AL Stock Watch By David Ferris

March 16, 2007

Green may be the color of the weekend, but in the marketplace we live in, the only colors that matter are black (for profit) and red (for loss). Here's a look at the risers and fallers in the current market.

HITTERS

BUY

Mark Teahen, OF, Royals – He's been shifted to the outfield but don't look at it as a demotion – the Royals have one of the best hitting prospects in baseball (Alex Gordon), which was reason enough to make the move. As for Teahen, here's a guy who quietly put up a .290-70-18-69-10 line in two-thirds of a season last year, and because he did it for a putrid team, it didn't garner a lot of attention. Mine those small markets, because non-contending clubs can still offer something for your fantasy roster, and at reasonable prices to boot.

SELL

Craig Monroe, OF, Tigers – He's coming off career-best numbers in the power stats, but don't overlook the .255 average or the patellar tendinitis he's dealing with this spring. Monroe won't get any help from his home park (he hit a puny .226 at Comerica last season) and he's a non-factor on the bases, so let someone else overpay for a career year.

Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox – His swing looks all messed up this spring, leading to speculation that his finger injury from last year hasn't healed properly. Even if the physical concerns go away with Crisp, keep in mind he'll be batting at the bottom of the Boston order – he was considered a fair replacement for Johnny Damon a year ago, but no one's saying that now.

Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B, Yankees – He's known for his glove, for his funky last name, and for scooping up the 2004 World Series game ball and never letting go. But Mientkiewicz might as well step up to the plate with a lawn chair and something to read, because he's no treat when it comes to swinging the bat (as we've seen in a 1-for-19 spring). The short porch in Yankee Stadium's right field is inviting for a lot of left-handed batters, but we're not expecting Mientkiewicz to get there often (his career slugging percentage is barely over .400). And when the Yanks face left-landed starters, Mientkiewicz probably won't be in the lineup to begin with.

HOLD

Jay Payton, OF, Orioles – He's never turned into the star many expected (remember those minor-league batting titles in the Mets system?), but he's carved out a solid career as a borderline starter. The Orioles seem to have an outfield stocked with too many options, but Sam Perlozzo insists he's prepared to give Payton the bulk of the work in left field, which should lead to $6-8 worth of value in AL-only leagues.

PITCHERS

BUY

Octavio Dotel, RP, Royals – Everyone has been pleasantly surprised by his velocity this spring, and don't worry about the home address – even 100-loss teams can support their closer for 25-30 saves. And with Joe Nelson headed for shoulder surgery, Dotel's leash couldn't be any longer than it is right now.

SELL

Jose Contreras, SP, White Sox – There's a lot of mileage in that 35-year-old arm, and we had to red flag him when his velocity dropped through the floor at the end of last summer. And even if Contreras is dialing it up in the mid-90s again this year, keep in mind the hitters always get the last laugh at U.S. Cellular Field.

Joel Pineiro, SP, Red Sox – On paper he's considered the closer, sure, but down in Fort Myers Terry Francona is scrambling around like a horse player trying to connect on a Pick-6; it's pretty clear this position is not solidified right now. Maybe Pineiro will be able to stick as part of a committee, but we can't see him holding down the job to himself, and his resume as a starter comes with a lot of crooked numbers on it. Don't be surprised if the eventual stopper in Boston is someone who isn't on the opening-day roster.

HOLD

Rich Harden, SP, Athletics – He loves to tease us with his potential – witness the nine strikeouts in 3.2 innings against Colorado Thursday. But keep in mind the physical problems Harden has been through; back and elbow injuries limited him to nine starts last year, and he's never hit the 190-inning mark in any season. There's a time and a place where gambling on Harden makes sense, but anyone who selects him over more-reliable teammate Danny Haren is kidding themselves. The siren may still be singing, but we've taken the headphones off.