New
Breakfast Served on Thursdays
"The Breakfast
Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends
Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high
in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments.
But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist
are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps
of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan.
They've been tabling together since 2002."
Breakfast At Eight
 From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 24, 2006 1:02:37 AM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Week 8 Breakfast
Was it two weeks ago when all the favorites one? This week, nine of 13 underdogs not just covered but won outright. But there is big news on the big teams (or at least the teams that were supposed to be big). Matt Hasselbeck is out for at least three weeks. Ben Roethlisberger went down with another concussion that looked severe to me (anytime you're carted off....) just as he seemed all the way back from his motorcycle mishap. Bill Parcells pulled the plug on Drew Bledsoe and perhaps his season and coaching career, arguably prematurely. The Broncos still have no offense, have now lost their left tackle, but want to win with a defense that is record setting in allowing points, on paper. Peyton Manning looks like he's got his mojo back just as his defense sustained two major losses. The Eagles blew an unbelievable game to Tampa Bay on an improbable 62-yard field goal right after they seemingly stole it. The Chargers not only lost, but are likely to be without Shawne Merriman for four weeks as soon as he loses his steroids appeal. Even worse for the Bolts, their other bookend rusher, Shaun Phillips is out a month with a torn calf. So, however you spell it, I guess it's Shawn of the Dead now in Diego (throwing out the best horror/comedy of the last 20 years in there as we head into Halloween). That's a lot of candy corn in the intro, and I haven't even touched on Michael Vick (who we have to praise this week after burying all year), the still-not-right Carson Palmer and the Bengals, the mystifying Panthers, unreliable Jags, depressing Dolphins and surprising Jets and Vikings. A full plate, for sure. But, hey, it was a big Week 7. Breakfast is served.  From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: October 25, 2006 2:39:57 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: feeling gravity's pull
I'm behind in my tape watching, so I reserve the right to contradict myself like crazy in my next entry. With that caveat established, we table.
A lot of team carnage to go with the player variety. The Cowboys and Steelers may have expired. The Eagles and Panthers blew games they'll regret. Does Jake Delhomme makes too many silly throws to be taken seriously? And why can't smart guys like Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid figure out how to manage the clock in a two-minute drill? These guys leave more points on the table then a couple of drunk cribbage players.
Seattle looked terrible from start to finish - I'm embarrassed I didn't see this coming sooner. People will point to Shaun Alexander bring hurt and Matt Hasselbeck getting hurt, but the offensive line hasn't played well all year and the secondary hands out big plays to everyone (at this point Larry Herndon might be an improvement over Kelly Herndon). Seattle might find a way to sneak past the Rams but this team isn't a threat in January, not with road games looming.
Is it time we started taking the Vikings seriously? Brad Childress has that quality control mentality all good coaches seem to share. I hope Brian Billick had a good seat for Minnesota's win at Seattle, watching Chester Taylor break tackles and Marcus Robinson score on a long one. Taylor's 95-yard score gets all of the attention but he had a bunch of short runs that look better on tape then they do on the game chart. There's no way he's not better than Jamal Lewis, but as you pointed out backstage, Billick is still burying guys so he can plod along with Lewis. When does the genius tag expire on Billick, anyway?
The enigma tag looks stuck on the Jaguars, who never showed up in Houston apparently. That was a four-quarter ass kicking. Why play Byron Leftwich when he's hurt? And what happened to the defense, has it lost too many guys at this point? Jacksonville will probably spank Houston in two weeks anyway, but it's going to be a long time before I fall for this team's siren song again.
I cry no tears for the Cowboys, who should have known all along what they had with an immobile Drew Bledsoe and a line that can't pass block. The catch is that Bill Parcells doesn't want to coach all that much longer, so getting Tony Romo ready last year or this summer was never really an option. Monday's benching was a desperate move, a last straw, a Hail Mary. I can't see how either QB would do much in Carolina Sunday night (repise the vent: I hate it when teams get stand-alone prime time games one after another.)
The Redskins are basically the Cowboys without the defense. Joe Gibbs isn't long for the party either but he was hoping Mark Brunell had something left (we know the verdict there). Clinton Portis hates the offense. The defense can't rush the passer or cover people - maybe that's a chicken-egg thing but it's a lethal combination. Why did they trade a draft pick for T.J. Duckett again? They couldn't figure out from four years of film that he didn't fit their scheme? (Okay, I took my shots at Gibbs. Let me tee up Nick Saban for you, go ahead, have at it.)
