New Breakfast Served on Thursdays

"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Cold Shoulder, Colt, Cowboy & Cavity Breakfast

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: November 14, 2006 5:31:45 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Week 11 Breakfast

Did the Jets really win in New England or did I dream that like when I was seven and sleeping in my Jets jammies? If the Jets beat the Bears this week, is the Man-genius (or Man-genie) coach of the year with or without sourpuss Belichick's vote?

This is the point of every season where we talk about the Colts going undefeated. Unbeaten seasons don't interest me at all and I'm not sure why. Maybe because you still have to win the Super Bowl. And if you do, who cares whether you were unbeaten in the regular season. I would like to see those spoilsport 1972 Dolphins choke on their champagne.

The Giants spit the bit on Sunday night and can kiss home-field advantage throughout the playoffs goodbye. Heck, with the Seahawks getting healthy and owning the tiebreaker, the Giants will be lucky to even get the bye week. Of course, they may have passed the injury breaking point for even making the playoffs. David Rivers or Eli Manning? Let's redraft.

Can Dallas end Indy's run this week in Irving? Who is dead and alive in the seemingly suddenly wide-open AFC playoff picture? Is the AFC many orders of magnitude better than the NFC or am I just imagining that? This is the time of year where a lot of teams fall off the table. But we can really savor those that most seem to matter. Week 11 Breakfast is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: November 15, 2006 5:44:08 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: drugstore cowboys

It's my week to throw out the prescription disclaimer - I had some dental work done so I'm writing under the influence. If any of my arguments become hazier than usual, I trust you can fill in the blanks.

Speaking of hazy, what the hell's happened to New England the last couple of weeks? Tom Brady's off the mark, Richard Seymour is off the field (invisible on it), and the pitch looks like Max Yasgur's farm the day after. Maybe we can simplify and point to the line of scrimmage - when push came to shove Sunday the Jets front seven got off their blocks and made plays, and New England never really figured out the New York blitz packages. Good for Gang Green. I'm not in love with the Jets offense, but Kevan Barlow kept the muddy pile moving and Jerricho Cotchery had another highlight film catch. New England also blew its chance to take control of the game early - the Doug Gabriel fumble early in the second quarter was a killer - but by the end of the day it was clear the right team won.

Bill Belichick's cold shoulder act with Eric Mangini is weak, no other way to put it. Okay, I get it, The Man in the Hoodie has a rift with the Jets that apparently is unfixable. Fine. But to be classless and disrespectful to a former assistant just because said assistant had the audacity to want to take a full-time job in the league, that's petty and just lame. Seymour was 100 percent right when he said the Patriots were outplayed and outcoached Sunday.

I don't think the Colts are going 16-0 and the sooner they lose, the better (it's such a nothing story). I can picture the Cowboys picking them off this week; if Dallas hadn't handed away the Week 9 game at Washington, we'd be praising them as the second best team in the NFC (I might be there anyway; if loving Tony Romo is wrong, I don't want to be right.) Indy gets three other legitimate tests, the Eagles (the darling team of the stat geeks), Bengals (going nowhere but still formidable) and Jaguars (offense is a mess, but defense shows up at home).

I can't really fault the Giants for the ugly loss to Chicago - another game that started off one-sided then abruptly changed direction in a New York minute. It's possible to overrate the impact of a couple of injuries, but the never-ending carnage story from the Meadowlands is ridiculous. Both pass-rushing ends. A couple of impact linebackers (no, not you, LaVar). The best cover guy (by default) in the secondary. A solid possession receiver, the type of guy who keeps Eli Manning on schedule. The starting left tackle. Any team that gets hammered like that is going to feel it against a legitimate opponent, and by the second half it was clear the Giants had no way to get Rex Grossman. The kick return by Devin Hester gets most of the water-cooler talk, but the horse was probably out of the barn already.

This doesn't mean I'm sold on Chicago, mind you. The running game isn't going to win any games on its own. The defense has morphed into a bend-don't-break unit over the last few weeks - good offenses should move the ball on the Bears. The NFC has a bunch of potentially-problematic matchups, depending on who makes the tournament. I hate to keep trotting out the same argument but if Chicago faces two legitimate pass rushes in the playoffs, I see them as extremely vulnerable, even at home. Grossman's erratic footwork and less-than-ideal height are things you can exploit.

I don't see the AFC being as wide-open as you do. Only the winning records need apply (the Bengals have no defense and too many tough games left), and that's just eight teams. Kansas City and Jacksonville probably argue over the last playoff spot - the Jets are a nice story but their 5-4 is build on a shaky foundation (I don't trust the defense, and Pennington's last five games were a big step down from the first four). New England is ripe for the picking but the schedule is too cushy and Brady won't play this poorly forever. Baltimore and Indy get their division titles in the mail before December, and while the Broncos and Chargers slug it out for the AFC West.

