| |
 |
NFL
Forecast - Week 1
By Michael Salfino
|
 |
Week 1 NFL Forecast
Monday Night Games Now Posted!
Okay, new format this year. I highlight the games I really like. The other teams get a note in the “Notebook” section of the piece. Scroll down for my Dolphins-Steelers coverage, which ended up being a “B” prediction wise. (I'm a tough graders).
The Sunday Night game (Colts-Giants) will be posted Sunday morning. The Monday Night games, Monday morning. No notes there, of course, as they’ll always get more extensive treatment.
See the Breakfast Table and Matchup Meter for additional insights on the teams and complete fantasy football rankings. Scott Pianowski, honored guest Steve Moyer (Baseball Info Solutions) and I all predict all the games every week against the spread via our Staff Picks.
Enjoy the games.
Vikings (+4.5) at Redskins, 7 p.m.
Double header on Monday Night Football? I’ve officially lived long enough to see everything. This isn’t Giants-Padres starting at 10:30 EST, it’s Raiders-Chargers.
Talking points: The Redskins have the all-time specialist coaching staff. Pianow and I were talking backstage this weekend about how dumb it is for teams to pay for the great coordinator and then take him out of the coordinator role by making him a generalist/administrator (i.e., a head coach).
Mark Brunell looks like he can still hum the ball fine, but his functional arm strength last year was very poor (56.1 QB rating on passes 11-to-20 yards).
The Redskins seemed primed for a committee at least in a fantasy sense, with Betts likely to have to relieve Portis more frequently in light of shoulder problems that are expected to trouble him all year and T.J. Duckett getting goal-line carries (never a Portis strong suit, 4-for-15 last year on inside-the-five carries vs. 7-for-12 for Duckett).
The Vikings are a good bet to implement an Eagles-style offense not just in terms of style, but in play-calling splits, too. That would mean about 60 percent pass plays versus the NFL average of 53 percent, which is a huge difference – about 100 pass attempts. Who will be the beneficiary on the receiving end?
There’s two backs already this week whose workloads I don’t believe can reasonably be sustained, Warrick Dunn and Willie Parker. I think their owners and respective NFL teams are happy now but will be sorry later, like Cadillac Williams owners last year. Will Chester Taylor be a third?
Washington has the soundest defense in football. Not explosive in terms of turnovers and sacks, but great in yards per play and, especially, points per pass attempt. Only the Bears, Panthers and Steelers were stingier last year in allowing points on a per-attempt basis.
Prediction: I think the Redskins are underrated. The preseason scares me a little because I think they likely attempted to do some serious things in these games given the new system. Obviously, results were horrible. But this is a veteran team and they may have had a more casual attitude in games than in practices. Unlikely, but possible. It’s likely that they are taking to the changes slowly, which is surprising because Saunders and Gibbs come from the same coaching tree. The Vikings season will depend on Brad Johnson, which is dicey. Johnson did do very well last year in most of my key ranks, including, surprisingly, functional arm strength. But this is too tough a test. Low scoring, but played tough and fun to watch. Redskins 20, Vikings 16.
Chargers (-3) at Raiders, 10 p.m.
Talking points: Can Philip Rivers come off of his first read, stay poised and make plays? Ron Jaworski says not yet and Jaws is the best QB guy in the business. Merrill Hodge says he has a little Marino in him in his willingness to throw to receivers who appeared to be covered. There’s a fine line here, obviously, as Marino did it when the defensive back had his back to the ball and, uncannily, the DB rarely got his head around in time to defend the pass.
Antonio Gates might be helped by Rivers’ tendencies as expressed by Jaworski and Hodge because he will be the first read on a large percentage of passing plays. And Gates, obviously, is one of those rare guys (a healthy Randy Moss is another) who is never really covered.
Tomlinson didn’t have a carry in the preseason. That’s odd. I’m sure they weren’t hitting him in practice. I would think that you have to get used to getting hit in terms of your conditioning. So, expect Michael Turner to get more than his usual allotment of carries.
Generally, you’re as good as your QB in the NFL. That’s very bad news for Raiders fans, as Aaron Brooks stinks and there’s nowhere else where they can make up that ground. All other facets of this team are ordinary, at best.
Shawn Merriman! Got it out of the way. He’s good, but overhyped. He didn’t make that many plays last year. If you say he’s great before there’s sufficient on-field evidence, what do you say if and when he takes his game up to that level?
Randy Moss could be very dangerous in a garbage-time kind of way all year. But he hasn’t been healthy since mid-2004. Are the leg problems now chronic?
Prediction: We’re flying blind everywhere but especially here. Rivers has no action with the bullets flying, as even the Broncos weren’t playing for anything after Drew Brees was knocked out last year. So, it’s impossible to make a prediction. But Vegas is clearly expecting a learning curve because the Chargers with Brees would be five- or six-point favorites on the road. We’ll go for the cover, but warily. Chargers 24, Raiders 20.
Colts (-3) at Giants, 8:30 p.m.
