"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Meaty, Beaty, Big and Bouncy Breakfast

Don't forget to check out our Special Baseball Postseason Breakfast

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 3, 2006 8:44:49 AM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Week Four Breakfast

All hail the Chicago Bears!

I'm now about 80 percent certain that Rex Grossman is for real. The Bears have seemingly gone from no passing game at all to one of the best ones in football. All the other pieces remain in place. But, as the Colts showed last year, maybe you don't want to be the best team after Week 4.

When does Nick Saban start to get some heat for the Dolphins doldrums? Actually, can we just rename Miami the Doldrums? I like it.

Has that great Redskins staff figured it out? Was Eric Mangini influenced by that "go for it" UC Berkeley study when he opted against the field goal vs. the Colts? If you saw the first 55 minutes of the last two Ravens game, wouldn't you guess they were 0-4 and not 4-0? Is Philip Rivers progressing enough to make the Chargers a force in the AFC? Why are we all always surprised when the Patriots smack a seemingly superior foe around on the road? Should anyone be taking the Saints and Rams seriously? Has Herm righted the ship in KC? How interested are you in following Vince Young and Matt Leinart for the rest of 2006? Should we all just forget the T.O. circus last week like he and 2-1 Dallas seemingly have or is he a ticking time bomb to both himself and his employers?

That's a lot to put on the Table. But most of the league has passed the quarter turn. So let's cover as much as we can. Week Four Breakfast is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: October 4, 2006 8:07:58 AM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: it's the singer, not the song

I wasn't overly impressed with the Bears through three weeks (no parade for throwing over the Lions and Packers), but I have to re-evaluate now. That's a solid Seattle team they just undressed on National TV. Everyone knew this was a great Chicago defense (10 TD passes allowed over 20 regular-season games), but I had no idea the passing game was ready to explode. Rex, how do I make it up to you?

One notable drop off from this year's team is the running game - the Bears are still running it 30 or more times a game, but last year they made 4.3 a carry and this year it's stuck at 3.0. Maybe this doesn't matter all that much - staying balanced on offense is almost as effective as actually making the ground game work - but we have to assume teams will adjust and start defending the Bears differently. (Random question: Why is Bernard Berrian wide open on so many plays? Is it the design? The opponents? Is he just faster than everyone else? Short cuts are great, but we need to storm the NFL Films offices in Jersey and get some coaching tape.)

The problem in Miami is obviously the offense, so assuming Nick Saban is the guy who pushed hardest for Daunte Culpepper and Mike Mularkey, it's on him. (Given the control Saban has, this is a logical conclusion.) I have nothing BT- original to add here - we've documented Culpepper's problems all season. His pocket awareness is glaringly bad - you can't blame him for all the sacks and breakdowns you see from this offense, but most of it is his fault. Chris Chambers is basically useless in this offense. At this point Joey Harrington's hasty incompletions would almost be an upgrade over the Culpepper carnival - you save field position that way, bro'.

Maybe if they switch Chambers to No. 89 everything will be fixed. Isn't that what's bailed out the Panthers and Redskins, getting their outside playmaker on the field and involved? Even the Jets are down with this, with Jerricho Cotchery turning into a dynamite second option.

Clinton Portis really impressed me with his physicality against the Jaguars. Sometimes rushing numbers can be misleading, built off one play, but he gutted these guys with a consistent flurry of five and ten and 12 yards runs down their throat. Maybe if Joe Gibbs had let Portis play in Week 2, Washington would have hung around in Dallas.

Al Saunders has been very smart with his last two game plans, maximizing what Santana Moss can do and what Mark Brunell can't do. That said, the Redskins ended last week's game with the best throw I've seen Brunell make in five years. If I see more of that from Brunell, I'll toss him a half-hearted apology.

