| |
 |
NFL
Forecast - Week 5
By Michael Salfino
|
 |
Week 5 NFL Notebook and Computer Picks
David Ferris' Game of the Week now posted.
Computer forecast below.
Here's a viewing guide for each of this weekend's NFL games.
What could have been for the Jets last week. But Peyton Manning stuck the shiv in them after Eric Mangini handed him the knife with all those soft coverages with no blitzes. Drop 9 or 10 if you want. Or blitz six. But don’t play halfway. That’s like giving a great hitter a 90 mph fastball. It’s batting practice for Manning. I know the Jags defense hiccupped last week, but Jacksonville is 25th in YPA allowed and 22nd in yards allowed per play. They’re also 28th in sack percentage and will be missing most of their starting line this week. Chad Pennington can breathe a sigh of relief after having the Jaguars almost end his career last year around this time. Plus, the Jets line is coming around even though D’Brickashaw Ferguson almost got him killed on their first passing play last week. Ferguson has been very solid otherwise, however. And the Jets are even running the ball a little. Don’t be shocked if this gelling unit has its way at times with the Jaguars undermanned front-seven. Maurice Jones-Drew is very dangerous and must be watched closely whenever he’s on the field.
The Redskins should be favored at New York. That line is more than six points wrong according to my calculations (which usually have less than a three-point variance). What am I missing? Maybe nothing. Maybe this is a hedge against the Giants money that is itching to bet after taking last week off (bye). Brunell threw the ball downfield last week, but I need to see that happen again before I think about buying into his supposed rejuvenation as a thrower. Now, I do think he can be effective in this offense because they have great skill talent, a great scheme and great coaching. But good defenses should be able to handle him by squeezing those short routes and daring Brunell to throw long. I know it didn’t work for Jacksonville. But, no matter, the Giants are far from a good defense. All those pass rushers and they’re 32nd in sack percentage? It’s do or die for that front seven. Maybe Vegas is backing the more desperate team. I don’t think it will matter.
I can’t say much more positive about the Bears this week. Another decent test for Grossman. The Bills are 14th in YPA allowed but have played some good QBs: Brady, Pennington, Brad Johnson, Daunte…. Oh, right, that last guy stinks. Grossman has converted 60 percent his 20 throws on third and long (6-to-10 yards to go). But the big plays in the Bears passing game come on first and second down, where Chicago averages 8.3 and 8.9 YPA, respectively. The Bears are averaging only 2.6 yards on their 67 first-down rushes and that number should change as teams become more wary of the pass in those situations. So, I’m bullish on the Bears’ Thomas Jones.
That’s a long Bears note, so I’ll handle the Bills separately. Still making up my mind about J.P. Losman. He’s converting 25 percent of his third and longs, which doesn’t cut it. And he’s averaging just 3.55 YPA overall on third downs. However, Losman is 8.65 per attempt on first and 10, though the Bills are running twice as much on those downs as they throw. They’re going to need explosive plays in the passing game to have a chance in Chicago, which hasn’t allowed double-digit points in nine of their last 11 home games (thanks to Scott Pianowski for that stat).
The Panthers are worrying me. It goes beyond Steve Smith, who looked fine last week. When you’re bottom 10 in four of our five Power Rankings categories, you’re in trouble. The only thing they’re okay in now is Net Interceptions, which are more variable than any of those categories at this point. The Browns have actually fared better in ’06 than the Panthers (who I admit have had the tougher schedule). Yes, Cleveland is banged up at corner (bad news vs. Smith). But I think Cleveland takes them down to the wire if they can pass protect a little and its line held up pretty well against a Ravens defense which is at least as solid (in fact, Baltimore is No. 1 in sack percentage, the Panthers 19th).
The Lions are very bad at stopping the pass, which means they are very bad. That’s pretty much all you need to know about a team, unless they have a Hall of Fame QB capable of overcoming that consistently. Mike Martz is getting the offense into gear. The Lions are seventh in passing yards per game. We subtract sacks, of course, and the Lions are 22nd ranking in attempts per sack is the Achilles’ heel. The Vikings pass defense is pretty good, but they can’t generate a rush (29th in plays per sack). I think Kitna is due for a multi-pick game, as his defense keeps putting him in too big a hole.
The Dolphins are terrible. Culpepper has been sacked 21 times, the most in football. The Dolphins pass defense has cratered, as they’re 20th in YPA allowed. Remember, they gave up 23 TD passes last year. New England’s pass defense hasn’t rebounded like I thought it would, as they’ve been hit by another rash of injuries. But they handled Carson Palmer (not yet himself, I know) very easily last week. Brady will have a big game as Miami will be obsessed with stopping the run after seeing New England roll up 230 on Cincy all week in the film room.
Why are the Rams favored at Green Bay? I can make a case, for sure. But it seems like someone knows that Favre is hurt worse than he’s letting on. I think St. Louis has been feisty. I love the way Bulger is playing (no picks) and Green Bay is 31st in YPA allowed. I like Steven Jackson to have a break-out game.