I’m blaming my bum knee and the cricket in my basement that kept me up until 4 a.m. after my wife booted me from the bedroom for my forgetting to post this sooner.
So, just to get it on the record, though I’ve been wrong about so much so far in this short season (we learn as we go, as always):
Talking points: Tiki Barber is 31, 22nd all-time in career touches (not including kick returns) and had his heaviest workload ever last year. Can he possibly maintain his '05 form?
Forgetting the preseason, I’m expecting the Colts to run the ball effectively no matter who is there because defenses must always concern themselves with the pass.
The Giants have some great speed rushers, but the Colts deal with that out of the 4-3 very well, typically. Out of the 3-4, that’s a different story.
Jeremy Shockey is nursing another injury (ankle) but is used as a wide receiver in the Giants attack. I expect a big year, as Plaxico Burress is not reliable enough to be a true No. 1.
Eli Manning is knocked for his mechanics but not his composure. I think the latter causes problems with the former. Eli gets happy feet in the pocket and his footwork suffers, causing passes to sail. I don’t think it’s fear as much as nervousness, which even his brother struggles to get under control at times. Notice it tonight when he comes off his first read. If you don’t see it, he’s made nice strides.
Prediction: The Giants had an easy schedule last year. Including the postseason, they were 4-6 against teams .500 or better. They are not in the same class of team as Indy and I think the Colts overcome the homefield to prove that in this spot. Peyton Manning is going to be much more aggressive in the red zone this year, given the absence of James. Expect 35-plus TD passes and over 4,000 passing yards again. He gets off to a flying start here, to the usual suspects. The Giants stay with them until the fourth quarter, when the Colts pull away. I like all the skill players in this one. Brandon Jacobs gets a couple short TDs. Colts 38, Giants 28.
Falcons (+5) at Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Talking points: The Panthers were virtually tied with the Seahawks for best team in the NFC last year and arguably passed the Seahawks with a better offseason with no key losses.
Does Michael Vick stink? 34th in percentage of poor throws (18.9 percent), 27th in YPA (6.23), 22nd in functional arm strength (QB rating on 10-to-20 yard throws), 17th in pass attempts per TD pass. In fairness, he’s pretty good in the red zone (TDs on 23 percent of passes/runs).
Warrick Dunn cannot possibly be an effective short yardage/goal-line back at 180 pounds because that runs contrary to the laws of physics. But Jerious Norwood owners hope Atlanta is dumb enough to try.
Prediction: The Panthers would have won handily with a healthy Smith. Without him, they could lose. This is important because the Panthers are in the habit of blowing early games at home (remember the loss to the Saints last year). The Falcons are stuck emphasizing style over substance with a guy that they’ve built their franchise around. If they want to sell jerseys, Vick is the man. If they want to win games, they need to replace him (and please no e-mails about Vick’s record as a starter). The replacement is already there (Matt Schaub). Panthers 24, Falcons 17.
Bengals (+2) at Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Talking points: The Jets were seventh in YPA allowed and 15th in points per pass attempt allowed. That makes a good case for Herm Edwards enabling the Chiefs to make great strides defensively in both of these key categories. Ty Law will help, too.
Carson Palmer’s recovery is nearly miraculous but now comes the hard part.
The Chiefs have the loudest crowd in football (remember, the stadium is outdoors) and there only seems to be the usual home field advantage being allocated here by the oddsmakers.
Is the Chiefs offensive line in shambles after the retirement of Willie Roaf? Or does KC just have a run-blocking scheme that overcomes personnel changes, similar to the Broncos?
Are interceptions a fluke? All those bad QBs in the NFC North helped Cincy in ’05, but how much was due to the Bengals defense that doesn’t get much pressure on opposing QBs?
Prediction: High-scoring opener. Both Johnsons have big days. Green fights Palmer to a draw. The likely absence of T.J. Houshmandzadeh hurts. Chiefs 28, Bengals 24.
Cowboys (+2) at Jaguars, 4:15 p.m.
Talking points: The Cowboys have the 3-4 personnel of Bill Parcells’ post-Giants dreams. This has the makings of the best pass defense in football, which almost always means best defense period.
The Jaguars had a lot of trouble with their pass protection when I caught them in preseason Week 3, which is played at least semi-legitimately by teams.
Byron Leftwich is not an accurate passer. Ignore the announcers. 35th out of 36th in poor throw percentage in ’05 (over 20 percent of all throws).
Maurice Jones-Drew’s explosive playmaking ability is badly needed in this offense. Fred Taylor has lost a step. Matt Jones doesn’t play to his timed speed when I’ve seen him.
Terrell Owens will do something dramatic, as he always does when he’s healthy and active. And he’ll keep opponents from blitzing, though the Jaguars rarely do that against anyone.
The Cowboys are better off with Marion Barber starting because he’s better in pass protection, a much better receiver and a tougher inside runner.
