New Breakfast Served on Thursdays

"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Complete Christmas Breakfast

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: December 19, 2006 12:40:34 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Christmas Breakfast

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: December 20, 2006 5:40:08 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: counting to six in the AFC

Meadowlands Head Cold, meet Michigan Migraine. My forehead and eyeballs were rattling around earlier in the week; I felt like I ran the Baltimore scout team without a helmet. If I misspell every fourth word and start to let the jabberwocky fly, clean it up, amigo? I'm almost dizzy enough to put DeAngelo Hall and John Lynch in the Pro Bowl and snub Terence Newman and Kerry Rhodes. (I know it's meaningless, but botches like that annoy me, anyway.)

The way the NFC contenders are playing, might as well call off their playoffs, expand the AFC Tournament to 12 teams and leave it at that. Chicago's pass defense just got embarrassed by Tim Rattay, and Tommie Harris is a monumental loss. The Dallas offense is nothing to spit at, but the Pokes haven't stopped anyone in two weeks. I was stunned the Saints couldn't throw the ball on the Redskins, a defense that can't cover, can't take the ball away, and can't rush the quarterback. I'll give Drew Brees a mulligan - I wish I could slide him back to the Chargers - but the Saints defense is slow and can't get off the field on third down and eventually that won't fly.

No one in the NFC West is bowl eligible, so let's just skip that lot for now. You feeling frisky for the Eagles? Do the Giants have any lifelines left? For 78 cents can the Panthers just skip the final two games?

Okay, I can't fake it either - as Mark Ratner said, all the action's on the other side of the mall. I'm normally not a Jaguars apologist but I'm not going to hammer them for the misstep in Tennessee. This wasn't laying an egg at Houston or Washington, but rather one of those rare games where you dominate the majority of the day and lose because the opponent makes 2-3 monumental, game-changing plays (or you wrap up 2-3 gifts). I know a fluke when I see it. The Patriots still have name-brand appeal but Jacksonville's deeper on both sides of the ball. Unless Garrard throws up on himself while Brady unlocks the hidden upside of his replacement receivers, this looks like an easy bounce-back spot for the Jags.

You nailed it on Cincinnati - the cat got baited by the string. With all due respect to Rudi Johnson, a solid back, he's working behind a makeshift line and 3.8 yards a carry isn't even the league average. The Bengals came into Naptown with a sizzling QB and an offense with teeth, and they left with 16 crummy points against a weak defense there for the taking. Okay, Willie Anderson went down and Dwight Freeney roamed free all night, got it. But the Bengals lost this one on the overhead. Balance is one thing, but having Carson Palmer throw just eight passes in the first half is asking to lose.

Are you starting to feel bad for Peyton Manning, like I am? His level of play has climbed so high that no one bats an eyelash when he tosses up 29-36-282-4-0 in a critical Monday nighter. No turnovers, one lousy sack (for no yards). This was one of those practice sessions where the ball never hits the ground. The short TD passes don't look like much in the boxscore, but the execution was beyond flawless and is worth a second look. Except it's Manning, of course, so everyone just blows it off (heck, it wasn't even his best game of the year - the Mile High masterpiece remains the gold standard.)

I'm rehashing earlier table themes but I'm wondering if the Colts can find a way to steal everything and rip up conventional wisdom in the process. Go ahead, win a title without stopping the run. Go ahead, win a title with Dominic Rhodes handing the ball a lot. It's a cute story and it's tempting to run with it - they just need a healthy Bob Sanders and someone else to beat the Chargers, right? If San Diego and Indy do meet up, forget we had this talk; it's hard to ignore how hellish that matchup is for the Colts.

