Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

March 16, 2007
Last Year's A.L. Bums

Before proceeding with the American League edition of Last Year’s Bums, let’s continue exploring player projection pitfalls.

Studious baseball fans generally are very skeptical that a player’s performance in, say, April and May will continue in June. When we’re living in the season, we see how volatile players stats are. End-of-season stats are viewed as something more concrete and meaningful. But that’s mostly because they never change as we ponder them all winter.

Many players are going to get a lot better this year and far more are going to get a lot worse. Injuries are a huge factor in this, as about 400 players end up on the DL every year (13 per team). Many of last year’s players will be replaced by newcomers who we’ve never seen at all or who have had little opportunity to demonstrate their skill.

We use a player’s past to guide us. But wise men say this is like driving forward while looking in your rear-view mirror. Yes, a player’s statistical history is useful in predicting what the range of his possibilities are. But we’re too tempted to believe that it actually represents this range. Player performance also can vary greatly even when skills remain unchanged. But stats that more precisely measure skills are not part of the common baseball lexicon.

We’re generally too generous with projections even when you discount unpredictable injuries. But there is a very small group of players who most projection systems treat unkindly and unfairly: Last Year’s Bums.

To qualify for Bum status, you must be viewed as a disappointment. In other words, if no one expected much from you last year and you delivered, you don’t make the cut. You also must appear healthy and have retained your starting job. That last qualification is tricky because managers are obviously quick to bench a Bum who happens to get off to a slow start, even in spring training.

Again, I’ll dispense with the Holds and Sells this week and put the Buy on everyone below, focusing on some statistics that better measure skills. But first here are some Bonus Bums from last year not expounded on below: Orioles 1B Aubrey Huff, Indians P Cliff Lee (out until May, abdominal), Red Sox SS Julio Lugo, Rangers OF Brad Wilkerson, White Sox P Mark Buehrle, A’s 1B Dan Johnson (should start at least until Mark Kotsay returns from back surgery), Mariners OF Jose Guillen and Red Sox C Jason Varitek.

Andy Pettitte, P, Yankees: No Yankees fan thinks of Pettitte as a bum. But his overall numbers last year were bad (4.20 ERA, 1.44 baserunners per inning) and now he moves into harder-hitting league. The 27 homers last year were a big problem; and 15 were hit on the road so you can’t just blame the park. To return that $16 million 2007 investment by the Yanks, he’ll have to be spot on with his control like in 2005 (1.9 walks per nine innings). Getting back into the top 10 in ground ball percentage will reduce homers but increase his hits allowed.

Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox: Still only 27 and finally coming off a 200-inning season. Yes, the ERA was an unsightly 5.01, but there’s no way he again gives up homers on 17 percent of flyballs (11 percent is average). Led the majors with 1072 pitches over 95 MPH.

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians: Maybe his very good 2005 was a fluke. But that’s no more likely than his horrible 2006 being one. He strikes out too much (once per game), but can finally see now after off-season LASIK eye surgery.

Bobby Crosby, SS, A’s: Played last year with a cracked vertebra. Seemed likely to be a perennial all-star until injuries derailed him beginning in ’05. A healthy Crosby has decent chance to smack 25 homers and hit .275 at age 27, when many players peak.

Eric Chavez, 3B, A’s: Lots of underachievers in last year’s A’s lineup. Chavez had a series of nagging injuries. He hit .197 against lefties, who always vex him. But there are only two southpaws currently projected as starters in the rest of the AL West.

Felix Herandez, P, Mariners: Had the fastest average fastball (95.2 MPH) among big-league starters. Opponents his .312 on balls in play versus him, just .253 in ’05. His luck should be better.

Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels: Lost the season to mono, giving him a reputation as a softie. But he’s had a great spring, flashed adequate power and reclaimed the starting job. Last spring, Kotchman was one of baseball’s top hitting prospects.

Daniel Cabrera, P, Orioles: Our most volatile bum. He will either be very good or very bad, depending on his control and mechanics. He has the toughest slider to hit in the AL (minimum 160 innings) and threw 834 fastballs last year over 95 MPH.