Prediction: A real slobberknocker (but every time I say that, the game goes over). Owens is the best playmaker on the field by a mile and this is a game where one big play will be the swing. Heck, Terry Glenn is the second best playmaker. A win here propels Dallas because this is a statement game in a tough road environment against a team that everyone in the NFL respects. It’s not life or death, of course, even in a football context, but a very early swing game that determines whether you are a mere playoff-contender or a championship contender. I think Dallas gets it. Cowboys 20, Jaguars 13.
WEEK 1 NOTEBOOK: Why am I down on McNair, who everyone thinks is the missing link in Baltimore? Take away stats when they were trailing big, late and he had 12 TDs and 10 picks. Not the profile of a championship QB.
Has J.P. Losman made significant strides? If not, it’s back to the drawing board for Buffalo with another rookie next year and two more years (at least) of development time.
Is Tom Brady all you need to have a great passing game or does the quality of the receivers play a significant part?
Fantasy owners want to know who the primary runner is in Denver, but Jake Plummer has to demonstrate that he can overcome the suddenly short-term relationship he now has with Mike Shanahan.
Is Scott Linehan’s offense a good fit for the Rams. He likes to toss it up to receivers who rely on great physical skills (Randy Moss and Chris Chambers). The Rams under Martz relied on precision and timing.
How are the Saints going to deploy Reggie Bush, who can create game-turning mismatches in the passing game? Remember, Sean Payton coached Marshall Faulk in college.
The Browns have a little Bears in them and could surprise this year if everything breaks right. They’ll have a better record than the Ravens.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking from an admitted Jets fan, but I think Chad Pennington has a decent chance to be very good again. What can’t he do now that he did in that magical 2002?
Jeff Fisher seems much less patient about developing Vince Young now that he’s near the end of his Titans tenure than he did Steve McNair when he (Fisher) was an up-and-comer.
Is Donovan McNabb done as a runner? If he is, does he have the accuracy to be a pocket passer (highest percentage of poor throws in ’05)?
Coaching is the answer to the Texans offensive woes (just 37 red zone possessions last year), or at least that’s what Houston hopes. Last chance for romance for David Carr. And Andre Johnson, too.
The Super Bowl loser has traditionally had a big hangover, as most recent ones have had losing records the following year. Seattle also has traditionally had a lot of trouble with Mike Martz offenses. But how much of that was personnel?
The Bears won the hard way last year. Brett Favre, at this stage of his career, is tailor-made for them. But they’re going to need a passing game very soon or they will struggle to play .500 ball in ’06.
The Niners need Alex Smith to make the strides Eli Manning made in ’05. But Manning showed some more signs in ’04 than Smith in ’05.
The Cardinals are in an indoor environment and will no longer have a heat advantage in September. Of course, that never got them very far. Edgerrin James has a ton of mileage and has to answer critics who suggest the Cardinals bought past the expiration date.
Miami Dolphins (pick ‘em) at Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday, 8:30 p.m.
Talking points: The Steelers led the NFL last year in the two most important stats, by far, in football: net yards per pass attempt (YPA) and net points per pass attempt (PPA).
Vegas is saying that a healthy Roethlisberger is worth 4.5 points to Pittsburgh, because that’s how far the line has dropped with Charlie Batch now starting. The best thing I can say about Batch’s performance last year in relief of Roethlisberger was that he wasn’t Tommy Maddox.
Raiders, Bills, Jets, Titans and Patriots (when New England was seemingly trying to lose for playoff seeding with Matt Cassel at QB and attempting drop kicks). I’ll give Miami props for the win at San Diego. But this does not seem like a winning streak upon which to build a Super Bowl resume.
My Stat Power Index, which correlates to winning and losing as well or better than anything out there, had Miami 19th last year. The Dolphins pass defense was very shaky, with 23 TD passes allowed. And that was versus the likes of Bollinger, Collins, Cassel, Volek, Dilfer, Losman, Holcomb, Griese, Brooks. In other words, a lot of backups and mediocrities.
Prediction: Daunte Culpepper in Pittsburgh in the home playoff game that never was during the Super Bowl run? Murder, she wrote. And this is a QB who may not even be healthy and hasn’t played for real in almost a year and didn’t play well last year when he was healthy.
Which QB is going to not lose the game? That comes down to who is able to run it best and stay out of obvious passing downs. Ronnie Brown vs. Willie Parker looks like advantage Miami to me. But that’s on paper. We’re expecting a lot out of Brown on faith because of his draft pedigree. The results last year were mixed, as I didn’t see that down in and down out consistency you like to see from backs. Can Parker be a multi-dimensional runner? He had success running inside last year (4.6 YPC over the middle, or at least starting there). But he was inconsistent, too, with seven games averaging 3.6 or less years per carry.
Hey, these were supposed to be shorter capsules. What happened? Getting carried away, as usual. Pittsburgh rises to the challenge of being shorthanded. The Dolphins offense is overwhelmed. The defenses are ahead of the offenses. Hines Ward gets a late TD. Steelers 17, Dolphins 13
|