The Bucs are dead. This line at New Orleans is where it should be if Chris Simms was playing. Now, maybe Vegas is as down on Simms as they are with a rookie QB (Bruce Gradkowski). But when you add the rookie to the problems on the line to Cadillac Williams’ back woes to the age and lack of talent at WR, it adds up to just about zero points. The Saints are third in Net YPA. I know the schedule has been kind, QB wise. But they might be for real. We won’t find out here, unless they lose, of course. They won’t. Reggie Bush has to be unleashed in the passing game pronto.
Man, 18.5 is a big number in early October for Titans at Colts. But it’s warranted. I’m in the minority, but I think Vince Young is going to be a special player. It’s going to come suddenly for him. It’s not going to be a gradual, steady climb like it was for Peyton Manning and many others. He’s going to suddenly get comfortable in making the run/pass decisions and then the NFL world will open up for him like an oyster. Not this week though. Peyton Manning will get the passing game going against the putrid Titans’ secondary. Remember, that’s the team he’s blowing out in the DirecTV commercials. Same deal here. The Titans have gotten lucky in stopping TD passes (just five allowed) despite their terrible YPA against. Two TDs for Marvin Harrison. Five for Manning.
I had a note about Leinart in a prior column. He’s going to have a very tough time this week against a still-underrated Chiefs defense. Here is the rookie performance of the last six QBs to enter the Hall of Fame (pro-rated over a 16 game season): 230-for-414 for 2,898 yards with 16 TDs and 16 picks. This stat courtesy of Elias Sports Bureau, which notes that half of the six had other professional experience before joining the NFL. Damon Huard looked good enough last week. Their pass defense is for real. I said all summer that Herm would get that part of the team into gear. If Trent Green comes back, the pieces are in place for this team to be very, very dangerous. Remember, that looked like the old Chiefs offense last week, too.
Yes, the Battle of the Bay of Pigs with the Raiders going into San Francisco. Andrew Walter has to show something for everyone’s sake, otherwise it’s back to Aaron Brooks, who we know stinks. I’m hoping for better things for Art Shell’s sake. Shell was a warrior, a ground-breaker as a coach and a man who deserves so much better than the Raiders are giving him. Having to listen to guys like Randy Moss and Jerry Porter snipe at him must kill Shell, who would have wrung both their necks at the same time (one in each hand) when he was their age. Alex Smith has to get back on track after the fiasco in KC last week. I still like him, but I did say there were going to be large bumps along the way.
Ferris is going to check in later with Cowboys at Niners, the RotoAction Game of the Week. I think Dallas should be favored. Their pass defense is good (eighth in YPA). They generate great pressure without conventional blitzing (seventh in sack percentage). The Eagles are losing lots of skill players on offense (or at least will have guys compromised). McNabb crashes this week and Dallas, I think, wins by a TD.
The Steelers are at the crossroads very early in 2006. If they lose this week, they’re in a scramble to even sneak into the playoffs. Sure, they were a No. 6 seed last year, but that’s not happening again. Ben Roethlisberger might be rusty or might just be having a bad year. I’m betting on the former, but he needed an easy game against a crappy pass defense last week, not a bye. A bye week doesn’t help you shake off rust. Marty Schottenheimer isn’t using his weapons. Antonio Gates is a forgotten difference maker. LaDainian Tomlinson is still very good but very likely on the downside from his peak at 1,800 career carries in a very short time. Don’t really have a feeling for this game, but the Steelers have been very bad this year and San Diego should be unbeaten.
I like this Ravens-Broncos Monday Nighter. Can Tatum Bell hold up as a feature back? This is an acid test. You can get big running plays against the 46 defense if you can find a crease, but you’re going to have to take your lumps most plays before you find one. Jake Plummer has to step up, too, and show that the playoff disaster last year is behind him. I think Shanahan drafting Cutler allowed that weed to really grow and it’s going to be really tough now to get rid of. I give McNair credit for getting it done when it most matters, but the Ravens offense has been a disaster 90 percent of the season, let’s be honest. The Ravens aren’t ranked higher than 24th in any of our key offensive efficiency stats.
Here are the computer predictioins for Week 5 based on our NFL Stat Power Index, which ranks all the teams.
In case you're wondering, I'm letting the computer handle my staff picks, as I suck at it and hate hating myself about it. Remember, the lines are good. Team performance deviates too far from average every week for past performance to be a reliable indicator. But based on how teams played mostly thus far and a little in 2005, here's how the Computer sees NFL Week 5.
We have weighted 2006 rankings 75 percent and 2005 rankings 25 percent.
So, on with the....
RotoAction Computer Picks for Week 5 (Vegas line here)
Colts by 17 over Texans
Redskins by 2 at Giants
Vikings by 10 over Lions
Saints by 9 over Bucs
Rams by 1.5 at Packers
Patriots by 9 over Dolphins
Bears by 8 over Bills
Panthers by 4.5 over Browns
Jags by 6 over Jets
Chiefs by 5 at Cards
Niners by 4 over Raiders
Cowboys by 1 at Eagles
Chargers by 8 over Steelers
Broncos by 1 over Ravens
|
