New Breakfast Served on Thursdays

"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Happy Daze for Eli and Romo's The Fonz

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: November 28, 2006 8:54:03 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: QBs for Breakfast

There's a changing of the guard at the QB position, for sure. But some of the guards we thought would changing seem to need to be sent back to basic training.

Michael Vick is feeling victimized by the fans and by his mediocre receivers. But he doesn't seem instinctive enough to me. Maybe this is what ails Eli Manning, too. Or maybe both are merely vexed by that simplest and most overlooked attribute: accuracy.

We also have the fascinating goings on in Denver, where a rookie QB is being thrust into a starting role not to develop but to lead his team into the postseason and beyond. Is this unprecedented? Has Shanahan caught the Romo virus? Is every team now looking under the rocks on their practice squads and saying, "Hey, maybe the answer to our problems is right under our nose?"

Shanahan thought that Cutler was the best player in the draft. If he's right, he'll be pretty good right away because Vince Young and even Matt Leinart took steps in the right direction on Sunday. Young, I think, is the anti-Vick in the way he plays.

It's all about the QBs right now in the NFL. It always is, of course, but now it's really front and center. Vick, Eli, Cutler, Romo, Young. Throw in "Mad Bomber" Drew Brees if you want, too. Who will bust and who will burst, to quote Springsteen, just like a supernova? QB Breakfast is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: November 29, 2006 12:12:46 PM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: Q rating and gator baiting

Your faithful table correspondent, checking in from Jacksonville this week. I knew I had landed at JAX when I was gang-tackled at baggage claim, then underthrown with a pass as we left the terminal. At least I didn't turn into gator bait during the morning walk.

The Falcons aren't real - they're script leftovers from the HBO Series "First and 10." The coaches' father criticizes the star quarterback. The owner tells the QB not to worry about it - and then attacks the receivers. The star flips off the fans (and gets fined $5K per finger). The team gets off to a 5-2 start, then collapses. Just watching the Falcons on Short Cuts, I feel like I need a shower.

I've never seen a team so inept at catching the ball though, any level. The New York loss set football back about 30 years. The drops in Detroit were embarrassing. I feel weird saying this because we've criticized Vick for so long, but I really don't think the last month is primarily his fault. That said, if they put Matt Schaub in down the stretch, Atlanta becomes one of my hot reads on any Sunday. (Okay, the wideouts will drop his passes too, you'd suspect. I dunno, maybe these guys have platoon splits, heh. If the Falcons don't win at Washington, Schaub has a legitimate chance to play at Tampa Bay the following week.)

I'm playing the "body language" card on Eli Manning. I want to see him get mad, slam the trunk, get in someone's face. This "aww shucks" Richie Cunningham act is getting tired. This weekend's game with Dallas is going to define their season and could be a huge turning point - for all of New York's gaffes of late, they still control the division if they find a way to win (giving them a Dallas sweep and a still-perfect division record). It's like a hacking golfer saying "Aloha" on the 18th tee.

Tony Romo is too good to be true. The catchable spiral he throws, the sharp decisions, the matinee idol smile, the way he gives guff back to Bill Parcells, I can't get enough. It makes you wonder what what happening at the Cowboys practices in the spring and summer, how many signs of as breakout were evident. I guess Parcells was probably worried about completely rebooting the offense with an unknown quantity - it feels like starting over and setting you back a year or two - but someone taught this kid very well.

Gotta love Mike Shanahan for having the stones to make the move. Okay, maybe it's ego, but that doesn't matter. He's reshuffling the deck with a 7-4 record, that takes cajones; Denver's slumping but I wouldn't call them altogether desperate yet. But Shanahan's being proactive, realizing that he can open up the playbook with Cutler in there. Javon Walker probably did backflips at Monday's practice.

I guess we should talk about the Two Jakes because Delhomme's really lost his way, too. How can a Steve Smith QB have a 6.3 YPA? Just 168 passing yards at Washington, one offensive touchdown against the Rams? Delhomme also has eight picks in his last six games, an awful lot for someone who's not producing big plays consistently. The Panthers are 27th in the league in points, that's not cutting it. I stubbornly held onto the upside of Carolina for most of the year but I'm writing the sell ticket now.

Somewhat related to the QB theme, the Raiders finally admitted the Tom Walsh mistake and re-assigned their offensive coordinator this week. We'll see if the Shoop Shoop Song plays in Oakland. This team could be a sleeping giant - no one wants to mess with this nasty defense, the best kept secret in the league. The Raiders were just 2-3 plays removed from winning at Kansas City *and* at San Diego the last two weeks, and I don't think anyone's really noticed. I would not be surprised if the Raiders finished with a winning record from here on out.

