NFL Forecast - Week 2 By Michael Salfino and David Ferris

Week 2 NFL Forecast

NFL Forecast

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I just posted the Sunday Night Redskins-Cowboys game. And now the Monday Night game between the Steelers and Jaguars is also up.

David Ferris joins us this week for Jets-Pats (which I also comment on in the Week 2 Notebook on this page). All other opinions the sole responsibility of Mike Salfino, in case you're looking to assault someone with a rusty spoon after losing the mortgage.

Consult our the weekend update of our Matchup Meter for info on any players not covered here.

Remember, check out out this week's Staff Picks for predictions of all the games.

Liked the new format. There were no complaints. Remember, all the games are picked in Staff Picks (bet the house, just against).

Notes for all the games not dealt with extensively follow, so be sure to scroll down once they're posted. Check the schedule at the beginning of this page. The Notebook area is a peek into my notebook. Questions for which I’ll seek answers when I review the games. Things I’m thinking about the respective teams.

This slate of games shapes up as very uninspiring, with more heavy favorites than I can ever remember, post-free agency.

Here are the ones I’ll be watching most closely.

Panthers (-1) at Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Talking points: Steve Smith is not healthy and may not go, but the oddsmakers don’t seem to care. What would the line be if he was healthy? Not that much different, if different at all.

The Panthers also have injuries on the line, which wasn’t good to begin with and almost got Jake Delhomme killed. He was visibly angry at his blockers at various times throughout the game.

It seems Andy Reid was the passing guy in Philly. Brian Childress comes over and decides to get all physical. Now, Childress does have a nice line. But Chester Taylor is very likely NOT a workhorse running back.

The Panthers were chewed up on the ground last week but that means little against the Vikings. Defenders have to be worried about containing Vick on boot action so they freeze on every handoff, which leaves unbelievable natural gaps in the defense.

NFL conventional wisdom that is probably true: the more desperate team usually wins.

Prediction: Smith didn’t practice all week. But Delhomme has to step up and get it done. I like Drew Carter, who provides a little downfield threat. Keyshawn has to be the possession guy. The running game has to step up. If DeShaun Foster doesn’t get it done, give DeAngelo Williams the ball. Let’s see the Panthers defense dominate for once. It’s all hands on deck because Super Bowl teams generally do not start 0-2. I guarantee the Vikings will not run the ball effectively after the Panthers spent all week looking at that film. Panthers 20, Vikings 10.

Giants (+3) at Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Talking Points: Everyone is buying the Eagles based on a game against Houston, which is trying to learn new systems on both sides of the ball? Over-exuberance.

The Giants pass defense is very shaky. Remember Steve Smith in the playoffs. Last week, Peyton Manning did anything he wanted when he had to do it. But Donovan McNabb can be rattled by a fierce pass rush, which causes him to fire balls at the feet of his receivers (or over their heads).

Brandon Jacobs is a moose. I’m not buying the “too tall” or “too short” arguments. “Too slow” is very often exposed. Heck, people thought Jerry Rice was too slow when he came out of college. 10-to-12 TDs this year for Jacobs (sorry Tiki Barber owners). If Barber finally gets hurt, look out.

Brian Westbrook is never going to be healthy for a full season. He needs to be used wisely. Correll Buckhalter is an important guy on this team and you have to question why the Eagles put themselves in a position to need a guy coming off two ACLs.

Stallworth and Brown will alternate big games, I think. So either pay the premium or try to buy at a discount depending on the week.

Eli Manning too often doesn’t connect on the easy throws when there’s little pressure. That’s a big problem in the NFL. Finding the right guy is supposed to be the hard part, not making the throw. He throws a lot like he’s thinking about where he’s throwing (never a good thing).

Is Jeremy Shockey ever healthy? He limps back to the huddle, seemingly, after every play, every year (except when he makes a play; then, he’s all happy).

Prediction: The Giants are a better team. Their offense is unstoppable when Eli is on. The Eagles are too one dimensional and McNabb isn’t a consistent enough thrower to overcome this in a deliberate, down-by-down way without the explosive wideout (and Stallworth ain’t that). The pass rush for New York is the difference. McNabb doesn’t run anymore, so they should just pin their ears back and go get him. Giants 27, Eagles 20.

