league slugged .375 vs. that sinker, which he threw 74 percent of the time at an average speed faster than Johan Santana’s.

Scott Olsen, Marlins: Maybe the league’s most exciting young lefty if he can cut his walks to between three and four per nine innings. He has the most effective breaking stuff in the league and his heater hits 92 MPH.

Hold

Ervin Santana, Angels: His average fastball was in the top 10 in velocity and effectiveness. He just needs the confidence to throw it more.

Justin Verlander, Tigers: We know about the heater, but his changeup is thrown with great frequency and effectiveness (top 10 in both). This more than compensates for workload/spring training concerns.

Brett Myers, Phillies: I don’t like guys with plus fastballs being under 50 percent in throwing it. But Myers gets great results on his curve, which he throws 20.7 percent of the time (third most frequently, fifth lowest BPS against).

Sell

Kelvim Escobar, Angels: He’s got a the sixth fastest fastball in the AL, yet only three league-mates threw it less frequently (49.8 percent). Maybe this is why he always disappoints.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds: NL hitters won’t be fooled again by his league-high 1,350 pitches under 80 MPH and the second-lowest percentage of fastballs in the league (42.6 percent).

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