NFL Forecast - Week 4 By Michael Salfino

Week 4 NFL Forecast and RotoAction Lines

NFL Forecast

This Week's Forecast RotoAction NFL Line Staff Picks Archive Week 10 Week 9 Week 8 Week 7 Week 6 Week 5 Week 4 Week 3 Week 2 Week 1

David Ferris joins us separately with his extensive analysis of Patriots at Bengals, the RotoAction "Game of the Week." Also check out our Staff Picks and Ferris’ Fantasy Football Matchup Meter (courtesy of our client, the Boston Herald).

Otherwise, it’s a different format this week, as I’m struggling with a knee that needs surgery. But I still want to do something substantive. Fortunately, the Stat Power Index has come to the rescue. I’ve also beefed up the Week 4 Notebook (below).

We have weighted 2006 and 2005 rankings equally. It seems to work, as our computer calculations based on them have resulted in just four  games outside of three points difference from the Vegas line: Colts-Jet, Saints-Panthers, Niners-Chiefs and Packers-Eagles. But Vegas I think is properly weighting the presence of Donovan McNabb and absence of Trent Green in the final two lines. Of course, our rankings do not adjust for injuries and do not give any added significance to how teams have played most recently. If you want to make those adjustments, you’ll have to do it yourself. Those things are more art than science.

So, on with the RotoAction Line for Week 4 (Vegas line in parentheses):

Colts –3.5 at Jets (Colts –9)

Chargers pick ‘em at Ravens (Chargers –2.5)

Vikings pick ‘em at Bills (Vikings +1)

Cowboys –7 at Titans (Cowboys –9)

Niners +10.5 at Chiefs (Niners +7)

Saints +3 at Panthers (Saints +7)

Cardinals +7 at Falcons (Cardinals +7)

Lions +8.5 at Rams (Lions +5.5)

Dolphins –1.5 at Texans (Dolphins –3.5)

Patriots +8 at Bengals (Patriots +6)

Jaguars –1.5 at Redskins (Jaguars –3)

Browns pick ‘em at Raiders (Browns –3)

Seahawks pick ‘em at Bears (Seahawks +3)

Packers +5 at Eagles (Packers +11)

Some quick comments on these lines before we go on to our Notebook.  It’s clear that Vegas doesn’t believe in Chad Pennington yet. But the Jets weren’t really near being the worst team in football even without him. They were merely bad.

Trent Green is worth at least three points. So, that line is properly set. Is Donovan McNabb worth six points? That’s borderline. The Eagles lost Westbrook at the end last year, too, when they really cratered. So the six points becomes easier to rationalize. Personally, I wouldn’t touch this game. But I don’t touch any game and you shouldn’t either.

The Saints-Panthers is interesting. The Panthers have done nothing to justify this kind of line in ’06. The Saints performance last week seems to be completely discounted as some sort of New Orleans, homecoming voodoo. I agree with the computer on this one.

Week Four Notebook:

I like the stuff in the Breakfast Table about the Colts and their use of the shotgun and Pop 2 blocking schemes versus the 3-4. It’s hard to get the guards out there to block off linebackers when the QB is sitting seven yards back from scrimmage. The angles are all screwed up. Alas, the Jets don’t have any edge rushers, unless Bryan Thomas can really step up. Dominic Rhodes is averaing 2.3 per carry on first down and 3.0 in the second half. That’s terrible. Joseph Addai needs to play a lot more and that’s coming. Manning is throwing 67 percent of the time in the first half, which is what you want to see if you own him. He could throw 100 percent of the time in the first half and the Colts would absolutely destroy just about everyone.

That 46 defense the Ravens use is susceptible to the tight end. Always has been. But will the Chargers use the passing game aggressively or try to power out a win with their running game and defense? San Diego has run 65 percent of the time during the first half of games. Of course, they haven’t played anyone of note.

I was impressed with J.P. Losman last week. But the Bills want to be a running team, especially on first down. If they’ve scouted themselves and open up with some play action, they’ll generate big passing plays. So Lee Evans owners have some hope this week.