The harder January game for the Chargers might be the first one: off the break, the first playoff experience for Philip Rivers (who's been high-sugar cereal the last few weeks.) It's a shame Cincinnati or Pittsburgh can't get the game as an at-large bid, but right now I don't see either in the playoffs. The Jaguars aren't a bad fit but they'd have to win a road game first. The Patriots are ticklish for the Belichick element, but would Tom Brady be able to walk out of Qualcomm Stadium? New England still toys with the junior high kids, but I don't trust the Pats offensive line against any solid defense (New York and Miami beat the tar out of the poor QB).

I'm still running some tape, and I need to get my midweek 3-hour sleep at some point Wednesday. Consider this just an appetizer, and we'll implement the game plan a little later today. I'll have six AFC slots ready to go before dark, but don't wait for me - if you're feeling ready, have at the buffet first.

And oh yeah, congrats to the Jets for landing their punter (and three other chaps) on "Sesame Street." The smart money says Mangini wouldn't name his starters until the first take.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: December 20, 2006 4:52:32 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: counting to six in the AFC

See, but you still came to play, while I loafed around with my tissue box. You're tougher in the trenches, it's decided.

I sick of Pro Bowls. These guys are feted enough. I feel about the Pro Bowl (and all All-Star games) like I feel about the Emmy's, Grammy's, People's Choice and AVN awards. (Really, how could "Jack the Zipper" get ONE nomination last year?) Yes, Kerry Rhodes got jobbed. It's mildly annoying to me, too, when an up-and-comer gets stiffed (insert own AVN joke).

Do you think Brees is better than Rivers? Or are the Chargers better for Rivers than the Saints? I agree with the latter, in terms of championship aspirations. But for pure numbers, Brees is better off in New Orleans. I'm rooting for the Saints to make the Super Bowl because I'd like to see a lot of prominent people squirm over the spotlight that would be shed on the still-terrible situation there almost 17 months after Katrina hit. All week, I've been contrasting what happened in the Ninth Ward to the quickly coordinated, full government response you see when three rich white guys get lost on a mountain in the middle of a blizzard because they're too busy to bother checking a weather report.

Alas, I can't see the Saints making it. I don't think they'll travel well. The No. 2 seed seems lost. They have a tough game this week (Giants). The Bears are going to need Grossman to play well to win two games even at home; Chicago needs the Seahawks to be a No. 4 seed. But I do think it's going to come down to Bears-Cowboys in the championship game and Romo and Co. is a bad matchup for that defense as presently constructed.

Philly, I really like. They're underrated maybe because McNabb is overrated. Jeff Garcia is a system guy in the right system, surrounded by the right players. Heck, A.J. Feeley did something similar a few years ago. Maybe it's plug-and-play in Philly under Andy Reid. The Eagles can also play good enough pass defense. No, they generally can't stop the run. But they attack early with the passing game so that it's tougher to beat them with the run. And now they can run a little with a lead given that Westbrook is healthy behind that mammoth offensive line.

This is the perfect spot for a Jaguars win. They're up and down and this is the up week if the pattern holds. They always play better against better teams, too. I do think the Patriots are a championship contender. Belichick can really help Mangini out with a win and I'm sure that bugs him. But he can't get too cute because, if the Patriots lose and the Jets win, the Jets can actually win the division with a Patriots loss to Vince Young (in Tennessee) and a Jets win at home against the Raiders (who will fold their tents faster than any team in NFL history in the cold after a cross-country trip on New Year's Eve). Of course, this means the Jets must win at Miami on Christmas night. You can't dink and dunk the Dolphins and Mangini tends to play afraid against good defenses.

The short passing game isn't much different than the good running game when it comes to making teams feel good about themselves with little to show for it on the scoreboard. Peyton Manning got away with hit on Monday night, but look how efficient he had to be. And there's only one Manning (sorry, Eli). Is it crazy to think you could completely sucker most NFL coaches by purposely playing poorly against the run so teams only bother passing when it's relatively easy to defend in the red zone? I think it could work. But I also think that Steve Moyer's idea of vacating third base in baseball would work (and sticking in an extra outfielder). Perhaps I'm overmedicated still.(Note that Steve has clarified in saying that, "I'd only vacate 3B with the bases empty and a lefty non-bunting pull hitter who never grounds to third.")

