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NFL
Forecast - Week 3
By Michael Salfino and David Ferris
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Week 3 NFL Forecast - Live Week 3 Blog Sunday!
David Ferris joins us this week for the Sunday nighter, Broncos-Patriots. Ferris is a HUGE Mike Shanahan fan.
Remember to check our Week 3 Notebook on this page). All other opinions the sole responsibility of Mike Salfino, in case you're looking to assault someone with a rusty spoon after losing the mortgage.
Consult Ferris' Matchup Meter (updated Saturday) for info on any players not covered here.
Remember, check out out this week's Staff Picks for predictions of all the games.
Bears (-3) at Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Talking Points: The Bears are number one in the NFL in Net YPA. They’re among the worst teams in both yards per carry and net yards per carry (minus-1.2). That tells you all you need to know about the importance of running stats.
Pianow doesn’t respect the Lions pass defense at all. The Packers pass defense was lit up last week by Drew Brees. Maybe the success of the Bears passing game is a mirage. The Vikings have been solid against the pass, though the Redskins and Panthers are near the bottom in YPA.
The key thing about Rex Grossman is that he’s never shown that he’s not good. This is the first real evidence we have of him and it’s obviously encouraging. The reports last summer before he got hurt were that he was looking Favre-ish, and they meant the explosive, playmaking Favre, not the mistake-prone mediocrity we’ve mostly been seeing lately.
The Vikings had lots of pressure protecting the passer against Carolina. But Julius Peppers seemed superhuman, so maybe it’s not evidence of any chronic problem. Plus Tommie Harris is the playmaker on the Bears defense and he works the inside and will have to deal with All Pro Steve Hutchinson, a very good pass protector.
My friend and colleague Chris Liss is high on Troy Williamson. I liked him prior the season and I like him now, just not as much as some. He has 16 targets this year, which doesn’t put him quite at a No. 1 receiver pace. However that is almost as much as Travis Taylor and Marcus Robinson combined (17 targets). Will Williamson be able to make the adjustment when coverages start rolling his way? Remains to be seen, but most young receivers struggle with this and Williamson was very raw in ‘05.
Prediction: This is a very big statement game for the Bears. If they go in and beat the Vikings and demonstrate their passing game is for real, they have to be considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender (they were not that last year). The Vikings don’t gain as much with a win because they’re supposed to win at home, regardless of the point spread. I like Brad Johnson, but I don’t think he’ll have answers to the problems presented by the Bears secondary. The Vikings running game showed little in ’06 before Chester Taylor ripped off that overtime run. Grossman hooks up with Muhammad and Clark. Thomas Jones has a nice day. Bears 24, Vikings 13.
Bengals (+2) at Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Talking Points: Was Ben Roethlisberger ready to play last week or was the Jaguars defense just more ready? I don’t like how the Steelers put Roethlisberger out there with a fever. It’s like a “House” episode with Big Ben this year.
Willie Parker is still a question mark in my book. Last year, when he wasn’t getting off, they would change things up with Bettis and the power running game. But what’s Plan B now? Najah Davenport? I can actually see that working if Davenport is remotely healthy.
The Bengals pass defense will get its biggest test, but how ready is Roethlisberger to play? CB Deltha O’Neal might not be able to make it (knee).
Cincy is on pace for 56 sacks after getting only 28 all of last season. If that’s for real, they might have a chance at replicating in ’06 their amazing ’05 success in generating interceptions.
When Cincy went into Pittsburgh last year and beat them, you really had the sense that the Steelers were done as a serious playoff team. Then, everything changed with Carson Palmer’s injury on the Bengals first play in the playoff game and Cowher and company were on their way.
Rudi Johnson is a much better back than I ever thought he’d be. He has nice hops on inside runs, avoiding contact while snaking his way through traffic. And he has a gear that I thought he lacked. Of course, I was on him last year when he had two TDs at midseason, but that was all based on the Cincy offense, not in any intrinsic belief in the player. Now, though, I think he’s quite good, especially behind that often dominant offensive line.
The Bengals offensive line will be without its leader, C Rich Braham, who is out indefinitely.