When does Tennessee decide it needs to look at LenDale White and Vince Young? Experience isn’t a factor for White. But you need to see if he’s a feature back before the 2007 draft. Young needs to play because his game isn’t predicated on classroom stuff as much as it is on instinct. So, he’s not going to learn enough in QB meetings and observing on the sideline, especially given how different his game is from Kerry Collins.

Has any running back ever fumbled three weeks in row on the goal line, losing every one? I doubt it. Obviously, Frank Gore’s value takes a hit. Former Penn State QB Michael Robinson really ran with power in those situations after Gore got hurt. The KC pass defense is underrated, however, so Antonio Bryant should not be expected to have a big day.

It seemed like Reggie Bush got on the field a little more on Monday night. Previously, it was about a third of the time. That’s not enough for him to generate significant value or to justify the cost of drafting and signing him. I thought they’d line him up as a receiver more, but they seem satisfied with guys like Devery Henderson and Marques Colston. The Panthers have some offensive line problems and that was expected to be a strength. Why didn’t the Dolphins sign Drew Brees? That may go down as a career killer for Saban.

I wrote in my newspaper column this week how poorly even Hall of Fame QBs have generally performed as rookies. Leinart is a classroom guy and similar enough to Warner that he can learn from watching him. I don’t think Leinart should play until the team has essentially given up on the season because you don’t want Leinart feeling the pressure to win on top of all the other stuff. What happened to the Texas Shotgun? The Saints made some adjustments, but the Falcons scrapped it pretty quickly. I assume the coaches saw that the jig was up and there was no point even trying. The Saints ends stayed inside and got support from the linebackers outside, but that’s when you have to start faking the run and passing out of that look. Oh, right, Vick can’t pass.

The Rams seem pretty feisty to me. I think Linehan has done a good job. The defense isn’t soft anymore. Bulger and Holt are coming around in the new system. This should be a breakout game for the St. Louis offense. The Lions offense is okay, but Kevin Jones isn’t consistent enough and misses too many open holes. Plus the receivers are weak outside of Roy Williams.

The Dolphins have to eat up the putrid Texans secondary, which is giving up about 10 yards per pass attempt. Culpepper and Chambers must explode and give Miami a quick knockout so they can get some confidence. It’s nice playing weak teams, but going down to the wire against them and winning doesn’t enhance the psyche. The Texans really protect Carr in these blowouts by staying with conventional playcalling and giving up any real attempt to win the game. It’s odd. I’m not yet sure if it’s right or wrong, strategically or in terms of player development.

Ferris has you covered on Pats-Bengals.

Mark Brunell threw three passes over five yards from scrimmage in his 22 straight completions last week. Only one went more than seven yards from scrimmage. Pianowski noticed it first and led me to anally review the Short Cut. That crap isn’t working against the Jaguars. And I don’t think Clinton Portis is healthy despite the big plays last week. Maurice Drew was electrifying last week, but he’ll disappear many weeks unless Fred Taylor gets hurt. Leftwich throws every pass like I used to in gym and before pick-up games in the park. Like he’s trying to impress people with his arm strength. You’re a pro, bro’, relax and just make the plays. They’re not choosing up sides and arguing over who gets to be the QB.

The Browns just threw a game away last week. I liked the moxie that Charlie Frye showed, but you can’t throw it anywhere (but especially late and on the goal line) UNLESS you see it. You can’t be hoping that something is there or try only to avoid a sack. I don’t see how Andrew Walter can be a big drop down from Aaron Brooks. Just throw it up to Randy Moss (who had always been the exception to the “see it first” rule, but may no longer be).

I’m fascinated by Seahawks-Bears. I disagree with the weighting for the Bears. I think Chicago is fundamentally different in 2006, even though their 2005 ranking was spot on. This team in No. 1 in Net-YPA and Net-PPA (points per pass attempt). If they finish up that way, they’re almost guaranteed to go to the Super Bowl. I know it’s early, but I like what I’m seeing from Grossman. They are throwing it downfield, too. The Bears are No. 1 in the league in percentage of passing yards in the air (all yards after catch is subtracted out). That means the passing game has balls (sorry, kiddies). As I said in the Table, this is a tough week for the Seahawks to install a fundamentally different (four wideout) offense. But expect a lot of Mack Strong in those formations because the extra blocker is more important than the extra receiver.