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RotoAction Game of the Week
By David Ferris
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Patriots (2-1, +6) at Bengals (3-0), Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Talking Points: Normally you love Tom Brady off a loss – the Patriots haven't dropped back-to-back games since 2002 – but this is not an offense that scares anyone. The wideouts are slow. The offensive line is ordinary. The two best playmakers in the offense are a backup running back (though Laurence Maroney generally splits the work with Corey Dillon) and a tight end. Perhaps rookie receiver Chad Jackson will give the unit some juice when he's healthy and up to speed, but that could be weeks (or months) away.
So with all that established, New England turns its lonely eyes to Doug Gabriel. He had six catches for 65 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss to Denver, but he's still flying under the radar a bit – if you turned that game off early, we can't say as though we blame you. Gabriel's had issues with drops and route running in the past, but compared to the rest of the healthy wideouts on this team he looks like an All-Pro. It's not even clear if he'll start, but look for Brady (who's dying for someone to emerge as a go-to guy) to do all he can to get Gabriel into the mix.
The Bengals are 3-0 and trendy as it gets, but it's possible to make a case that they're a little overrated at the moment. Carson Palmer's four touchdown passes at Pittsburgh mask the fact that he played poorly for much of the game (the Bengals were very sloppy protecting him). Beating Cleveland is no reason for a parade, and everything that could fall right in the opener at Kansas City did. By the numbers it looks like the defense is killing everyone's passing game, but against a struggling Ben Roethlisberger, an inexperienced Charlie Frye, and a half of Damon Huard, who really cares? Not that I don't like the Bengals overall, but this looks like another good team to me right now, not a great one.
So how do the chess pieces fall Sunday? The Patriots will probably look to run to set up their pass – Dillon and Maroney don't look bad against an ordinary Bengals front seven – while the Bengals should do it the other way – get the pass established, and then look to find lanes for Rudi Johnson. The Bengals love to run Johnson in the hurry-up off a spread look, especially after big gains in the pass game. This is one way to neutralize the Patriots defensive line, the unquestioned strength of New England's defense.
Prediction: If Brady had one more legit guy to work with, I'd probably call for an upset here. Desperation is a great motivator. But given his current personnel he's getting a wash at best against the Bengals secondary, while Palmer, if protected by his line, could go off against the beat-up and struggling New England secondary. Okay, you want some names and numbers. Give Brady 263 and a coupe of touches, somehow. Gabriel (7-83) gets in, and Troy Brown (3-23) does too. Ben Watson (4-56) has another solid, not great, day. Reche Caldwell has no grade point average, all classes incomplete. Maroney stays on the field more and outproduces Dillon. Palmer has less yardage than Brady but he gets multiple TDs as the Pats can't get enough consistent pressure on him. Chad Johnson (7-109) revisits the end zone, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (8-71) does too. Be wary of Chris Henry, a talent but he's just begging to be suspended (by the team or league) with his off-field issues. Rudi Johnson (129 total yards) is always a solid play. Bengals 27, Patriots 24
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