Prediction: The Steelers are in desperate straights. A home loss will put them in a seriously disadvantaged position in the division and make the Bengals or even the Ravens (who I don’t believe in) a clear favorite. I hate underestimating Cowher in these situations. If Roethlisberger was healthy, I’d fully expect him to loosen the reigns because he knows he’s going to need to get into the high 20s at least to win. But I think this is too much, too soon for Roethlisberger in ’06. The Bengals are the power running team, too. They could use a healthy Chris Henry (groin) or T.J. Houshmanzadeh (toe). But even if both are out, Kelley Washington is a capable playmaker. Bengals 30, Steelers 21.
Jaguars (+7) at Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Talking Points: Sooner rather than later, Joseph Addai will be given at least two thirds the snaps for the Colts, who, admittedly, don’t really need a running game. The Jaguars did concede the run last year in Indy.
Manning has 19 TDs and 5 INTs career against the Jags, but the Jaguars give the impression that they have success stopping Peyton.
Byron Leftwich gave the finger last year to the Colts coaching staff after they were trash talking him over the beating he was taking. Leftwich was fined for the incident. He didn’t play in the game in Jacksonville.
Leftwich is not a good passer. It bugs me to no end that no one says this. I know he can drill those intermediate routes, but he has no touch. This year, the poor-throw percentage is actually quite low. But the passes defensed number is up 50 percent relative to attempts. Good news: his receivers will get their hands on many overthrows due to their gigantic wingspans.
Leftwich winds up when he throws like the guys who test the radar gun machine with the baseball toss on the boardwalk. And he needs about four feet in front of him to stride. Not and economical motion or release, for sure.
Fred Taylor may be one of those workhorse backs. Who’s the short-yardage and goal-line runner if not him? Toefield wasn’t even active last week (they need Jones-Drew to return punts). But I don’t think Taylor is really dangerous anymore.
Peyton was piling up stats last week with the Texans already dead and buried. You had the sense he was trying to warm up for this one. I get the feeling the 10 points at home last year and the 120 passing yards really sticks in his craw and he’s going to come out blazing.
Dwight Freeney was a monster against Jacksonville in that game in Indy last year and he’ll be mightily missed if he can’t go.
Reggie Williams has more than a pulse right now and I’m shocked, as I had totally written him off. But he’s still a young player.
Prediction: Manning goes for 300 and three scores as he is more aggressive than usual because of questions in the kicking game; Indy doesn’t want a defensive, field-goal game this week. Addai outplays Rhodes again, but gets shut out of the end zone. Leftwich completes half of his passes with a TD and two picks. Taylor has 100-plus yards but doesn’t score. Why am I making fantasy predictions when I swore them off? Okay, enough of that. Colts 28, Jaguars 20.
Jets (+5.5) at Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Talking Points: The Bills are better than the Jets on a neutral field? Why? And a field goal better? Obviously, Vegas doesn’t believe in The Reemergence of Chad.
J.P. Losman is getting props for being a system QB and not losing games. But QBs have to win games on 99 percent of the teams that want to go anywhere. We’ve had some non-descript guys win Super Bowls on great defensive teams, but that is overstated simply because a couple of those teams (Ravens, Bucs) have won this decade.
I thought that Lee Evans would adjust better to being a No. 1 receiver because his game-breaking speed could loosen up coverages and give him operating room underneath and create bigger seams in the zone. But it hasn’t worked out that way yet.
The Jets secondary is underrated. Kerry Rhodes and Erik Coleman are one of the best safety tandems in football and Rhodes has the look of an All Pro. Justin Miller is coming on and showing why many felt he was a steal where the Jets landed him n 2005 (after K Mike Nugent). David Barrett rarely makes the big mistake.
Jonathan Vilma is getting pushed around at the point of attack now that lineman have a clear path to him when the Jets are in their 3-4 base. But he and Mangini will make adjustments.
Lots of people are down on Willis McGahee, including our man David Ferris. But he looks fast to me. Granted, he’s not a great short-yardage or goal-line runner, but coaches need to be more creative in those situations. Why don’t teams spread people out with multiple receivers and just QB sneak that yard or give it to the running back on a dive play? Why bother blocking guys when you can take them out of the play via formation?