Kurt Warner wanted to throw an apology to the Arizona fans, but it was picked off and taken back for six. Like the Culpepper situation, Warner isn't getting much help from his line but let's not miss the point here - he's making a bad line look even worse with his slow decision making. A lot of people think the line makes the QB, but in many instances it's the other way around (Manning and Brady are two prime examples). At this point it's time to get the Matt Leinart learning curve going, even as I hate his early schedule (a vastly-improved Chiefs defense this week, then the Bears next week).

I was mildly surprised by the Patriots-Bengals game, but nothing past that. We've seen New England circle the wagons plenty of times. The Bengals were a little overrated through three weeks, and they've clearly got issues with their pass blocking (Palmer's sacks deserve a different heading than the Culpepper-Warner ones) and off-the-field mishaps. At what point do we stitch "Chico's Bail Bonds" on the back of the jerseys?

It will be interesting to see how the Bengals respond after their bye week, and that segues into a theme I've always wanted us to discuss here. Are teams better prepared after a bye week, or is that just a myth? What do you expect as we welcome the Steelers, Giants and Buccaneers back to action? Do some coaches get more out of the bye week? Mike Holmgren gave his club a week off right after their 37-6 Mauling in the Midway - is that what you would have done?

I don't think Mangini had a study or a deep strategy in mind when he dialed up that fourth-down play - it probably came down to the idea that you need 7s to keep up with the Colts. If the Jets were playing the Browns or the Bills or the Dolphins, I bet they take the three. Of course we'll never know - Mangini is another Bartleby when it comes to answering questions. I know you were at the Meadowlands last week, where you able to steal any secrets?

The less we talk about the Ravens, the better. I'm as unimpressed as you; they remind me of the golfer who sucks for 17 holes, then squares up with a double-or-nothing birdie on the last. I think the underrated Broncos kick the tar out of them Monday.

The Saints loss at Carolina may have been their most impressive game yet. You look at the defense on paper and walk away unimpressed, but this unit gave the Panthers and Falcons fits the last two weeks. I haven't taken the short cut to New Orleans yet but it's on the to-do list (MLB playoffs wrecked my Tuesday plan, too).

The Chiefs can finally stop teams this year, for once (one TD allowed to the Bengals, Broncos and Niners). The should hang around in the AFC West - the Chargers can't run away from anyone with their intern at QB, and as much as I respect Shanahan, the Broncos still have some holes in the boat. Do the Raiders have any chance at winning a division game?

Speed Round: I still think the Rams are flimsy and I'll be surprised if they win more than 7-8 games . . . The Steelers get another stand-alone game! When is this going to stop? NBC is the stop this time, and we know that ESPN really stands for "Eternal Steelers Programming Network." . . . Any NFL GMs want a mulligan on Laurence Maroney? Wow . . . The New Orleans story was heart-warming a week ago, but I'm still worried this city will lose its team in the near future . . . Sounds like Bud Adams is too cheap to fire Jeff Fisher. Some weird sound bytes coming out of Nashville these days . . . I wonder if Edge would give most of the cash back if he could return to the horseshoes. Same question for you, David Givens.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 4, 2006 9:35:53 AM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: it's the singer, not the song

The Bears are second in yard per pass attempt (YPA), almost doubling last year's total. They lead the NFL in percentage of passing yards in the air, so this is the farthest thing in football from a dump-off, screen game. This is downfield gashing. Running game? We don't need no stinkin' running game!

Seriously, I just did a piece on all the best and worst teams at scoring and preventing points. They all have one thing in common and only one thing: YPA. The good teams dominate relative to the league average, the bad teams fall ridiculously short of the mark. The Chiefs, as you mentioned, have turned around their defense and the schedule has been at least mediocre if not tough. But they're average in yards per carry allowed. The Bears defense is actually below average, allowing over four yards per carry. Chicago, we agree, is the best team in football and they are 27th in yards per carry gained and 19th in yards per carry allowed. I know I'm preaching to the converted here, but not only do most announcers and writers not know what makes good and bad teams what they are, but the teams themselves, I'm convinced, don't know.