If I'm the Steelers I shelve Ben Roethlisberger for the year. What's the point? Why risk the next ten years of your franchise? Let him get right before he's on a field again. And heck, Charlie Batch hasn't played all that bad anyway - he can temp the rest of the year, fine. Maybe you get back in it, maybe you don't. But don't flush your future.
Okay, I enjoyed watching the Cardinals get nine crummy points at Oakland. Good thing Denny Green fired the offensive coordinator who constructed the game plan that put up four scores and 20 points in a half against Chicago, all with a rookie QB making his second start, a horrible offensive line, and no Larry Fitzgerald. All 19 Arizona fans should be storming team HQ and demanding Green's ouster. Anyone unclear on what Green really knows and doesn't know about football can make up their mind when Denny lands on TV or radio again - listen to him for five minutes and you'll know the score.
Just when we're all ready to crown the Chargers they found a way to lose to the Greenless Chiefs, even if it was at Arrowhead. Shawne Merriman's agent played the supplement card, which I guess is what you do when they suspend you in any sport. The player I really feel sorry for is Willis McGahee - the NFL apparently won't approve his allergy medication, so he needs to stay out of the end zone every Sunday (two scores in 17 weeks).
I'd like to congratulate Michael Vick for his first hat trick (three TD passes in a game - of course he threw four). Mind you it only took him 57 starts to get there (it took Matt Schaub two). You play how you wanna play, seven! The Falcons are a unique team but that doesn't mean they're really any good. Alge Crumpler is the only receiver who can catch anything (they won't dump it to Warrick Dunn anymore). Maybe DeAngelo Hall isn't a shutdown corner after all. They got their one monster game from John Abraham, but don't hold your breath for any more (I realize I'm preaching to the choir there).
What to make of the Patriots, quietly flying under the radar? Can Mike Shanahan make do with a shaky Jake Plummer and no left tackle? How good is that defense anyway? Why can't people appreciate Peyton Manning from September to December? Maybe it's the dopey commercials (other than the D-Caf one, I'd flush em' all. But I loved the Mannings imitating each other for the NBC cameras before the opener.)
Alright, enough ranting and ripping. I want some happy stories, so sort out New York for me. Mangini Jets, playoff contenders? Is Chad Pennington making it cool to be smart again? How good is Leon Washington? How shaky is that defense? And what about the Giants, are they a major threat with their cool QB and their pass rush firing again? I'm not going to mention No. 21 because ESPN did 759 times on Monday night, but Brandon Jacobs has become a necessary part, too, a short yardage monster who no one wants to tackle. Maybe they're the biggest threat to the Bears (who gained an insane amount of ground on the field in a week where they didn't even play; ditto the Saints and Rams.)
Table to you, I'm off to lunch. And if you want to lose your appetite, go check the quarterbacks we'll be watching on Thanksgiving Day.
From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 25, 2006 10:00:11 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: feeling gravity's pull
I always reserve the right to contradict myself. When I was guesting Monday on his XM show, Liss pulled out something I'm sure I said this summer about Tony Gonzalez and I had zero memory of it. (But it sounded like something I'd say!) I try to forget about what I say in this business because I always want my allegiance to be to the facts as I'm currently interpreting them rather than however they seemed to me in the past (when they were probably quite different).
I usually go in order with these replies, but your Roethlisberger statement shocked me. I thought I was out on the limb with the concussion stuff in a way that could arguably be called alarmist (especially in light of the recent T.O. Table). But I'm glad to see we're in agreement. Isn't it an outrage that the the NFL won't even adapt the recommendations of the American Academy of Neurology, which advises that players in Roethlisberger's current situation (two knock-out concussions in less than six months) be out for one month after going symptom free for one week? That would sideline Roethlisberger at least five weeks. Like you said, you don't play games with your brain. Trent Green did the right thing and so did the Chiefs, though I think that if Green was the type to want to rush back in, KC gladly would have let him.
How can we expect the defending champs to flush their season? This is why you need medical guidelines because you can't have medical decisions influenced by anything other than the health of the player when long-term, life-altering health is at stake (this isn't a pulled hammy).
