New
Breakfast Served on Thursdays
"The Breakfast
Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends
Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high
in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments.
But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist
are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps
of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan.
They've been tabling together since 2002."
Go Figure Breakfast
 From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 10, 2006 6:38:50 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Week 6 Breakfast
You told me backstage that all the favorites won. I wonder how often that happens. I'll try to look it up while waiting for your response.
Of course, as you also noted, the biggest favorite came damn close to losing. So, go figure.
Go figure seems to be the theme of the NFL at this point. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are a mess. The Bears have an explosive passing game. Donovan McNabb is taking his game to heights never before seen not just by him, but by anyone at this point and doing so without Terrell Owens or even his leftover receivers. The Saints and Rams are 4-1 while the Super Bowl bound Dolphins (according to SI, at least) flounder (or should we just call Miami the "Flounders" now). The Giants and Redskins reverse course completely in one week, against one another. The Broncos and Chiefs win now with defense. Peyton Manning has turned into a dink and dunker. Most of the players we thought were going to dominate don't.
Of course, we love every minute of it. If we knew what was going to happen, it wouldn't be so much fun to watch things unfold. But there are impostors in our midst and some solid teams are hiding from sight. Let's see what secrets we can dig up. What truths we can reveal. Week 6 Breakfast is served.
 From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: October 11, 2006 1:55:18 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: hell in a handbasket
I thought it was a pretty blase week, to be honest with you. The Monday nighter was so dreadfully boring Kit and I wound up watching about half of Ocean's 12. You want a guy who can outscheme any coordinator, give Danny Ocean a call.
By default the Titans-Colts game becomes the most interesting one. The Colts are a flawed but fascinating team right now. Let the simpletons blather on about the importance of stopping the run, but I think we can all agree that the Colts have a problem there. Five-point-two a carry! Corey Simon's done as their space filler and safety Bob Sanders is out, I guess that's part of the problem, though for years this defense has sat back in its two-deep shell and said "go ahead, run on us." Dungy's philosophy has always been about daring teams to put together 15-play scoring drives.
Ironically, that's exactly what teams are doing to the Colts - back up the safeties, loosen up at the corner, and pray they run the ball. It took a half for the Colts to figure it out and start attacking with shorter passes in the right areas. Here's where they miss a guy like Stokley the most, a dangerous run-after-catch guy in the slot. (And the Colts don't play this week, of course, so I'm wasting my key theme on a team headed for a bye week. It's going to be a blase table from here, Jersey. Bring your own spice rack.)
I don't know if there's a major problem in Ben Roethlisberger's head but I know one thing - show me a quarterback with no confidence and I'll show you a stiff. It doesn't help that Hines Ward isn't anywhere near 100 percent, and Cedrick Wilson certainly doesn't scare anyone. The schedule lets up a slight bit but not enough to make a difference. No January football in Pittsburgh this year - maybe it's payback for the perfect storm of happy accidents in last year's playoffs.
Can the Bears make a run at 16 wins? You look at their schedule and I don't see a lot of trap games. Minnesota is the only home test, give that one to the Bears. Road trips to New Jersey (twice), New England, St. Louis. I can't see them losing at Arizona this week. Looks like 14-2 to me. The under-reported story with this team is how good the entire defense is. The easy write is to praise Brian Urlacher and Lovie Smith to the hilt, but this unit is ridiculous deep, fast, and physical - and actually better than last year's group, as frightening as that is to say.
Andy Reid isn't getting enough credit for Donovan McNabb's MVP season (and through five weeks there's no debating the hardware). The Eagles have had a different top receiver for all five games. Reid's game plans are a thing of beauty. I still wonder what will become of the Eagles when they play all of their division road games in December (how cruel), but by that time they might be looking at a 2-3 game lead on the other clubs. I also think this is an offense that could go into Chicago in January and do something - maybe.
I don't have much to say on TO and the Cowboys except this - I'm sick of Joe Buck playing Javert with Owens and waiting to pounce on anything No. 81 does. It's so tired. Owens did his share of yapping on the sideline last week, sure, but remember he plays receiver - the diva position. He's not the only guy in the league venting between possessions. It's pretty much a non-story to me. (Enjoy your get-well week with the Texans, Dallas.)