These Chargers put a bounce in my step. The defense is held together by scotch tape for the moment - banged up, no Shawne Merriman for a few more weeks, a spotty secondary - but the way the offense is humming along, who cares? I was skeptical on Philip Rivers entering the season (I thought his upside was Bernie Kosar), but he's made a mockery of that. The kid is smart, decisive, cannon arm, balls of a burglar. On any passing play these guys have six different targets who can beat you. And the running back isn't bad either, heh. This is still the team Indy least wants to play during the AFC Playoffs (especially with Merriman back in the mix).

You get us started on the NFC Lottery and I'll pick up with you on the next reply. Not much has been decided - only four teams are out of it. For fun I'll give those also-rans a token comment on the way out: Denny Green's moving day looks like Jan. 2; Joe Gibbs's terrible decision on Mark Brunell equals a tarnished legacy; I have a funny feeling Jon Gruden isn't rooted to Tampa Bay; what exactly would it take to get Matt Millen fired?

Let's also continue to fill out the Week 11 dance card - comments on Dallas-Indy and Denver-San Diego are mandatory, but I see at least 3-4 other games that have some juice to them. Order them up a-la-carte and I'll reply in kind when the vikes wear off (or maybe as they kick in).

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: November 15, 2006 2:21:52 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: drugstore cowboys

Did they really tell the crowd in Foxboro not to drink the brown acid on Sunday? I was waiting for Ravi Shankar to play at halftime. But it was not a day of peace and love and mud, as you note, with Belichick's snub of Mangini.

I feel for Bill. He's not a sociable guy, obviously. He's tight-lipped. And he probably opened up his head and his heart for Mangini only to see the pupil plant his flag at the Meadowlands. Now, he has to basically compete with himself, except Mangini's younger and seems to relate better to players. Mangini is already viewed as a guru (only others can label someone a guru, as you know). That's going to slow down the stream of below-market, tough, smart free agents into Foxboro and provide a significant obstacle to New England's continued success.

As for the game, the Pats couldn't have prepared for that blitz because the Jets had been very conservative defensively all year. Sunday, they sent five or more rushers on 28 of 32 straight passing plays; 13 of these times they sent six or more. The score would have been worse if the Jets hadn't gotten jobbed out of a huge interception and return because of another in this endless series of ridiculous roughing the passer calls.

They'll do the same thing against the Bears because Rex Grossman is very shaky when pressured and knocked down. I just did a piece for SNY.tv (the Mets/Jets network website) that noted that Grossman is 19-of-65 with a 19.1 QB rating, one touchdown and four picks when pressured. When knocked down, he's 2-for-17 (just eight yards) with no touchdowns, two picks and a zero QB rating.

But what do these stats mean? Isn't it reasonable to assume that all quarterbacks stink when they're being pressured and knocked down?

Well, Chad Pennington, when pressured is 16-for-27 with 8.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and a 94 QB rating (three TDs, two picks). When knocked down, Pennington is 9-for-14 with a 124.1 QB rating and 10.7 YPA (one TD, no picks). I know that I'm nuts to think the Jets can beat the Bears but I'm coming right out and saying it. They just have to be much more aggressive on first down (the Bears Achilles heel). A 180-degree change in their offensive playcalling is the remaining trick that Mangini can pull out of his hat to shock another elite team.

I think the Chargers are in a different class than the Broncos. Denver is doing it with mirrors, defensively. San Diego has the passing game in its hip pocket if they ever need it. Realize that San Diego essentially traded Eli Manning for Rivers, Merriman and Kaeding (as gravy). That has to be one of the top five best draft trades in NFL history. Of course, if you're a Giants fan, you're crying in your beer because Eli right now is badly outclassed by Rivers, who looks off receivers and plays with poise at all times. The Giants weren't going to draft Rivers, of course. But Roethlisberger looks better than Eli, too. Much better.

Jacksonville and KC? Let's look at the schedule. I'll conservatively give the Jags three more losses (assuming a win versus the Giants this week, far from certain): Colts, Patriots and at KC. Of course, Jacksonville is impossible to predict. But when you lose twice to the Texans, you can't expect better than 9-7, can you?

The Chiefs have four tough games left and three of them are at home. At San Diego seems like the only sure loss. But I think at Cleveland will be tough. I agree they're the favorites for the second wildcard. They'll likely win 10, which seems impossible for Jacksonville and unlikely for the Jets unless they can either win this week versus the Bears or take two of three at Minny, at Green Bay and at Miami (the toughest one, I think, though the Packers are underrated).