Bucs (+5.5) at Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Talking Points: It’s always tempting to write off a team after a bad Week 1; but how different is that than writing off a team after a bad week, period? Does Week 1 matter more, or do we just think it does?

John Abraham was a monster last week, as he always is when healthy. But he hurt his groin again and is either very questionable or out for a month. I’m taking the over.

Another desperate team. The Falcons are feeling good about everything. But Tampa Bay defends Vick well because their Cover 2 defense never takes its eyes off the QB; man coverage is what gives Vick lots of room to run.

Warrick Dunn had an insane number of carries last week. Someone in the know said the Falcons don’t care if Vick gets hurt running because they like Matt Schaub so much. Maybe the feel the same way about Dunn/Jerious Norwood.

The jury is out on Chris Simms, I admit, but I lean towards him becoming a good QB. He’s accurate, which is most important. But I don’t like the supporting cast. I question the offensive line and the receivers.

Prediction: Tampa Bay controls the Falcons running game. Vick is unable to compensate. He needs broken plays and rollouts and half-scrambles, but the Bucs are too disciplined, too familiar with his game, too perfectly constructed to deal with his running. I don’t expect Abraham to play. Tampa Bay is going to have to squeeze out 20 points, but I think they do it behind some strong running and just enough from the passing game. Bucs 23, Falcons 16.

Cardinals (+7) at Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Talking Points: I’m really rooting for the Cardinals this year. Nothing personal for them or against anyone else. It’s just the sheer boredom of watching Arizona suck every year. Right now, I put their over/under at eight wins.

Seattle really blasted Arizona up north last year. What’s different now? Post-Super Bowl hangover for the Seahawks? Psychological variables are too, well, variable. Losing Hutchinson is big in terms of the running game. If Walter Jones limps off again, it’s real trouble. But Frank Gore did a number on the Cardinals defense last week. Shaun Alexander always gets fat in games where Seattle is a heavy favorite.

Kurt Warner looks real sharp not just last week but against the Bears starters in Week 3, which is like a super scrimmage. Will Seattle respect the run? I say, yes, because of Edge’s reputation. This opens up the passing game.

Seattle has had only two bad games against the pass since last September, at St. Louis and at Tennessee, against Bulger and McNair. Eli Manning threw for a lot of yards against him, but on 53 attempts.

If you want to cling to hope for ‘Zona, remember that Warner got hurt (groin) in the second quarter of that blowout in Seattle last year. At the point he was hurt, it was still a game (10-6).

Warner also played in the game in Arizona and was solid fantasy-wise, but lacking in a real sense, with three picks.

Prediction: I think the Seahawks are still shaking off the cobwebs. Last week’s pitiful performance is unlikely to wake them up because it was a road win, after all. Warner scares them this week. The Cardinals get on top early but get caught at the wire. Play everyone in this game, as I say it goes over 50. Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24.

Patriots (+6) at Jets, Sunday, 4:15 p.m. (By David Ferris)

Talking Points: It's funny how box score numbers can be limited in what they really tell us. Sometimes a big game in the stats turns out to be misleading, sometimes it's the other way around. Donte Stallworth's snappy opener was helped significantly by a long TD off a blown coverage, and he had a couple of bad drops besides. The numbers lied. Kellen Winslow's box looked tame but you see the tape and he's running over and through people. The numbers didn't say enough. The stats are great, but the tape doesn't lie.

I was eager to see if Chad Pennington's huge first game (statistically) would hold up to further scrutiny. Now I don't have access to the coach's tape, but every snap on Short Cuts isn't a bad substitute, so I got my notebook, a soft drink, and my biggest TV on the case. Lights, camera, action, and wow . . . I was blown away with how well Pennington threw it, short, medium, deep. Different routes, different guys, using everything at his disposal. So many balls where delivered at the perfect spot and with the precise touch. This is the guy everyone fell in love with a few years ago.

Okay, so what does it mean? What are the caveats? Tennessee's secondary is one of the 2-3 worst in the league; the Titans allowed 33 touchdown passes last year and I can't see how it's going to be much better now. The pass rush was sporadic . The Jets had the luxury of a lead for almost the entire game, and they were never behind. Last week showed that an unhurried Pennington can still hurt teams in the passing game, but he won't be facing that basic a setup every week.