Someone I respect said that Pennington couldn’t make the sideline throws last week. Look, Chad is never going to wow you like Kerry Collins used to on those sideline throws. But he is getting the job done: 12-for-17 on throws 11-to-30 yards from scrimmage (152.2 QB rating). You know how Pedro Martinez keeps striking guys out despite the 85-mph heater? That’s Chad when he’s healthy.
The Bills pass defense is given a lot of respect, but the bottom line is they’ve allowed 7.5 yards per attempt thus far. However, they have faced a great QB in Brady (one without any receivers of note) and an okay one in Culpepper (who still seems to be searching for his sea legs).
The Jets lack a running game that defenses are forced to respect. How you actually run it doesn’t matter much in football. But if defenses can disregard the threat of the run, you’re going to end up in trouble. Chad really needs to work that play-action passing game with his great ball-handling skills.
Prediction: The Jets rarely play well in Buffalo. This is the opener for the Bills and their fans will be very happy with the split thus far. Their stadium is said to be the loudest outdoor stadium in football (although I think it’s Arrowhead). Maybe this is why the line is out of whack. But the bottom line for me is that Pennington is a much better QB than Losman and he’s getting almost a TD. It might be too tough a game to win outright, but this has the makings of a game decided by a field goal, and the Bills have the better kicker. Bills 20, Jets 17.
Giants (+3.5) at Seahawks, Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Talking Points: The Giants should have raced off the field after Plaxico’s TD last week, kept their mouths shut and hid in embarrassment all week. Outgained 309 to 87 in the first half and then allow a 69-yard TD drive to start the third quarter. And still win. Unbelievable.
The Seahawks are looking very sound defensively after shutting down a very frightening Arizona passing game with relative ease last week. They match up against a Giants offense that, other than some terrible problems in protecting the QB last week (eight sacks), looks multi-dimensional and dangerous.
Something has to give on the other side of the ball. The Giants can’t cover and can’t generate a pass rush (despite all the hype all summer). Seattle hasn’t been able to get Shaun Alexander off and Matt Hasselbeck did nothing last week after the hot opening quarter.
Deion Branch and Darrell Jackson are a nice WR combination, assuming Branch can take to the West Coast. (I hate calling it that, but we’re stuck with it.) A transition period should be expected.
I think there’s a 40 percent chance this is the beginning of the end of Shaun Alexander. Next up, LaDainian Tomlinson. Or maybe, Tiki Barber. No one ever guesses how many guys in NFL history have more than 1,500 career rushing attempts. It’s around 40 (34 at the start of 2005).
Did Eli Manniing really play under pressure in that fourth quarter? Maybe on the last drive. I’ll give you that. But the other stuff was mostly garbage time. When the game is viewed as lost, it’s easier to perform. Now, I like Manning. I think he can be a great QB. That’s still on the table. But Giants fans talk like he’s proven that already (or is well on his way to). He hasn’t.
Prediction: I have no feel for this game. But these teams are concerning me. The cleanest unit so far is the Seahawks defense. The Giants offense is muddy until they prove those eight sacks last week were a fluke. So, I give the edge to Seattle. I don’t have confidence that the Seahawks can win a shootout, so the defense must step up and at least slow the Giants down. Seahawks 26, Giants 20.
Broncos (+7) at Patriots, Sunday, 8:15 p.m.
Talking Points: Everyone assumes Bill Belichick makes life hell for opposing QBs, but that hasn't always been true this year, in part because he's got a mediocre secondary that doesn't always tackle. The Jets collected some embarrassingly-long gains after the catch last week (to the New York crowd they were great plays – okay, maybe they were), and the Pats are allowing a 90.3 QB rating to the opponents. New England hasn't exactly played Montana and Fouts in the opening two weeks – they got past J.P. Losman and Chad Pennington, a draw that looked downright cushy back in August. I'm not trying to talk you into Jake Plummer here, just know that his task might not be as impossible as you think. His wideouts do come with some fleas, though; Javon Walker is off a major injury and with a new team, and old reliable Rod Smith is making it back from a concussion. When push comes to shove in crunch time, Plummer probably will fall back into familiar habits, and that means looking for Smith along the sideline.