The one true definition of greatness is when an athlete can perform like Manning did last week without causing so much as a ripple on the pond. Jordan was like that for most of his career. Greatness was expected.

San Diego is tough with those edge rushers. I think the Colts would benefit from their experience against the Steelers and Patriots, though. They'll adjust. Either the shotgun will go or that blocking scheme where the guards are responsible for coming out and blocking blitzing outside backers. That's why Peyton ripped the protection last January. He's not going to let that happen again versus a team with 54 sacks, right?

The Patriots could definitely beat the Chargers as long as Brady's arm is okay. I have strong doubts about that, given how badly he's performing on those bread-and-butter intermediate throws. But let's assume he's healthy. I'm not writing off Cincy, either, despite the brain fart in Indy. They have a really good chance of beating Denver, who is mediocre even if Jay Cutler is really a quick learner (and he was just okay other than that unbelievable bomb, which was really no surprise to people who follow the draft). Maybe you have them losing to Pittsburgh. That could easily happen, as Pittsburgh is good, angry and would like nothing better than making the hated Bengals miserable the entire offseason.

New York is a solid defense? The Jets? Huh? Is that your Christmas present to me? Hey, they have been pretty consistently good against the pass, especially if you take away that Evans play in the game at the Meadowlands. But....

Okay, NFC first. I'd love to see Seattle bounced. But they'll hold on because the Niners are still below average and won't win in Denver. So, put Seattle in, Chicago of course. New Orleans, too. And then Dallas in the East even though I think that game is going to be nip and tuck this week versus Philly. The Giants win all tie-breakers with Philly (common opponent). But the Giants could EASILY lose both of their remaining games, nevermind just one. So, the Atlanta-Philly winner is definitely in and that's in Philly Week 17. Give the Giants a split and make those two the wildcard.

In the AFC, the Chargers, Colts, Ravens and Patriots are set (though New England needs one win or a Jets loss). The Chiefs are done. That leaves the Bengals, Broncos, Jets, Jaguars for two spots. I think the Jets beat Miami just because Joey Harrington is so bad and because the Jets might remember their passing success versus the Dolphins and open it up a little against a secondary that gets beat a lot. They'll roll over the Raiders Week 17. I think the Steelers beat the Bengals at Cincy in Week 17. The Jaguars will rise from the ashes and beat the Pats this week and the Chiefs in Week 17 (KC will be eliminated). So, Jets and Jaguars in the wildcard, though the Jets are nowhere near as good as either Cincy or the Steelers.

Merry Christmas to you. Happy Holidays to everyone else. Let's order up another round of egg nog and chocolate chip pancakes and hit the mall one last time for a Tickle Me Elmo (already got the Wii for the kiddies (and me), baby).

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: December 21, 2006 6:58:49 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: counting to six in the AFC

Brees is better than Rivers today, tomorrow, and maybe for the rest of the decade, we'll see. But today, definitely. The Chargers really didn't have a choice; with too much quarterback payroll and a shoulder issue dogging Brees, they had to move on (everyone knows this so I'll move on, too). It will be interesting to see how Rivers reacts to his first playoff pressure, because the AFC isn't a mail order item. As wonderful as LT is, you can't merely hand him the ball 40 times and collect your check. Rivers will need to play well at least once for them to win the conference.

The Eagles are the Shrek of the NFC right now, and I can't believe they're grabbing seven at Dallas. Philly found a way past Carolina back when the Panthers were still trying (why hasn't DeAngelo Williams been carrying the load after what we saw in Week 13?); Andy Reid's crew had enough to finish off the pesky Redskins on the road two weeks ago (I still don't like the defense but that Washington offensive line has come together); and the Eagles didn't blink in last week's critical game at the Meadowlands. The Philly secondary is probably the deepest in the NFC now that the Bears have lost their way. Reid might be the most underrated coach of his era. We're going to see a tight game on the Monday undercard, and it's a game the Eagles can win.