The assignment will be a lot harder against New England this week. The Pats have arguably the best defensive line in the game, an improved secondary (Lee Evans was erased last week), and Bill Belichick's schemes, which still carry a lot of clout. Pennington's history against Belichick post-2002 is not pretty: 0-3 record, one touchdown pass, seven interceptions, seven sacks, 643 yards on 65-109. Pennington did find a way to run in three touchdowns in these meetings, but there's no suggesting that he's been leaning a dynamic offense.

I think it's very important that the Jets stay in the game as long as possible. There's major difference between throwing when you want to and when you have to. If the first 15-20 minutes of the game don't collapse on either team, I think the Jets are in it for the balance of the afternoon, picking and choosing where they expose Pennington to Belichick. If New York falls behind quickly, however, I could see it getting away from the Jets. I'm not sure if Belichick is more concerned on hitting Pennington or confusing him, but I'm sure we'll see attempts at both.

The two most exciting players on the New England offense aren't yet household names, but they're going to be awfully soon. Lawrence Maroney might be the Larry Johnson story of 2005, the powerful backup RB who is capable of winning your league for you if the starter (Corey Dillon) goes down. The Patriots don't have the line KC boasted last year, sure, but trust me, Maroney doesn't need much of a crease. He'll be a star right out of the box, and he'll be a stud as soon as he's needed to be the main guy.

Ben Watson doesn't have the luxury to ease into things - the Patriots need him to be the man right away because the wideouts are so spotty. It may take some time to get Watson comfortable in all of the packages they want to run with him. Eventually he might turn into more of a receiver for the Pats than anything else, not a bad thing with the replacements New England has lined up on the outside. Defenses might as well start giving Watson the Gates/Gonzalez treatment right away, because as currently constructed the Pats don't have anyone else they can reliably beat you vertically with.

Prediction: The Jets should be able to hang in against New England's two-headed ground attack - Jonathan Vilma is the best linebacker no one talks about. But New York probably can't shut down Corey Dillon and Maroney forever, and if the Pats get rolling on the ground at some point, it should set up some downfield connections with Watson later. Tom Brady doesn't have to throw for 300 yards to get a win here, but he'll make enough throws that matter - while Pennington will hit just enough bumps to keep New York from springing an upset. The ordinary Jet running game is unlikely to give Pennington a legitimate diversion, and that plays right into Belichick's hands. Patriots 27, Jets 17.

Redskins (+7) at Cowboys, Sunday, 8:15 p.m.

Talking Points: The Cowboys were 0-2 last year vs. Washington, including the heartbreaker on Monday Night in Irving when Santana Moss scored on two fourth-quarter bombs in a game where the Redskins otherwise could not move the ball at all. Yet, the Cowboys are seven-point favorites. What does Vegas know? Or is this just a way to balance out the action in light of all the people eager to place Cowboys wagers?

No Clinton Portis. But Betts is an average back and T.J. Duckett could be Riggins like between the tackles. Still, they lose some spark. But that’s why they brought in all these receivers. Trouble is, Mark Brunell can no longer make those 11-to-20 yard throws (33rd in QB rating for attempts this distance in ’05).

Drew Bledsoe had a good spring and then struggled against a good Jaguars defense in Jacksonville. Should that be so big a surprise? He had a TD pass called back, too. How many points was he expected to score there? The Tony Romo talk is silly in the context of this team and the status of the coach (probably his last year wearing the headset). I’m no Bledsoe fan, but he can be effective if you protect him with your playcalling like Parcells did with Testaverde in 1998.

Terry Glenn is dangerous and that has to be demonstrated early in games to loosen the overage on Terrell Owens. It’s Owens job to get open underneath and get some YAC and keep the chains moving.

The Cowboys need to use Marion Barber more. With Jones, you know they’re running. But Barber is the better guy in blitz pickup and catching the ball. He’s not the runner that Jones is, but he’s a Freeman McNeil-type of slasher between the tackles.