Quickly with the NFC: the Bears are a lock as No. 1 seed. The Seahawks have a clear path to No. 2. And that's about it as far as things reasonably clear at the moment. The Giants could not make the playoffs, easily, given their injuries and Manning's regression. I really like Dallas with Romo. They're the team that could sneak into the Super Bowl, in my opinion. I don't like Philly's inability to play with a lead, though they did a nice job of that last week. Can Westbrook hold up? I doubt it. Plus, and this may be unfair, I think McNabb is a Nervous Nellie in a big spot. Michael Vick has regressed and is ignoring the intermediate zone, which is primed for attack on those plays where he breaks the pocket. I think the Panthers stink. They're last in third-down percentage, a very key stat. Plus I don't believe in the defense. I'm rooting for the Saints, but can the defense hold up with a porous secondary and no serious running game to control the clock when they have a late lead?

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: November 16, 2006 7:49:23 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: all the best cowboys have chinese eyes

The Who played a 24-song set at Woodstock, by the way, going on stage around 3 a.m. How tremendous that must have been. Abbie Hoffman made a run for the band at one point, but Pete Townshend was excellent in blitz pickup those days - he easily bounced the chucklehead off the stage.

I'm all for giving Mangini his props (he's just one New Orleans slump away from COY honors) but you're ready to promote these Jets before I am. The only win they have to hang their hat on is last week's at Foxboro, and in some ways that strikes me as a perfect storm of events; repeat matchup, poor weather (something the less-talented team in any matchup should root for), the Belichick motivation angle, etc. The Jets were off the bye, the Pats off the Colts game. This is not to say the Jets didn't earn the win - they were the better team on the field - but timing certainly played a hand in it. I also wouldn't view it as a victory over an elite team - the Patriots have three home losses all of a sudden, and the value of their wins at Cincinnati and Minnesota is declining by the day.

I was shocked New England wasn't better prepared for the Jets blitzing because we saw that angle in the second half of the first meeting (when New York made its mad comeback). Outcoached, indeed. At least the Pats finally admitted the silliness of using a mud slide for a home field - Gillette Stadium will have Field Turf in place when the team returns home for Week 12.

If the Jets don't get to Rex Grossman early and often, they'll lose by double digits. I thought the Bears would have no vertical element with Bernard Berrian out but Mark Bradley resurfaced just in time. Thomas Jones doesn't excite anyone but he moves the chains (the Jets still haven't stopped anyone on the ground all year). Who's going to cover Muhsin Muhammad? Can you see New York's offensive line (okay, a very improved line) keeping the Bears off Chad Pennington's back? Is Kevan Barlow capable of producing two weeks in a row? I'm crowning Chicago's ass, 30-17.

The Denver offense has fooled me all year. I expected a slow comeback for Javon Walker - nope, he's been great. I figured Shanahan could hide Jake Plummer - umm, not really. I expected the running game to crank out the yards like it always has - oops, blew that one too. Tatum Bell pulls the rug out from under me about once per year - never again. He's just a home run reserve, not someone you can consistently sustain drives with. If Plummer lays an egg Sunday night, does Shanahan break out the Cutlery for Thanksgiving? (Notice how we can't get away from these National TV logjams with the same teams. Oh well, at least AFC West games are always interesting, so long as the Raiders aren't involved. And flex scheduling is a present to all of us, so I'll stop complaining now.)

Giant fans are going to want to egg my house but Eli Manning is starting to remind me of Steve Grogan, the on-again, off-again downfield daredevil the Patriots had in the 1970s and 1980s. When Eli's in a groove, the yards come in chunks, the points come quickly. It's fun to watch an offense aggressively chuck the ball downfield, so few teams do it anymore. But when Manning's mechanics go south, look out below. I know New Yorkers will scoff at the sample size at play, but Philip Rivers is definitely the more keepable cornerstone right now. San Diego hit a grand slam on this trade, as you point out; it's even better than the slick move the Bolts pulled off in 2001 (passing on Michael Vick first, taking LaDainian Tomlinson at five, then later - with their own pick - grabbing Drew Brees).

I have an irrational fear that the Jaguars will make the playoffs just because we all can't stand watching them play. But be careful using any small game sample when defining this team - as bad as the Houston losses look, Jacksonville has done a lot of good things (win at Philly, home shutout of the Steelers, solid opener over Dallas, and that 41-0 ambush on Gang Green.) Ultimately their January invite (if it comes) won't matter because that offense isn't capable of winning multiple games in the playoffs, but I think Team Shrek is going to keep a better team out of the playoffs again.