The Jaguars should win this week, maybe in a blowout. New England's rushing defense is vulnerable when Vince Wilfork doesn't play. Jacksonville has become the most underrated home-field edge in the league (check the batch of good teams that have been ambushed here). Say this for Jack Del Rio, he finds a way to rally his troops after it lays an egg. The Jags also have the AFC's best secondary, not that the Patriots have anyone you really have to worry about. (What about Baltimore's secondary, you ask? Overrated. The scheme and the pass rush covers up some warts.)

The heart wants to see the Bengals but the head doesn't see it. There are all sorts of whispers the last day or so about Palmer's health. The schedule didn't have enough gaps (keep in mind they got the NFC South before most of the division flagged the season.) Denver hasn't lost a snow game at home since Gavin Grey was in town (okay I made that up but it was fun to write). Pittsburgh's playing just as well as it did last year; someone pissed these guys off and they're spanking people. (Can we find a way to sneak the Steelers into the tournament? I'd give them a shot anywhere against anyone. I get the idea Bill Cowher sees a rosy 2007 and he's coming back.)

I admit I'm still afraid of Shanahan at this time of year, perhaps irrationally so. Cutler's a work in progress but he looked like the paperboy a month ago; at least we're seeing some growth. The running game shows sparks here and there. The Bengals built a phony defensive resume against weak opponents, but the Colts exposed them and I think Shanny finds a way, too, even with his makeshift line and the rotating door in the backfield. The Broncos know they've got the inside of the track left to run - two home games remaining, the finale against ordinary San Francisco - and they've got a good conference record, too. My last Table Guarantee (Raiders) blew up like the Hindenburg, but let's keep chucking them up - I'm here to guarantee that your Denver Broncos will play January football.

I want to believe in the Jets, I do. It's a likable team. Pennington's beating people with his brains (he's grossly underrated with his pre-snap reads), heady stuff because all he's got is two targets and a shoulder held together by scotch tape. The defense and offensive line looked messy all summer, but things have jelled nicely.

But how far can an offense go on Cedric Houston, three yards, and a cloud of dust? Can the Jets protect Pennington long enough to beat the Dolphins with the intermediate and deep throws? Jason Taylor is the best defensive player I've seen all year and you're going to be sick of him before we hit Boxing Day. I also think the Dolphins will run it on the Jets - everyone pretty much does - and that's key because it keeps Joey Harrington out of harm's way. It's going to be a tight one, but I have to side with the hosts. No one wins those consolation-round games like Nick Saban, Jersey.

If I don't get these predictions in the mail, they'll never make it by Christmas. Dallas holds off the posse in the NFC East, but the Eagles and Giants punch their tickets too. Everyone's pulling for the Saints, but it's one of the NFC East teams that wins at Chicago (say Dallas for now, but I'd give Philadelphia a shot anywhere). Seattle might win one at home, but when the Seahawks get eliminated, it's going to be lopsided.

We've got five easy pieces in the AFC (trust me, Denver's a lock), but the final spot is a Rubik's Cube of combinations. I've changed my mind three times in the last 45 seconds; one of the best playoff messes I can ever remember. It would be fun to watch a 7-7 team get planetary alignment and steal a spot, but with four teams already at 8-6, that's asking too much. I'm saying Jacksonville today, it could be your Jets tomorrow. The Bengals and Steelers will play what amounts to an NIT game (a fantastic NIT game) next week.

Indy and San Diego get their collision course, but I can't ignore the thicker Chargers roster. Marty Schottenheimer, you've been anointed.

This BT reply sponsored by the letters L and T, and the number 9. That's all the damage I can do. Don't drink too much eggnog, amigo (I hear it's a variable amount if you're from Cincinnati). Seriously, have a happy and safe one.