AL Stock Watch By David Ferris

March 23, 2007

We'll look at some small-market hitters to open, and we'll go through some closing-time thoughts to finish. Fantasy Baseball has our 24/7 attention once the windows open in March, so let's see who's closing with a rush as spring training winds down.

Hitters

BUY

Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals – Normally it's not cost-efficient to go after a flashy, ballyhooed rookie like Gordon, but his profile isn't expanded by the anonymous team he plays for, so here's a rare chance to snag the Rookie of the Year favorite and not blow your budget in the process. Gordon has been on every pitch this spring (.390 average, .500 on-base percentage, .659 slugging), and he'll begin the year batting fifth in a Royals lineup that's probably a little better than most realize. Heck, you can probably grab Gordon and running mate Mark Teahen and not go over $30 for the duo; mine those small-market rosters, there are plenty of values to be had.

Julio Lugo, 2B/SS, Red Sox – An uneven 2006 puts Lugo on the mildly discounted pile, and we're happy to write a buy ticket on this dynamic offensive player batting at the top of a loaded Boston lineup. Lugo also carries two positions from his logs last year, a nifty perk that affords you some flexibility as you navigate the notorious underbelly position in AL-only leagues. The Red Sox don't red-light the running game as much as some think; Lugo will have no problem getting 20 or more bags at his new address.

SELL

Jorge Cantu, 2B, Devil Rays – He's a free-swinger, a liability on defense, and a potential victim of the roster gridlock in Tampa Bay. Rather than play lineup roulette every night as you hope your guy is on the field, you're better served to steer away from Cantu completely. It's not hard to see that Joe Maddon has a soft spot for Ty Wigginton, at the possible expense of Cantu.

HOLD

Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins – A post-hype kid who made good with a big 2006, Cuddyer is slotted for another strong year but oddly it's not costing that much at the table (the fantasy public seems to be skeptical that he can match last year's stat grab). Cuddyer's earned our trust with a solid camp (.375 average, 10 runs, four homers), and his spot in the Minnesota lineup (between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau) will massage his run production nicely.

Pitchers

BUY

Rich Harden, SP, Athletics – He's been more of a tease than anything over the last few years – Harden has never logged 190 innings in a season due to a myriad of health problems – but it's impossible to look away from his power arm this spring ( 1.32 ERA, 25 strikeouts over 13.2 innings). With a big park and a friendly division nicely set in place, it's time to ask "do you feel lucky?" when Harden's name comes up. His downside is well established, but his upside could put a trophy on his mantle – and on yours.

Mariano Rivera, SP, Yankees – For years he was the BMW of closers, the big ticket item, but with Joe Nathan and B.J. Ryan drawing attention with their gaudy strikeout numbers, and with Jonathan Papelbon re-entering the ring in Boston, we're finally at a point where Rivera is a shade under the radar. The Hall-of-Famer in waiting has been letter-perfect this month, working seven snappy innings (no runs, three hits, no walks, seven strikeouts).

SELL

Bobby Jenks, RP, White Sox – He's been knocked around all spring (10.50 ERA, seven walks, just two strikeouts), he's barely touching 90 on the radar gun, and let's be clear on one thing – Jenks has never been in marathon shape. Ozzie Guillen isn't afraid to make changes at the end of his bullpen if the situation calls for it, and he's certainly stocked with a lot of potential closing options behind Jenks (including Mike MacDougal). History tells us at least one-quarter of the Opening-Day closers won't last the year, and Jenks is as much a red-flag candidate as anyone out there.

HOLD

Chad Orvella, RP, Devil Rays – The only real thing we know about the Tampa Bay closing situation is that Seth McClung isn't going to be the guy – he's flopped terribly this spring. Orvella has some post-hype sparkle to him (he's a prospect who's already disappointed fantasy owners once), and his ceiling is considerably higher than anyone else in the motley crew known as the Devil Rays bullpen. Get to the set and watch those ninth innings carefully, especially in the early days of April, and be aggressive with those early FAAB bids and waiver-wire plays.