Any thoughts on the Pennington Redemption? What about Oedipus Rex in Chicago - Lovie had to publicly endorse him, coaches have no real choice, but how soon before Griese is the word? Can the rejuvenated Carson Palmer get it done against Baltimore? Is Marc Bulger just a sitting duck behind that makeshift line? Did Matt Leinart turn a corner in Minnesota? Take these questions a la carte - take what you like, leave what you don't.

That's one of my favorite Springsteens, by the way. But I felt guilty for thinking of Liz Phair pretty quickly after I read "Supernova." I have no real proof, but there's a chick that gets downfield.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: November 29, 2006 4:58:15 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Q rating and gator baiting

Liz Phair: hottest alternative chick ever. Her music sucks of late, but I like her album covers and willingness to cater to every teen fantasy there and in her lyrics. She actually looks like one of those teachers who gets busted for seducing the 15 year old, a modern phenomenon sadly missing when I was young and oh-so-willing.

I like to say something dramatic about this time of year. And, since we're speaking of Tony Romo, here it goes: Dallas will not lose again this year, will be the No. 2 seed and will be favored in the NFL championship game at Chicago. Right now, they're comfortably the best team in football according to my stats. And that's with all those Bledsoe stats. Bledsoe could very well be a No. 1 overall pick twice replaced by unknown QBs who lead their teams to a Super Bowl.

Vick still has no pocket awareness. He has no sense of how to dodge engaged blockers in front of him. He always wants to go forward and runs right into waiting arms. He also has no instincts with his progressions. I've said this elsewhere this week, but it just came to me and I think it's key to understanding the efficacy of running QBs. For them, running is another progression. And QBs need to race through progressions quickly and then act decisively when they make up their mind. Vince Young showed this in college, where he was far superior to Michael Vick as a player. And Young has begun to show this in the pros now about eight games into his career. Vick is too far in. He's gone. And I was pulling for him in midseason, but it was a mirage.

I think Vick should be benched right now. But he won't be. And he won't be if they lose again, either. Remember, he ran for all those yards so, according to Warrick Dunn, he had a great game. Ravens DE Trevor Pryce says he'd rather face Peyton Manning "any day" than Vick. Maybe he got his Mannings mixed up or maybe he's just a fool. I wanted to make this point last week about Tiki Barber when he said that everyone knows that the teams have success run the ball. Professional chess players really know chess. Professional football players only know how to play their position. They might have insight into the broader aspects of the game, but it's far from certain because they are all, by definition, specialists.

We've been hearing about the Falcons dropping passes for weeks. They have 20 officially for the season in the updated stats. That's 11 off the lead (Philly), but is worse than it looks because the Falcons don't throw a lot. Still, I think this is being emphasized because it sort of absolves Vick and gives him and the Falcons hope.

Body language with Eli is the big story here, too. But I haven't heard the Richie Cunningham line, which is funny and spot on. Pretty soon, he's going to be Opie. He's getting smaller each week. The Giants are trying to play around him and when you try to play around your QB, you're dead. But there are other problems for Big Blue. The defense is more miss than hit. The rushing game is no longer consistent. The receivers don't get open (Plax isn't a good route runner at all). The Giants offense has no timing and rhythm. Dallas waxes them Sunday, 31-17.

Can a guy just be hot in football? If he happens to be hot right away, do we sometimes mistakenly assume the player is better than he is? We all look for meaning in everything. But could Romo's 2006 just be a random event? Think of Scott Mitchell in 1993 with Miami and, even better, in 1995 with the Lions. Or maybe Charlie Batch (I just want you to keep Detroit in your mind even though you're in the Sunshine State). Or what about your boy Brian Griese (staying in Michigan, sort of)?

Good point about Delhomme. I guess now Bill Parcells is glad he fell through the cracks, leaving him with Romo. Even worse than the YPA, the Panthers are 27th in yards per completion (10.7, Dallas is first at 13.1). The Panthers officially stink. The secondary is very good, however.

The Raiders won't possibly have a winning record from here on out because they have one of the worst offenses I've ever seen. So, the Raiders offense is guaranteed to look worse every week than however bad their defense makes the opposing offense look. A coaching change isn't making this better. The defense is good, but teams are just trying to get out of Dodge in one piece, setting for low-scoring wins. Another thing to watch for in these situations is the defense just getting sick of the hopelessness of it and giving up. You go up 14-0 on them somehow and they will close up shop in a hurry, guaranteed.

Pennington and Grossman. First Chad. The Jets have to throw the ball downfield more against everyone, not just the bad defenses. Last week, five passes 20 yards or more. Three were complete, one drew an interference, one incomplete. If the Jets continue to dink and dunk, Pennington has to be A LOT more efficient in the red zone (31st in QB rating inside the opposing 20).

