Baseball By The Numbers By Michael Salfino

March 9, 2007
Load Up on Last Year's Bums

Spring training is projection season. We all do it because it’s fun to take a stab at calculating how players and, by extension, teams are likely to perform.

A recent study by demonstrates how the projecting pros, using the most sophisticated algorithms and computer programs, are able to correctly peg just one-fifth of players to 10 percent accuracy (either way) in cumulative stats. If 10 percent sounds great, remember, it’s scored a success when the projected .300 hitter hits .270-to-.330. Projections are most generally overly optimistic by about 20 percent. There’s a gravity continuously pulling player performance downward, as it’s much easier to do poorly at this almost impossibly difficult game than to do well.

For teams, the effects of this projection variable can be dramatic. Dan Schlewitz in Ken Ross’s book, “A Mathematician at the Ballpark,” performed a statistical study that concluded that even narrow ranges of performance added across a roster and league can transform can cause the same team to range from 67-to-95 wins.

So, what the heck am I doing here projecting player performance? These facts inform my projections. What players did last year doesn’t mean much.

And while there’s a statistical probability that a player is going to be whatever his average is, keep an eraser handy for those penciled numbers. Remember, there’s a statistical probability that person is going to have 2.3 children; but how many people do you know with a third of a kid?

Possible outcomes can vary widely between best and worst seasons and the limits of an unproven players scouting upside or downside. Dramatic changes relative to last year are sustainable throughout a season. I look for signs of change early and often, focusing not just on raw stats, but the underlying skills that provide the foundation for player performance. I’ll expound on some of these in the player notes below.

So, the very bad last year can end up being very good in 2007, or at least as good as they’ve been previously (assuming good health and regular playing time).

Borrowing a phrase coined by colleague Gene McCaffrey (WiseGuyBaseball.com), we’ll call this group “Last Year’s Bums.” Let’s put only National Leaguers under the performance microscope this week and search for some cause for optimism in 2007.

But first, here are some Bonus Bums from last year not expounded on below: Diamondbacks 3B Chad Tracy, Cubs OF Matt Murton, Marlins RF Jeremy Hermida, Brewers 2B Rickie Weeks, Astros 3B Morgan Ensberg, Reds SS Alex Gonzalez. For the sake of argument, lets do away with the Sells and Holds and Buy all Bums (at a discount).

Tim Hudson, SP, Braves: His expected ERA remained around 4.00. But the actual one was 4.86. Why can’t he get a little lucky again? His Ks per nine innings were up. But the high homer rate (17 percent of fly balls) has held steady since ‘05.

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: Forget 49 homers (2001), can Helton even smack 30 again? The flyball ratio hasn’t changed, but his rate of homers on them has been halved. The chances of him doubling last year’s total (15) is much greater than you think.

Pedro Feliz, 3B, Giants: He’s a .250 career hitter, so normal for him is .225-to-.275. A power decline has been masked by an increase in flyballs, resulting in the lower average.

Adam Dunn, OF, Reds: Dunn (.234) hit an okay .266 before (’04) and can do it again. He hits the ball hard when he hits it, so his average on balls in play should be at least 10 percent higher than the .276 in ‘06.

Brad Lidge, RP, Astros: A 5-plus ERA with 104 Ks (36 walks) in 75 innings is about the worst of all possible outcomes and will not happen again.

Randy Wolf, SP, Dodgers: He’s moved into a much better pitching environment and could beat his best season, which was pretty good. Last year was year one after Tommy John surgery.

Anthony Reyes, SP, Cardinals: Not a known quantity. But unless every scout was wrong about him he should do much better than a 5-ish ERA in ’07. Still was almost 2:1 in K:BB in ’06.