My Stat Power Index sure takes the Vikings seriously. I was shocked to see they're fourth. If the Vikings were playing like the Broncos and vice versa, I'm sure that the Broncos (14th in my rankings) would still be getting all the props. I think the Vikings are clearly better than Denver, who can't move the ball well enough (last in the entire NFL with just 11 red zone possessions, and a lot of teams have now had byes) and don't protect it particularly well, either (12th most picks). As you've said, they've lost a cornerstone left tackle for the year. And for all the supposed defense excellence, they are 16th in sack percentage and have picked off just five passes this year against a bunch of pretty lousy QBs. I think Peyton carves 'em up like a Halloween pumpkin on Sunday.
I have had a bad feeling about Seattle since about Week 2. But, in fairness to them, they had four impact players last year and have already lost three of them (Alexander, Hasselbeck and Hutchinson). Only Jones is left. That's not enough to be good.
The Cowboys could have had Jake Delhomme when he was a free agent but screwed that up because Parcells haggled (or didn't step in) over meaningless and relatively minor free agent dollars. They didn't want Drew Brees this spring because Parcells doesn't like weak-armed QBs (which really is a blind spot and shows he never really liked Pennington, who Parcells' minions here in the NY media keep trotting out to credit his GM skill, but only when Chad is healthy and playing well -- and he always plays well when he's healthy).
I thought benching Drew Bledsoe was a move exactly as you characterized it. But why throw a hail mary when you're down by less than a score and starting the second half with the ball?
The Redskins would be okay in wildcard sense if they had beaten Tennessee. That's the game where you really have to indict Gibbs, Brunell and the entire coaching staff (and let's not forget that high-priced roster, either).
If you're Miami, do you even think about firing Saban? What has he done right since January? Anything?
I don't think Vick has learned much and certainly not enough. I saw no epiphany, stylistically. There were 13 passes where he was flushed or moved out of the pocket by himself. He ran on five of these plays and was sacked once. He has to (A) move out of the pocket on most of his pass plays and (B) throw on about two-thirds of the plays when he moves out of the pocket. He's not accurate enough to ever make a living in the tackle box. But he can be scarier than Freddy Krueger in the original "Nightmare On Elm Street" if he'd follow this advice.
I think the Chiefs could make some noise and am quite frankly shocked by how well Damon Huard has played (competently, at least). Really, what's wrong with Tomlinson? He looks very spry as a receiver but there's much less explosion to my eye as a runner. Agreed?
That is so funny what you said about Green revealing his lack of knowledge as an announcer. Maybe he's just a bad communicator, but that has to be about 50 percent of coaching at least, no? I feel that way about Lou Pinella, playoff colorman, who always can be counted on to say the things most clear-headed baseball thinkers realized were wrong about 20 years ago. You know the dumbest thing that Green did? Putting the offensive coordinator on the sideline. Seriously, NFL coaches I'm sure would almost universally shake their head in amazement at the mere suggestion of such a thing. If you told any team in the NFL that their coaches had to leave the press box and return to the field while their opponents could stay up there in the nest, they'd all stroke. Green VOLUNTEERS to do this.
Jets and Giants? I like Leon Washington but need to see if he can hold up. The bigger story there is the offensive line is really starting to come around. Pennington is all the way back and again at least a top 10 NFL QB. The defense isn't good but is showing some signs. Dewayne Robertson was very active last week against Detroit, but we have to see him put together two games in a row. The Giants have been very impressive now for three weeks in a row. I think they have a clear shot to the No. 2 seed (given they've already beaten Atlanta and Seattle's woes). Remember, Minny can't be the two seed because Chicago is winning that division. I probably like the Rams more than anyone, the Saints, not as much as most.
I think this would be a good time to make some playoff predictions. I'm giving the divisions to St. Louis, Chicago, Atlanta and the Giants. The NFC wildcards will be Minnesota and I have no idea. Can Seattle win a game with Seneca Wallace? Can Romo lift Dallas?
In the AFC, I predict the Broncos are going to crash and burn and Jake Plummer won't be the QB by Thanksgiving. I'm giving San Diego the West. Then it's Cincy in the North, Indy in the South (why are they there again, exactly) and New England in the East. The wildcard teams are tough. I think 9-7 makes it. Let's give Denver one spot assuming they're still good enough to play .500 or so going forward. The Ravens stink. So do the Jags (but if they uglied their way to 11-5 I wouldn't be surprised). The Jets have to win two big swing games at Minnesota and this week at Cleveland to have a chance at 10-6. I seriously don't like any other team. So, you fill in the blanks there while I get some Jersey Taylor Ham to go on the side of this cheese omelette.