The Pats are stuffing the run like nobody's business – 3.1 a carry this year - and the defensive unit was very stingy over the last two months of 2005, too. The linebackers are still decent and the linemen are superb, so the Bell System from Denver definitely has its work cut out on Sunday night. But it's a little silly how people insist the platoon isn't working – Tatum's at 5.5 yards a carry and Mike's at 4.4. The team overall gets five yards a pop. What's wrong with that? Mike Shanahan's job is to win football games, not fantasy championships.
Denver's defense is the opposite image of New England's – the Broncos are stuffing the passing game (6.14 YPA), but giving it up on the ground (4.4 YPC, 270 yards). Nonetheless, you add it all up and the Broncos still haven't given up a touchdown yet, even if it did come against the new-scheme Rams and the Huard-led Chiefs. New England's two power backs should be able to run against the Broncos front seven, a unit that's more about speed than beef, but Tom Brady may not have a lot of downfield options if cover ace Champ Bailey gets the Ben Watson assignment (a neat switch from then they last met, when we saw Watson's athletic search-and-destroy mission from goal-line to goal-line in January).
Prediction: Okay, compare it to chess if you must, but Belichick and Shanahan are both playing a few pieces down (book it – Jay Cutler is the Denver guy in 2007, if not sooner, and New England won't be this passing-game unfriendly with its personnel next year). Plummer is a better QB than he's shown, but Shanahan isn't going to expose him in this hornet's nest if he can avoid it. Even if the runs aren't working, Shanahan knows he needs a shorter game and a balanced attack. Put the Bells down for 135 yards and a touchdown (divvy it up as you like), while Plummer maxes out at 204 yards and one touchdown. Brady might get 1-2 scores from in close (where he's as good as anyone), but he's got no yardage upside here. Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney should wear down the Broncos in the long run, and that's going to be enough for the Pats to take it, be it winning physical or winning ugly. Patriots 23, Broncos 20.
Week 3 Notebook:
Carolina favored at Tampa Bay surprises me. I think the Bucs made the mistake of thinking that their offense was better than it was. The line was a sore spot all year. Cadillac Williams was hot and cold. Joey Galloway was old last year. Michael Clayton badly regressed in ’05. What was making up for this? Chris Simms becoming a star? That was bad bet and not fair to Simms, a still developing player.
People are happy now when Favre throws for 300 yards in home losses. He’s bigger than the team, always has been. Favre to the Redskins? Are they putting us on at HBO? Just making things up? You can’t learn a new system in season and figure out how to play with new teammates. Roy Williams should have waited and guaranteed a victory this week.
The Titans are hopeless. Jeff Fisher doesn’t want to be there anymore and who can blame him. If you need to let him go in order to make the change at QB so that Young can develop under fire like Eli Manning and Alex Smith apparently have, do it. The Dolphins need to beat a dreg like this 30-0 before I even think about taking them seriously as a playoff contender.
All those coaching dollars didn’t buy much in Washington, apparently. Maybe it’s inflation. The Texans had big questions on the offensive line and now have lost rookie LT Charles Spencer, so it doesn’t matter who gets carries or how they divide them. A QB change should be made in D.C. unless Mark Brunell shows something exciting this week (odds decidedly against).
The 4-6 defense is working now in Baltimore (it didn’t last year under first-year coordinator Rex Ryan, son of Buddy). But when are the Ravens going to get serious test? Not this week in Cleveland. The Ravens offense still stinks, as they were hammered by a suspect Raiders defense despite being set up in great field position all day.
I've heard from Philly contacts that Mike Ditka claims the Eagles are the best team in the NFC East “by far,” despite the collapse against the Giants. I think the Niners can beat them. You have to throw out last year’s stats because Alex Smith was paying his dues. Now he just might be at least fair-to-good. Why weren’t the Rams a test after what they did the week before to the Broncos and Mike Shanahan?
The Cardinals are going to have to deal with a lot of blitzing from the Rams, unless they are scared off by the Arizona receivers. The thing about manning up against Fitzgerald and Boldin is that one broken tackle and they’re gone (and these guys, Boldin especially, break lots of tackles). Marc Bulger and Tory Holt are trying to learn a new offense and it hasn’t been pretty. |