Miami is a YPA laggard, which is ridiculous when they've played the Titans and Texans the past two weeks. The Dolphins are the worst team in the AFC East right now, easy. After this week (at New England), they'll be 1-4. So, cancel the Super Bowl reservations, Miami, and start scouting on Saturdays in preparation for your Top 10 pick.

Portis' shoulder passed the test. That looked like the Chiefs offense at its best on Sunday. The holes were huge. The design in the passing game brilliant in challenging every level of the defense. Brunell made the throws, but I can't discount more than a year of struggling to complete 11-to-20 yard passes.

I was rooting for Warner and Green and the Cardinals. I'm sick of Arizona losing. I thought this could be the year. I was even willing to discount Edgerrin James' age and workload and hope that the receivers would keep front sevens passive in the box. But it's all gone bust, mostly because the offensive line can't block. Denny Green called them all out yesterday. But if you stink, you stink.

Carson Palmer needs a bye week. He's not close to 2005 form and wasn't even two weeks ago when he tossed those four TD passes. The bad signs were there.

The Steelers and Giants are in do or die situations. The Steelers will be fine if Ben Roethlisberger has shaken off the rust, which was predictable given his summer. The Chargers are begging to lose because they're content with a low-scoring struggle. I don't understand why Rivers (no passes in the second half until they lost the lead) is being so protected. This is his third year, not his first.

You know that Mangini wasn't thinking about the UC Berkeley study because he wasn't concerned about the pick costing him the field position. Chad clearly wasn't instructed to throw the ball away if nothing was there (that certainly would have pleased the generally thick-headed crowd). Having a team start on its own two yard line is worth about a field goal. In other words, generally, when an offense has the ball on its own three, the defense is likely to be the next team to score.

Do you know the Raiders sack-adjusted YPA is 3.01? They're averaging 4.68 per carry. Can you have the worst passing game ever with Randy Moss at WR? Of course, this isn't really Moss anymore. The skills may have faded but the desire has clearly disappeared. He said he's not thinking about the team because no one else is. He says Oakland "doesn't let leaders be leaders." He can't possibly think he's a leader, can he?

Maybe Martz has the Lions offense in gear, which means we could discount the Rams defensive showing last week somewhat. I believe in the St. Louis offense. I think they smack the Packers in Green Bay this week and that makes them 4-1, so....

I hear you on Maroney but you don't worry about running backs in the draft because you can get a guy like Jerious Norwood in the third round. Norwood excites me almost as much as Maroney. And I like DeAngelo Williams and Joseph Addai, too. This was a great class of rookie runners.

I'm really rooting for Young. Leinart, not so much. Leinart seems like he has a sense of entitlement. And his schedule is killer. The Chiefs and Bears are going to eat him up. With his confidence shaken and the team reeling after that, who knows how he'll progress in '06. Young doesn't have the expectations and can just play.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: October 5, 2006 7:28:45 AM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: substitute (for another guy)

There's no arguing that the Bears have reinvented that offense. Berrian's role can't be understated - you throw a deep threat on the outside and it's amazing how much it scares the opposing secondary and dictates coverage. Marcus Trufant was giving so much cushion last week, he almost wasn't in the stadium.

We've said a lot about the Dolphins and I'm in agreement with you - it's a team in trouble. But I see a closer game this week then a lot of people do, and the 10 points look too generous. It's Psych Handicapping 101 - New England off the ultimate high game (a win at Cincinnati), Miami off the ultimate low game (a loss to the scrubby Texans). Saban's teams always get better as the season goes along. Miami's front seven is still playing pretty well, and New England's vertical passing game still doesn't scare anyone. This game is decided by a touchdown or less and will be undecided entering the fourth quarter.