Prediction: Did I mention how the Redskins beat Dallas 35-7 in their last encounter? Yes, the spread is out of line. I like the Redskins going forward, but Dallas is the more desperate team tonight because it’s far worse to go 0-2 at home than on the road. Al Saunders scored 28 points at Dallas last year, but that was with Larry Johnson going off (as usual). The Cowboys defense looks better on paper, but we didn’t see enough last week at Jacksonville. Don’t have a feel for this game. Don’t know enough yet about the teams. But Dallas has more playmakers on both sides of the ball. That will be enough for the win, but not the cover. Cowboys 23, Redskins 20.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Jaguars, Monday, 8:30 p.m.

Talking Points: Two teams I hate. But I could like the Steelers is they took the reigns off Ben Roethlisberger on first and second down. You cannot have the top QB in football in yards per attempt and points per attempt and be last in the NFL in percentage of passing plays on first down. And if you say that running so much is the reason why the passing numbers are so good, I’ll scream. There’s no proven correlation whatsoever between running and passing stats. But there is mild evidence that passing well helps you run it better. (Remember, not all teams that run it well pass it well and vice versa.)

The Jaguars are banged up defensively, especially on the defensive line, which is their strength. Losing MLB Mike Peterson would hurt, but he’s officially probable. DE Reggie Hayward gave them an edge rush, but he’s out for the year (Achilles).

Can Willie Parker be a workhorse? No way. Okay, maybe there’s a five percent chance he can get 300 or so carries and come out of it in one piece after never doing it in his life, even on a per-game basis. Remember, he didn’t even start in college.

How will the tough summer affect Roethlisberger? I’m concerned that the appendix surgery is still so tender that he will sit in the pocket. I wish that we had stats on this, and I’m working on it, trust me, but Roethlisberger is almost definitely a much better passes after he feels pressure and moves out of the pocket than he is in it. His mobility was a strength and there are lingering knee concerns related to his motorcycle accident, too.

The Jaguars need to get Maurice Jones-Drew some action. The guy’s a playmaker. Fred Taylor still has some sizzle, but he’s on the other side of the mountain, for sure. The receivers are all big and some time well, but they lack quicks. Byron Leftwich is just not accurate enough to consistently sustain long drives against good defenses.

Mike Salfino's Week 2 Notebook:

I like what I saw from J.P. Losman last week. Namely, progress. Don’t be afraid of the Dolphins pass defense, which yielded 23 TD passes against a junk schedule and three more against Charlie Batch. I like Evans in this game. And I think Ronnie Brown will go off.

Cleveland is going to win and lose ugly this year, I think. Owners of Bengals are going to be disappointed for a second-straight week. I don’t like the quotes out of Cincy saying that they’re content to run the ball and win with defense. Your defense still stinks, boys. Check out that film of the Indy game last year if you don’t believe me.

How long will the transition to Mike Martz last? I’d say four weeks. If we don’t see consistent play by then, there needs to be personnel changes. The receiving corps is pretty weak, and that’s an unbelievable statement when you consider the relatively recent draft investment. The Bears? Let’s see Rex Grossman do that again.

I think Peyton just abuses the Texans this week. Their pass defense still stinks. If the Colts want to run the ball, they’re going to have to think outside of the box and open up the passing game so much that defense concede the run, sort of like the Colts did last week against the Giants offense.

The Saints have a bad pass defense and Green Bay isn’t going to stink out the joint at home twice. I can’t believe New Orleans is favorite on the road against anyone.

I’m not ready to say the Ravens have a dominant defense. Why would it be so much better than last year’s unit, which was merely good? And where is the improvement on offense? Even if things work out, how long can Steve McNair last?

Why are the Rams favored at San Fran? The Niners have trouble on the line and will have to face a lot of blitzes with an inexperienced QB. Blitzes are very good at shutting down a running game, too. I think Bulger cuts that Rams secondary up. It’s a new offense, but he still knows how to find Torry Holt.

Ferris is handling Jets-Patriots. But I want to make one point. The way to beat Brady is to blitz him now like mad. Sounds crazy. Brady has always killed the blitz. But there are no perimeter threats now. Man up on those stiffs, put a safety on Watson and outnumber New England at the point of attack. The Bills really gave Brady fits with pressure in the first half, but then got conservative. This allowed Brady time to find the open man.

Larry Johnson has a chance to show the kind of player he is this week. Let’s see him be productive against all odds, on the road. That would be a statement, win or lose. Put the team on your back if you want to be an MVP candidate. Did anyone notice the defense the Chiefs showed last week? Not bad.