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RotoAction NFL Line - Super Bowl
By Michael Salfino
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RotoAction Computer Super Bowl Pick
See the Breakfast Table for extensive analysis of the Super Bowl, as well as a recap of the Championship Games.
Tough to put a line on the Super Bowl.
The AFC was 40-24 vs. the NFC this year. Only the Cowboys had a winning record among NFC teams in interconference play. After Week 7, the AFC won 34 of 45 interconference games, outscoring the NFC by 342 points, an average of 7.6 points per game. So, do we tack on 7.5 points to our Power Index line?
Remember, the lines are good. Team performance deviates too far from average every week for past performance to be a reliable indicator. The pick is based only how teams have played in the entirety of the season, not factoring recent performance, momentum or injuries or anything else. The line awards three points for the home team. So these are dead-even games on a neutral field with the Patriots actually being slightly favored irrespective of surroundings. Here's how the Computer sees NFL this week.
Choose whichever line grabs you. I like the contextual line rather than the straight up stats line because the AFC has dominated the NFC so thoroughly and consistently, especially since Week 7. Vegas seems to agree with the contextual line, for whatever that's worth (and I think it's worth a lot).
(Vegas line here)
Colts by 1 over Bears (straight stats line)
Colts by 8.5 over Bears (contextualizing the stats by conference based on how all teams played in intereconference games, weighting most heavily games played in the second half of '06).
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