The difference between the Saunders Chiefs and the today Redskins is that the old Kansas City teams never had someone like Moss on the outside. I'm not a Redskin fan in the slightest but I get excited every time Moss touches the ball. If you catch him in stride - and Brunell should be able to do that on the shorter routes - any play has a chance to go the distance. The dirty little secret with the Redskins: Gregg Williams' defense isn't that good.

We've seen this Warner story before - he blew his gig in New York by making too many negative plays, forcing the Giants to go to Eli Manning earlier than they wanted to. The Cardinals are another team that does questionable things with its design - why take Anquan Boldin off the field in the red zone? Listen to any Denny Green interview for 90 seconds and you'll be frustrated - he's for so many of the old-school concepts that we're fighting against. I'd like to see Leinart do well, but unless his wideouts carry him the next two weeks, it could get ugly against the retooled Chiefs and the nasty Bears. If Leinart's confidence isn't completely crushed after that, we'll see some pretty results in the second half.

As for Leinart's college mentor, no worries - Palmer will be fine. Palmer's quotes after the Pittsburgh win gave me chills - he knew he didn't really play that well, acknowledging that his receivers bailed him out. He's got the perfect emotional stability for a quarterback - never gets too high or too low. The QBs who bolt to the end zone after a score, that's not the personality you want running your team. Give the Bengals some time to lick their wounds on the offensive line and they'll come back refreshed and ready to rock (they better, because the next two months of the schedule is absolutely hellish.) It would be nice to see Chris Henry keep his mind focused on football, but if it hasn't happened yet with everything that's at stake, I'm not holding my breath.

Giants fans must hate the bye week, as New York is 1-9 in the post-bye game over the last decade. Okay, that probably means next-to-nothing given how quickly personnel changes in this league, but still this is a puzzling team. If Tom Coughlin is such a demanding and attention-to-detail coach, why does his team make so many sloppy, preventable mistakes? I want to give the Giants the check mark for this week's desperation game with Washington, but part of me feels that I've fallen for the siren song of this offense.

The Raiders should apply to the Pac-10, maybe they can rally and slip into a bowl game. What a mess they are. Randy Moss doesn't care. LaMont Jordan has thrown his team under the bus a few times. Art Shell was unemployed for a good reason all those years. I can't see how they win more than three games, and that's generous. As for their YPC, I'm not impressed - Jordan and Justin Fargas both broke off one long run against the pedestrian Browns, but the other 68 carries check in at 3.13 for the year. Slap the NC-17 rating on all tapes coming from Oakland.

The Rams should beat the Packers, fine. Then the big kids get out of school: Seattle (rested), bye, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Seattle, at Carolina. If Marc Bulger is still standing at the end of those five games, okay, we'll talk. But this still looks like a 7-9 team to me.

With all due respect to the exciting Norwood, he shouldn't be compared to Maroney, even loosely. Norwood is a home-run threat, a speedy guy who may never be someone you can constantly pound inside the tackles 25 times a game. Maroney has the full package, power, speed, a little attitude mixed in. Wait until Maroney gets the ball to himself next year - Dillon's contract pretty much mandates a cut. (All that said, your point about mining for gold at the RB position is right on the money. But I can't fault the Patriots for using a first-round pick on this guy.)

Any feel for what the Packers are going to do with their Favre/Rodgers mess? Getting Favre to leave is like getting Norm out of Cheers after last call. The Packers need to evaluate their kid, but how do you sit down someone who owns the city?

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: October 5, 2006 11:17:30 AM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: substitute (for another guy)

Berrian has a little Wesley Walker (as opposed to Welker) in him and that's a high compliment in my book.

Saban's NFL team got better as the season went along last year because they played all the crappy teams and rotten QBs at the end (not that it helped their defense much, just ask Brooks Bollinger).

That's a good point about Santana Moss being unique in Saunders' Chiefs history. Of course, he had a lot of guys like him when he was the receivers coach on the Rams. Saunders did say before Moss was drafted that he was the best receiver in the class by far. Ironically, the Redskins took Rod Gardner (now on the Chiefs) right ahead of Moss. And we can just say "Moss" now when we talk about Santana. The other Moss needs to get the first name in case we confuse him with the better player.