From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: October 26, 2006 1:01:42 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: life and how to live it
Your first paragraph hits home with me, and I agree. What we do is about analyzing the current landscape and the oncoming stories, not trying to make sure we stubbornly back up what we said in May or July or September. And at times a short memory helps if it enables us to be more open-minded to what we see in front of us now. Not that you want to over-value the latest piece of film or data, but you get the point.
Meandering into actual points . . . you mention the Chiefs and it's funny how they're showing signs of having a legitimate defense this year. The Steeler game was an aberration. I think they'd have a good shot at a full-load Seattle this week, but with all the injuries the Seahawks have, this game doesn't make my programming mix at 1 p.m.. Seneca Wallace gets scalped at Arrowhead.
I'm skeptical on this Broncos defense - it's a good unit, a smart unit, a fast unit, but I think the Colts can find the gaps. And who have the Broncos stopped, anyway? Marc Bulger before he picked up the offense? The Patriots before Tom Brady met all of his receivers? Steve McNair and Andrew Lloyd Walter and Charlie Frye? Damon Huard? Please. Invesco isn't an easy place for visitors but it's not the old place, either. If Manning leads the Colts down the field to open the game, watch it turn into the Colorado State Library. (The other edge to Denver is the altitude - you'll see a lot of teams sucking wind in the fourth quarter. This will give us a good sense of where Indy's conditioning is at).
I know you think third-down stats are overrated but I almost fell out of my chair when I saw Manning's 130.7 rating on third down this year. That's ridiculous, and it's the sort of thing that rips the heart of a defense. Let's also not forget that the last two times Manning played the Broncos in games that mattered for both teams, the Colts rolled up 90 points. Indy is getting their 24-plus, and good luck asking Jake Plummer to keep up. (When does Jay Cutler take over, Week 10? I can't see Plummer surviving if the Broncos happen to lose to Indy and at Pittsburgh. The Oakland game would be a perfect San Diego tune-up for Cutler. I think I've talked myself into this happening.)
I have mixed feelings about the Vikings - they do so many smart things and they certainly don't beat themselves, but will Brad Johnson make enough downfield connections against good secondaries (the Seahawks and Redskins don't count)? Playing not to give the game away only works against so many teams - better clubs you have to get chunks against. That said, the schedule falls into place nicely for the Vikes - if they can find a way to take down New England this week, they could be looking at a seven-game winning streak before they head to Chicago (thanks, AFC East and NFC West). Minnesota might not have legs at all come January, but it's hard to plug-in playoff slots and not give them a bid right now.
The most fascinating "what-could-have-been" Delhomme angle to me was watching New Orleans stubbornly refuse to play him in December of 2002, despite the fact that Aaron Brooks had no shoulder left at the end of the season. Brooks missed 11 passes in a row to finish the Week 16 loss at Cincinnati (back when the Bengals couldn't stop anyone), but Jim Haslett stuck by his man and Brooks got the Week 17 call against Carolina. You how how it ends: Brooks stinks the joint out (12-for-31, 145 yards, two picks), the Saints score six crummy points, and Delhomme bolts at the end of the year.
I'm enjoying Pennington's renaissance, a clear reminder to everyone that brains go a long way at that position. How many QBs diagnose a defense pre-snap better than Pennington? Peyton Manning is the valedictorian of the league, no one would question that, but you can argue a lot of guys for the No. 2 chair. Brady, sure. Hasselbeck, no doubt. Trent Green doesn't make 10 bad decisions in a calendar year. But Pennington is right there with those guys.
Miami can't fire Nick Saban, too much long-term investment there. But I'd love to see their notes from the Drew Brees examination. If Brees doens't fail that physical - okay, if the Dolphins find a way to pass him, as they could have - we could be talking about a completely different season. The Pittsburgh game was winnable. The Houston game was winnable. The New England and New York games were winnable, too. I hadn't seen the defense play a stinker until last week.