How do we logically explain what the Redskins and Jaguars did the last two weeks? NFL variance? Good matchups, bad matchups? Biorhythms? A home and road thing? Seeing the Redskins gash the Jags and then crash against the Giants, that shocked me. As for Jacksonville, I'm starting to think their home field edge for the first two months of the year is as extreme as there is.
Speed round: How does anyone ever tackle Maurice Jones-Drew 1-on-1? . . . Every week the Pats play at home, I think they're remaking Woodstock. How can the league let them get away with that field? . . . Does Seattle expose the Rams this week, or is St. Louis legit? I don't want to hear about Marc Bulger not throwing picks - the Packers dropped a bushel of them last week . . . The scoreboard doesn't show it but Joey Harrington was an improvement over Daunte Culpepper. Granted, Willie Beamon or Footsteps Falco would be an improvement over Culpepper at this point.
From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 11, 2006 4:52:40 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: hell in a handbasket
Hey, the Cowboys went to hell in a Hank Baskett last week! Ba dum, cha!
I know that this is silly and it's not like I drafted Drew (in the real, NFL sense), but I sort of see myself as John Hammond to his Bruce Springsteen. I have the irrational sense that I "discovered" him. It's stupid, I fully admit. But I also irrationally punish myself for the multitude of things I get wrong every summer.
I wish I had as much fun wathing Ocean's 12 as they seemed to be having making it. That was the case with Ocean's 11. But Matt Damon and Brad Pitt formed a relationship there that helped get "The Departed" made. That's not up there with "Goodfellas," but it's damn close.
Okay, enough with the movies. But I'm going to take a little detour here in explaining my take on Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Roethlisberger said last week that he's not able to think the same on the field. "The doctor said nothing is wrong with my brain and it seems like I'm having brain farts out there."
The article linked above is an outstanding piece of journalism. Spurred on by that, this week I talked to a sports psychologist about it and he said that doctors are the worst people to diagnose the aftereffects of this kind of injury. Plus, doctors rarely, if ever refer someone like Roethlisberger to a neuropsychologist, who would be better able to diagnose the cause and a treatment for what Roethlisberger at least thinks is hurting his game (and he should know, right?).
I learned that in some rare but documented cases, people have suffered closed head trauma like Roethlisberger, gotten a clean bill of health from doctors and were sent home only to become convinced that their entire family has been replaced by identical impostors. It's called Capgras syndrome. These people feel the same way about anyone they've ever had an emotional attachment to. Because of this condition, we've learned that humans identify the person physically and emotionally. If the brain doesn't feel the emotional attachment, it can only conclude that the person they see isn't who they think it is. Now, this is a long way to making a point. But it's an important one. What made Roethlisberger a championship QB? Is that something that science can currently measure? Without the schematic of an NFL QB's brain (and we'll assume they share common characteristics), how can doctors dismiss Roethlisberger's concerns?
The Colts do have to tighten up the run defense a little. Alternatively, they can open up the passing game and stop teams from running. Option "B" is easier when you have Peyton Manning. In 2004, the Colts were 30th in yards per carry allowed. That stat always correlates poorly to winning. In fact, right now, in net Yards Per Carry, the top 10 teams are 23-22, the bottom 10, 23-24. Nothing illustrates the immateriality of controlling the line of scrimmage more than that. I didn't like what Manning said after the Jets game about running and throwing underneath versus the Cover 2. Al Davis is a joke now, but he was really sharp a generation ago when he said, "We don't take what the defense gives us, we take what we want."
I swear, I wanted to climb through the TV and pop Joe Buck in the mouth for his bullying of Terrell Owens. The Fox cameras were following him around like the paparazzi. You want guys yelling and screaming when things go screwy on the field. That's called being a competitor when we like the guy. When we don't, we vilify.
Now, after blasting the running game, I'm going to say something that will strike some as hypocrisy. The Eagles have got to find a way to keep the ball and the clock moving more consistently in the second-half of these games. It's already cost them one easy win (vs. the Giants). It will cost them some more against good teams, especially in the playoffs. In the NFL, again (and this is for the reader, not you), you have to throw the ball early to beat the opponent and run it late to beat the clock. The Eagles are 27th in runs plus completions gained minus those allowed, unbelievably bad for a winning team.
