NFL Forecast - Week 9 By Michael Salfino

Week 9 NFL Notebook

NFL Forecast

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I think I’m the only person in the country other than Marshall Faulk who thinks the Rams are good. I know it’s probably a fluke that Marc Bulger has only one pick this year. And they really got smacked around by the Chargers. But the offense can do it all and the defense is, at least, aggressive with the blitzing. I think their matchup in St. Louis versus KC is going to be very high scoring. But I like the Rams to cover behind Bulger and Holt, who Ty Law is not going to be able to cover without help (and the Chiefs have things set up so that he doesn’t get help).

The Ravens haven’t over-achieved according to my key stats. The 4-6 defense can cause trouble if you aren’t really sound in your pass protection, which the Bengals haven’t been. This is a tough spot to expect a bounce-back peformance from Carson Palmer, who was big enough to admit this week that he’s not playing well (despite the okay stats). Offensively, the Ravens have to give up the ghost that is Jamal Lewis (who they wasted 30-plus carries on last week).

Here’s a complete take on the Giants-Texans that I did for SNY.TV.

David Garrard is getting the “he just wins” treatment from the media. The better argument for playing him over Leftwich is that Byron just isn’t that good. Leftwich has no touch, poor pocket awareness and very spotty accuracy. So, he’s a waste of time as a starter. The best thing we know about Garrard right now is that he hasn’t proven he can’t be the better option. But he was in no significant way responsible for last week’s very predictable upset win at Philly. Vince Young needs to continue to show progress, even if it’s slight. I think he backslid a little last week, despite the win.

What’s happened to the Redskins defense? They simply cannot defend the pass and the trouble starts with the fact that they are last in the NFL in sack percentage. This is a great matchup for Romo, who should dominate with all those good receivers, including rediscovered tight end Jason Witten. The Redskins’ attack has no chance of overcoming their defensive deficiency against a very spry and active Cowboys unit, which dominated Jake Delhomme and the disappointing Panthers in Week 8.

You really have to like football or have some considerable fantasy stock active to watch Packers at Bills. And if you are invested in either of these teams, where are you going? Ahman Green gets stuffed. And I don’t think Lee Evans does anything against Al Harris. You have to go all the way back to Week 3 for any No. 1 receiver to have their way with Harris. But Pianow says he expects a good day and I hope he’s right because I have to play Evans in a couple of places this week.

We can say that Reggie Bush has been a bust so far, right? It’s not against the law? We’re not going to be waterboarded at Guantanamo if we have the temerity to even suggest the obvious, are we? But the Saints don’t care right now because they have stolen Drew Brees and seventh-round WR Marques Colston. I like Deuce McAllister here. The Bucs offense is hopeless and the Saints now have film to study Bruce Gradkowski, who torched ‘em in his debut.

Michael Vick is playing up to the hype, which is a scary thing for the NFL, for sure. If he does it three weeks in a row, a good bet against the putrid Lions secondary, he’s very likely turned the corner on his way to superstardom on merit.

Can the Bears put a 40 on the board against Miami? Remember, the Dolphins pass defense gives up a lot of big plays. It would be fitting if Bernard Berrian looked like Wesley Walker again against the Dolphins, who not only have Wesley WELKER but who were on the receiving end of the historic performance by the former Jet almost exactly 20 years ago in that 51-45 thriller we always see on ESPN Classic. Do you know the Dolphins throw more than every team (percentage of plays) except Philly? I sure didn’t.

The Vikings need to bounce back, but I don’t think they do. Brad Johnson looks done. He can’t throw off his back foot and if you can’t do that, you can’t play in the NFL. I know that’s not the method of choice, but it’s often the method of necessity. I can see the Niners offense taking off in the second half of ‘06, I’m serious.

No pass rushers for the Chargers now, but will it matter against the Browns. Don’t be surprised if Reuben Droughns has a good day because San Diego’s run defense stats are all due to lack of attempts. On a per-rush basis, they’re 21st overall.

What’s the point of playing Tatum Bell if he’s got turf-toe on both feet and has lost much of his cutting ability and explosiveness? You’re not getting outside the Steelers 3-4 anyway, but you can gash them between the tackles with Mike Bell, especially with that zone-blocking scheme.