I have a hard time looking at Carolina rationally because they have two absolute monsters in key positions (Steve Smith looks all the way back, Julius Peppers is the best defensive player in the NFC). But the rest of the team leaves me cold: DeShaun Foster isn't even replacement level at this point, the line isn't a factor, Jake Delhomme got so underrated he's actually overrated now, the linebackers are exposed regularly. I'd still give them a shot to play Beat the Bears if it comes to it, but the teams that survive the NFC East are ultimately going to have the best chance.

The Seahawks won't matter if they can't get the inside track - they haven't played a solid road game since the end of last year and the secondary has too many holes in it. It's easy to fall in love with what the Eagles do well, but they're still patching a lot of holes at the end of the day (and their back seven isn't much, either). Don't be surprised if the NFC East becomes Romegeneous by the end of the year - if the Cowboys find a way to take down the Colts this week (and even without Greg Ellis I think they have an excellent shot), they become the division favorite in my eyes. And I think they're built the right way to win at Chicago.

To be continued. I can't finish that french toast because the dentist is finishing me off in eight hours. Grab the check and give me a lift home, would you amigo?

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: November 16, 2006 9:09:47 AM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: all the best cowboys have chinese eyes

Field Turf for the Patriots? They don't seem built for speed, but maybe I'm putting undo emphasis on Corey Dillon running out of gas on that long run last week, the first 50-yard run of the entire Belichick era.

I did my Stat Power Index (rankings) and the results were humbling for Jets fans. New York ranks 22nd. But then I got to thinking about using this type of tool to judge coaching. In other words, if the Jets were 22nd, how many wins should they have if wins were as evenly distributed in the NFL as ranking points? For the most part, wins and cumulative rankings in the key stats correlate quite nicely. The Jets are obviously an outlier on the plus side (from the Man-Genius' perspective). They should have 3.5 wins. Yet they have five. Seattle is about 1.5 wins better than expected. Sean Payton has coached the Saints to at least one victory than they deserve. On the negative (bad coaching) side, the Cowboys, by my rankings, should have seven wins, but only have five. The Rams are almost two wins worse than they should be. Pittsburgh should be 5-4 at least according the stats, so Cowher, by this measure, has done a bad job.

I don't think the score will be that bad, but the line seems right. Call it 20-14, Bears. But if Berrian doesn't play or is limited (looking less likely given he practiced fully yesterday), the Jets can pull the upset because Grossman looked really bad until the entire game turned on that give-up draw play by Jones for 26 yards (setting up the first TD). This year, once Grossman gets on a roll, he stays on a roll.

Hasn't Plummer already survived the Cutler threat by playing well versus the Colts and Steelers? I can't see a QB change to a rookie at this stage of the season. But Shanahan defies understanding. Stephen Hawking needs to suspend work on his Theory of Everything and work on the most maddening problem in the universe, which is a formula for figuring out who Shanny is going to start at RB from week to week.

I really thought you were going to rally to Eli's defense. He stacks up pretty well in historical, young-QB comps. But this is a different game now. The league has swung every rule in favor of the offense since the biggest change in NFL history, which was moving in the hashmarks. So, QBs, young and old, should dominate very quickly if they are truly great. If I was the Giants or a fan, I'd be worrying about Ken O'Brien, who looked like he was going to be great for about five minutes early in his career (actually the entire 1985 season and a good part of 1986) before he regressed. Manning can't sustain any greatness, even within a single game. There's no excuse for this with the weapons at his disposal.

To make the playoffs, the Jaguars are going to have to win what will basically be a playoff game that final week at KC. Not happening. Maybe I'm just wishing here, but I can't see it. Really, though, I don't think either of those three teams -- Jets, Jags, Chiefs -- will be a tough out come January; and one of them is seemingly in. Maybe the Chiefs can rev up the offense consistently with Green back. But I root for the Bengals, who have a puncher's chance with that offense. But they're now seemingly a lost cause.

The Seahawks have saved their season. There's one game left where they won't be favored (at Denver). Hasselbeck will be back for that one. I can see them going 12-4. And 11-5 seems a lock. That will earn the No. 2 seed.

Fantasy investors in Colts better hope for a loss this week and in one or two more in their other tough games (Philly, at Jacksonville, Cincy). Dungy announced that he's calling off the dogs again as soon as they clinch. This, of course, will be a Table topic for another day. I do think Dallas beats the Colts this week in a 31-28 type classic.

Now finish that smoothie and let's get you off to your dentist, Dr. Szell. Remember, Novacaine is overrated. Just make sure you have an answer for all his questions.