I actually feel like I'm piling on Daunte now, so I won't say anything about him. But it's important to note the importance of sacks. Many think they're media hype. But only TDs and picks are more important events during a game. They very often lead to punts (if you're lucky). And, most importantly, they destroy your ability to throw downfield. Want to know the key to the Chicago passing game? Grossman is sacked once every 32 attempts (best rate in the league).
I'm curious about your take on the Chargers and Philip Rivers.
From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: October 12, 2006 9:06:33 AM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: we can't train a cat that quickly
I don't know what to really add on Roethlisberger - I'm not a neurologist and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. His schedule hasn't been easy. Ward's obviously hurt and Antwaan Randle El is gone. But mostly I've seen a quarterback that's tentative and lacking in confidence, I guess. I'm a believer in Ken Whisenhunt and Bill Cowher, so maybe they can put him back together in time to save the season.
I hear you on the Eagles running game, but I'm not sure what they can really do. I don't see the explosion with Correll Buckhalter anymore. I hope they've finally run out of calls to Dorsey Levens.
I'm always game to talk sacks - no one likes the sack more than I do. Let's talk about the Sack Pack, the Sack Exchange, the Monster Blitz, I'm engaged. It's such a destructive play - the defense gets a hit on the QB, gains field position, often times gets a turnover. Of course with all the creative pass-rush schemes we're seeing nowadays, the offensive counter is pretty boring. What happened to all the tight end production of the last few years? Those guys are in blocking now.
The Chargers finally took the training wheels off Philip Rivers, and while it might have been a week too late (the way San Diego lost in Baltimore was embarrassing), it's worth it down the road. I like this defense but they're not going to win a Super Bowl the way Baltimore did. Rivers was the fourth pick in the draft for crying out loud - two years ago. Let him make throws, make mistakes, let him *develop* and maybe you have a chance to go deep in the playoffs. But if you coddle him for four months just asking him not to lose the game, the upside for the playoffs is flushed.
Oh, I'm that one guy who *doesn't* prefer the powder blues to their regular dark blue uniforms. Every time I see the powder blues come out I think "Guest Villain on Batman."
Ocean's 12 took a while but it grew on me. It's a few steps down from 11, though. I better wrap this now - Ted Nugent's on the phone and he wants his shirt back.
From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 12, 2006 11:01:13 AM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: we can't train a cat that quickly
I'm rooting for Roethlisberger. One of the things a doctor should do is look at QBs who've experienced severe concussions and tried to come back. Did performance appreciably decline for any of them? Many? The problem with this, though, is that these QBs who suffered severe concussions were wearing helmets, so Roethlisberger's was likely far worse.
The other counter to the sack is that three-step drop. Phil Simms says that defenses have got the timing of that play down and that's why you see so many passes tipped at the line. Of course, once we get it in our head to look for tipped passes, we're beat because every tipped pass will confirm our suspicion and we'll just ignore all the passes not tipped on three-step drops. I wish we had league-wide data, but they always make it tough for us. Your tipped-pass poster boy, Chris Simms, had about three times more passes (percentage) tipped this year than last before getting hurt (about seven percent of attempts). Tom Brady already has more tipped passes this year (total) than all of last. So has Peyton Manning. Hmm.... Not quite scientific, but maybe Simms is right.
I like the nostalgia of the old Chargers unis, but they are girly, let's admit. Powder blue? That's okay for guys to wear up until age 18 months and then only to keep their moms happy.
What should we all be watching this week? I want to cross either the Falcons or Giants off my list of Super Bowl contenders. Seattle-St. Louis fascinates me. I have a bad feeling about the Seahawks but I'm suspicious that it's rooted in the stupid stat about Super Bowl losing teams struggling the next year rather than on substantive on-field events. Carolina-Baltimore is going to bore us to tears. Have the Bengals tightened up the protection for Carson Palmer (fifth-most sacked QB on a percentage of passes)? New Orleans can really make a statement if they can beat the Eagles, who may be in for a letdown. And, of course, last call for Pittsburgh for 2006 (and the Chiefs are suddenly not a team you want to see when you're trying to revive your passing offense). |
