Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

March 9, 2006
Hitting Stats Transcend Fantasy

This is a weekly fantasy column for baseball fans, flying in the face of silly attempts to separate the two groups. All that divides them is the fantasy owner’s desire to seek more control over his (or her) rooting interests.

What all baseball fans share is a passion for predicting how players will perform, regardless of whether these players are a personal collection from across the majors or a geographic batch assembled by the hometown GM.

Statistics are a big part of what we do here because they are a big part of baseball. Ours are less familiar at the moment. But remember that the stats we grew up with were created to place an objective value on the player and to guide us on what we should expect from him in the future, regardless of his current streak or slump.

Today, mostly due to the collective wisdom of millions of fantasy fanatics over the past 20 years, fans are able to drill down further, find better corollaries, and cross-check the statistical staples for predictive reliability.

For example, a pitcher’s ERA and hits allowed and a batter’s average and runs and ribbies are very often a product of chance or team factors beyond his control. Groundball and flyball ratios significantly impact batting average and homers. A player’s home park can dramatically alter statistics. And, of course, leagues play a big factor, too, given the differing rules regarding the DH.

Are these newer methods fool-proof? Of course not. Predicting the future is hard. The goal is to be right about twice as often as we’re wrong. We advise to buy low and sell high, but not by rote. The player also must be shown to be over or underachieving based on our battery of stats.

This week, we’ll look at some hitters who are being over and undervalued around the majors and tell you why so that you can use these methods to assess anyone you want.

Buy

Jorge Cantu (2B, Devil Rays): Many stat-heads abhor him because of his low walk percentage (just 4% of plate appearances). But his 13% K-rate supports a .280 average. Plus the homers are real (top 25 with a 25% fly ball rate).

Clint Barmes (SS, Rockies): The majors 11th most extreme flyball hitter gets half his home games at Coors and fills the shortstop hole. Grab him on the prospect of 25 homers.

Chad Tracy (1B, Diamond Backs): His unexpected power last year (27 bombs) is viewed by most as a ceiling. It’s not. Tracy was the majors 13th most extreme flyball hitter in ’05.

Placido Polanco (2B, Tigers): Here’s why Polanco will hit about .320: he struck out the fewest times in baseball, hit the most grounders (there’s a 30-point average difference on those vs. flyballs) and led the majors in line drive percentage (24%; and line drives are hits 74% of the time).

Sell

Jonny Gomes (OF, Devil Rays): The .282 average last year can’t be supported as long as he continues striking out 28% of the time. This also will make him prone to long slumps with super-phenom Delmon Young ready and waiting.

Austin Kearns (OF, Reds): The power will remain illusory as he was among the league’s trailers in flyball percentage (15%). Wily Mo Pena’s homer ceiling is also lowered by this inability (15%). Plus, both strike out too much (league high 35% for Pena and 24% for Kearns).

Ryan Howard (1B, Phillies): The homers will keep flying out given the solid flyball rate (27%) and cozy confines (Citizens Bank Park is the league’s fifth-best homer park). But Howard struck out 29% of the time and that could kill your average should it continue.