Good coaches like Saunders adjust to their personnel. He had a difference maker at TE before in the passing game. Now the difference maker is at WR. I do think the Washington offense is rounding into shape, but Brunell likely will limit them (even off the two great games). They should be favored this week in New York, in my opinion. The Giants were falling apart at the seams last time we checked, but Vegas is discounting that completely. Why? I always figure Vegas knows more than me, but....

Boldin is coming out in goal-line packages. I hate that package. I hate running out of it. And why throw out of it if your receivers are off the field? Hey, NFL offensive coordinators: SPREAD THE FIELD IF YOU WANT TO RUN MORE EASILY!" Sorry to shout. I feel better.

I know this is a very obscure reference even by Breakfast Table standards, but Chris Henry is Ronny Dobbs as played by David Cross on the great "Mr. Show." Not the mediocre movie, but the one from the HBO series. Dobbs is a redkneck, wife-beating drunk who can't stop getting arrested "Cops" style. But he has a Broadway singing voice as beautiful as Henry's stride on those bombs.

Giants 1-9 after the bye? Well, their staff can't coach. Just ask Jeremy Shockey. (Or Tiki Barber.... Maybe it's not them, Tom Coughlin, but you.)

I own Jordan now after buying low before last week and feel compelled to defend him. He shouldn't be in the same sentence as Randy, bro'.

I didn't mean to fault the Pats for picking Maroney. Obviously, he's a great value. I'm just defending the though process for most of the teams that passed. Norwood doesn't look like a mere sprinter to me. He has run through the middle of the line twice this year, in the preseason and again last week, with such agility, speed and vision that unblocked defenders were unable to get a hand on him. It's tough to score touch football TDs like that in the NFL. But I'm not saying he's better than Maroney, who looks way more talented to me than Ronnie Brown, who was a No. 2 pick.

The Packers are stuck with Favre. I think he can be mediocre this year. If he makes the fans happy occasionally, it's not the worst thing in the world. I remember wanting to see Namath at the end when I was a kid and it made me happy when he showed any flash of former greatness. So, I'm trying to think like a fan here for once.

I think my Stat Power Index is starting to have some real meaning. Teams likely to be significantly better than most think right now: Chiefs, Falcons, Cowboys, Ravens. Teams likely to be significantly worse: Pittsburgh, Seattle, Denver, Giants. Maybe it's too soon, especially for the Steelers who are suffering through Roethlisberger's apparent rustiness (Steelers' fans better hope it's just that). These are the teams I'll be watching most closely this week (except for Seattle and Atlanta, who are off).

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: October 5, 2006 11:46:55 AM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: odds and sodds

I hate the jumbo package just as much as you do. Even as a kid I didn't understand it. Basically you're limited to three crummy plays and you're inviting more defenders into the point of attack. Yeah, that makes loads of sense. If you've got a dominant line, sure, you can get away with it. But most teams don't and I'm never surprised when the defense dominates those spots. It's hard to be practical when macho gets in the way.

If I had to sum up pro coaching in one word, "adjustment" is the call. Halftime adjustments, in-season adjustments, adjusting to your personnel. I don't think it's a coincidence that the same coaches seem to improve their teams as the year goes along, and certain coaches are near unbeatable when they see a team multiple times in a season (and yeah, your friend Billy Boy is one of them).

People don't think Atlanta is good right now? I beg to differ. The New Orleans loss was an ambush, but they throttled everyone else they've played. I've liked Jim Mora from Day 1 (though he lacks the spice of the old man). Michael Vick is frustrating to watch but for the most part they're making it work. And someday Matt Schaub is going to come in and open a nation's eyes.

This is last call for the Giants. If stuff is gonna happen, it's gotta happen now.