I don't think there's anything new to say on Vick. Look at the final 10 games on the schedule and I see six defenses that could make him look silly. Okay, no one saw the explosion against Pittsburgh coming, though the Steelers were missing some key personnel and there's a lot to be said for a QB getting his confidence early. I'm still not ready to call Atlanta a playoff team; they can't get enough big plays in the pass game where you need them ( 6.2 YPA), and for all the home runs they hit on the ground, the drive-sustaining work inside isn't always there. If Vick could find a way to use his mobility as a way to expand the vertical passing game, every defensive coordinator in the league would piss his pants initially. But it's still the same scattershot left arm throwing the ball, the same dated CPU making the decisions. The Falcons are a carnival and a unique team and a fun day at the races, but there's too many fundamental flaws for anyone to be worried about this team for extended games into January.
Tomlinson isn't the same inside guy these days, perhaps the price he paid for all those years in Martyball. I give the Chargers credit for at least recognizing this and moving the puzzle pieces around. Unfortunately for the Bolts it doesn't look like there's a way for them to steer Merriman's suspension away from the Cincinnati and Denver trips coming in November. That could be the difference between a Final Four trip versus just one game in January (it also gives the Broncos extra wiggle room in the division).
Some of the divisions look over already - Denny Green says I can crown the Colts, Bears, Patriots and Giants right now (Philadelphia's poison-pill schedule takes them down the last six weeks). The Rams and Seahawks will settle the NFC West when they play in Week 10. The Chargers will need to sweet Denver and I can't see it. Everyone's flawed in the AFC North so three teams are still in it - I can't see Baltimore holding up, but Cincinnati and Pittsburgh need to get healthy - and I'm too stubborn to write off the Panthers, even with last week's giveaway.
Okay, give me the pen. Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Broncos. The defense pushes the Chargers to January, while the schedule (and Chad's head) sparks the Jets. Pittsburgh makes a crazy late rally but comes up short.
The NFC suddenly looks clear to me. Bears, Giants, Panthers, with the Vikings and Saints getting the wild-card slots (stay out of Philly in late December, trust me). Unless Hasselbeck heals miraculously quick, the Rams win the rematch and the division. No one's beating Chicago in January, but fortunately for Peyton he doesn't have to. Colts 30, Bears 20.
From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 26, 2006 3:15:00 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: life and how to live it
I thought the Chiefs defense took a step backwards last week, but I think you like Rivers right now more than I do. Maybe his performance in Arrowhead is a sign that you're right and I'm wrong about how he stacks up presently.
Imagine how much more dangerous the Colts would be if they threw more on first and second down. 103 running plays this year on first down, 75 passes. And they average just 3.8 per carry on those rushes vs. a sick 9.41 on pass plays. And it's not like they've been blowing teams early, so I feel no need to go to second-level, first-half splits to see if there's a large run-out-the-clock factor here. I think the Colts will be very aroused on Sunday and be looking to stick it in Denver's ear after hearing all week about their record-setting pace in preventing TDs (at least post-1934 Detroit Lions).
I agree with your QB take. Decision-making pre-snap and clear-headedness to execute your plan post-snap is the most important thing about playing QB. It amazes me that teams have college prospects at the position do 200-pound bench presses and run 40-yard dashes but haven't explored any way to measure these finer cognitive skills. The Wonderlic doesn't come close to cutting it.
The Dolphins can't and won't fire Saban, agreed. But it's hard to come up with a second-year coach who's had a worse season relative to expectations and not even had to endure the whiff of a rumor of a firing. Saban is skating through life (other than the football part).
I think it's really silly that you can have a policy for steroids and player can wiggle out of it for weeks through the appeal process. Those appeals should be held in days, not weeks. Think of how the Rams get screwed relative to Seattle, which will probably get to play the Chargers without Merriman.
The Jets in the playoffs? That would be a shocker, but I can see it. They have go chalk and figure out a way to win three of these four: at Cleveland, at Green Bay, at Miami at Minny. To me, objectively, it's asking a little too much from a defense that is at least a draft away from being mediocre in the scheme Mangini wants to run.
The Saints would be a nice story, obviously. I'm rooting for them. But they're a lot like the Jets in that they have a nice QB and offense but, quite possibly, a shaky defense.
I don't want to think about the Super Bowl because it depresses me. That means the glorious NFL season is over. There's no longer increment of time than the period between meaningful kickoffs. And no shorter one that between Week 1 and Week 17 of the NFL season. Fortunately, more than half of it still awaits. |
