NFL Forecast - Week 6 By Michael Salfino

Week 6 NFL Forecast

NFL Forecast

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David Ferris' Game of the Week coming Saturday.

Click here for this week's computer forecast based on our Stat Power Index.

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Here's some thoughts on some of the other action this week:

Dolphins (+2) at Jets: Miami (1-4) has been done in by their offense. Everyone wants to blame Daunte Culpepper for the sacks, and he’s now been benched for Joey Harrington. But what about the run blocking for Ronnie Brown (3.3 yards per carry)? If it’s not the line, then we have to start questioning whether Brown, the second overall pick in the 2005 draft, is the new Blair Thomas. Miami is known for its defense, but continues to have problems against the pass, having allowed 23 TD passes in 2005 and already eight more in ’06. Chad Pennington must bounce back this week after being awful against the Jaguars because the Dolphins have the toughest run defense in the league on a per-carry basis (2.87 yards per attempt). Brown gets a Jets run defense that has allowed the most rushing yards, but is 23rd on a per-attempt basis. The bigger defensive problem for the Jets (2-3) is generating a pass rush, as they are 26th in attempts per sack and their entire front seven has six sacks in five games. Meanwhile, Chad Pennington has been dumped 16 times and the sixth-most frequently on a per-attempt basis. Miami’s pass rush is still good (sixth in sack percentage).

Giants (+3) at Falcons: Michael Vick wants people to shut up and let him play the way he wants. So we won’t discuss that he’s completing less than half his passes, can’t get his team in the end zone (just 45 red zone points in 17 possessions, the most red zone trips in the NFL on a per-game basis), is 31st in yards per pass attempt or even that he’s getting sacked more frequently than all but four QBs on a per-attempt basis. He’s a great runner and what else can you possibly want from a QB? He wins games, baby. What, do you think the Falcons win because of a defense that has yet to yield a TD pass despite being without DE John Abraham for most of the year (Abraham returns this week)? You want to credit the lightening and even more lightening backfield of Warrick Dunn (4.5 yards per rush) and rookie Jerious Norwood  (8.3, and that’s not a misprint)? Don’t be silly. The Giants run defense has been stellar (3.04 per attempt), but hasn’t seen anything like this. Vick is a terrible passer (19 percent poor throws, about 50 percent more than average), but may be the most electrifying runner in football. If he’s not, then the title may go to Norwood (an amazing one third of his runs are “big plays” of 10 or more yards). The Giants shocked me last week by absolutely throttling a Redskins team that had seemingly found itself. For all their offensive fire power, the Giants have trouble moving the ball into the red zone (only Denver has fewer red zone possessions than New York). The high-paid pass rush finally showed some signs of life last week, harassing Mark Brunell repeatedly and preventing the Redskins from exposing a secondary that is still vulnerable. Of course, exposing secondaries is not Vick’s game (unless he has the ball in his hands).

Now let’s quickly look around the rest of the action in the AFC East and NFC East:

The Bills (2-3) need to beat up the weak Lions secondary. Detroit (0-5) was feisty last week before self-destructing at Minnesota, but may start looking for a place to lie down the first time the opponent smacks them in the mouth. The Lions allow 28 points per game and have one of the least efficient pass defenses in football, so if you’re looking for the Lee Evans breakout game, this may be it.

Dallas (2-2) went to hell in a Hank Baskett last week. Yes, I’ve been waiting a long time to use that line. But that 87-yard bomb really turned the tide against Dallas last week. The Texans (1-3) used to be an easy mark for pass defenses, but David Carr has been very efficient thus far in Gary Kubiak’s new offense. There are still major problems in pass protection, however, and Dallas’ front seven can be a handful for anyone. The Texans pass defense is always bad and is again last in yards allowed per pass attempt. So expect Drew Bledsoe and Terrell Owens to finally be smiling after the final gun.

Donovan McNabb is really lighting it up for the Eagles (4-1). He’s averaging 14.6 yards per completion, which is extremely high for this post-West Coast offense era (the NFL average is usually about four yards less). Of course, it was bombs away last week and that really influenced these numbers. The (4-1) Saints secondary will be back on its heels after watching that film all week. The Eagles can’t keep the ball and clock moving when they have a lead, which is their weakness. In the NFL, you have to beat the opponent early with the passing game and then beat the clock late with the run. The Eagles have no between-the-tackle running game and McNabb (21 percent poor throws) isn’t accurate enough to manage a ball-control passing game. It really seems like the Eagles are set up for a let down, as no one takes the Saints seriously. The opportunity is there for New Orleans to make a real statement with a victory and don’t think they don’t know it.