Grossman is still doing well enough on the deep throws. But he lacks intermediate accuracy (67 QB rating on 11-to-20 yard tosses). He also has to lose those Vulcan eyebrows.

I'm bearish on Carson Palmer this week because I don't think the protection will hold up. I hope I'm wrong though because I'd like to see the Bengals make a run. They have a good enough pass defense this year to scare teams. They're actually good against No. 1 and No. 2 receivers, bad in YPA, average in points allowed per attempt and very good, again, at picking off passes. So, on balance, good enough with that offense.

I knew Bulger was done when Pace went out. Nothing interesting to add there. And Leinart has to show me something in a game that's not blown up in the fourth quarter. In a QB redraft, I still take Vince Young No. 1. But let me see Cutler on Sunday.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: November 29, 2006 5:45:59 PM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: which way to orange park

Richie Cunningham checks in, says a few well-timed "Buckos" can fix Eli. Red also wants to know if the Cowboys still have that kicker opening.

Drop counts in football are like error counts in baseball - you can't trust the messenger. If a player doesn't tear the ball to shreds, apparently, it's no harm, no foul. The last two times I graded the Falcon receivers I got 15 drops, total. I might be crazy enough to watch every snap next season and launch nfldrops.net.

We've been riding together in this Dallas bandwagon for a while. Their defense is quietly doing an excellent job as well. Demarcus Ware is becoming a monster. I really like both of the corners. The front seven is versatile, the coordinator Mike Zimmer (who can't be publicized because Parcells would have a nutty) is very shrewd. And if you don't like watching Marion Barber run people over, you don't like football.

I should have ripped into Burress earlier but I guess I'll jump in now. Nice job tanking that route, Plexiglass. How can a veteran be that lazy when he's played seven years for Bill Cowher and Tom Coughlin? I feel sorry for the Giants fans who have to root for this guy.

That strange Mathias Kiwanuka play is another leftover from New York's tank job. I feel sorry for the kid. It probably did look like Vince Young had already delivered the ball, and he was probably smart to be concerned about a roughing the passer flag because officials have become ridiculous with that call. Silly. Why not switch to two-hand touch and get it over with?

I've always believed in a hot hand theory for most sports (just because it doesn't fit into a quantifiable context doesn't mean it doesn't exist). Billy Volek, anyone? Didn't Bobby Hoying get the Eagles excited for one month? I think part of the equation is confidence, impossible to quantify but you absolutely have to have it. And when a QB goes the other way and loses his mojo, it's painful to watch. That said, this type of thing doesn't really carry over season to season - you lose your golf swing over the winter, and you can lose your pocket mojo through the spring. No matter how smoking Romo might be at the end of 2006, we can't make too many 2007 assumptions on him. Teams will have eight months to plot his demise, too (I feel like I'm disowning my son as I say this).

Maybe three games is too ambitious for the Raiders but here's my crazy BT proclamation - I'm guaranteeing at least two wins for them to close out 2006. The defense is that good, and at least the OC change gives the offense hope (sometimes players do better once the scapegoat is clearly defined). They have a good chance against Houston. The St. Louis offensive line is going to get exposed in Week 15. The Chiefs? They almost beat them in Arrowhead, why not give them a chance in Oakland. And if the Jets aren't playoff eligible come Week 17, don't be surprised if the game turns into a lab experiment and defense carries the day. (There's no self-interest here, by the way. Full disclosure: I've hated the Raiders ever since they traded Snake Stabler. But this defense gets my blood pumping.)

I don't think Grossman has the stomach for the game, seriously. He's a kindergarten kid who wets his pants when they won't let him in the kickball game; the slightest bit of negative feedback seems to put him on tilt. Given how tiny the championship window can be in the NFL, the Bears are crazy if they're not increasing Griese's rep count on the sly. (Keep in mind Lovie did bench Orton for Grossman last year despite a winning hand. Apples to oranges - Orton wasn't any good and they were winning in spite of him - but at least there's something close to a precedent here.)

Protection carries the day in Cincinnati, you're right, that's the story. The Ravens don't have the secondary to match the Bengals downfield - no one does. Samari Rolle really hasn't had a good year. Chris Henry is a nightmare matchup for any nickel corner. Palmer can make all the throws and most importantly, all the reads. Even when he was still learning to crawl he was productive against this defense.

That said, I'm probably the last guy to accept how good the overall Baltimore defense really is. The 2000 Ravens physically dominated you, they ran over you. This group is more athletic, versatile, and dare I say it, dynamic. I hope the keg isn't kicked because this is one party I was definitely late to. The Monday game is a dog this week, but the Thursday nighter makes up for it.