"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Week Three, with Best Wishes for T.O.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: September 25, 2006 1:56:44 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Week 3 Breakfast

(Editor's note: News of the reported suicide attempt of Terrell Owens broke after the Table was in progress and is dealt with in my final response. This, of course, in no way reflects its relative importance in the midst of mere football commentary and analysis.)

Weird goings on this week. One QB throws four TDs and another throws five and neither, I think, looks that good doing it. Lots of botched snaps and handoffs in big moments. Why did the Cardinals just take a couple knees and send Neil Rackers out for a chippie (for him)? The Ravens stole a game but they should be as embarrassed as the Giants should have been last week. Speaking of the G-men: Season on the Brink. Maybe the coach should spend some more time game-planning and less worrying about how the players dress and whether they're late by not being early enough to meetings.

How bad are the Texans? How did the Jets make history this week by being the first team EVER to allow a 300-yard passer and 150-yard rusher on the road and win? Do you get the sense that Belichick was so irritated by Mangini going to the Jets because he believed Mangini knew the master plan, as opposed to Nick Saban, whose Dolphins are such a Pretender that Jackson Browne should write their 2006 theme song. (The ship bearing their dreams has sailed clear out of sight.)

I think the Steelers championship defense is essentially over. Seahawks-Bears this week decides the NFC No. 1 seed. Circle Bengals at Colts on December 18th right now (although I think we both know who's winning that battle for the AFC No. 1 seed). Make a case for someone else in either conference because I hate the idea of things seeming so settled so soon. You see something you like that's not on the menu, order it up. Week 3 Breakfast is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: September 26, 2006 12:34:43 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: desperate quarterbacks

I'll give up Daunte Culpepper if you'll surrender Kurt Warner. Watch Culpepper play and you'll swear he switched to quarterback last week. No pocket awareness whatsoever. I'm starting to wonder if there's a problem with his peripheral vision. And you can't wait until receivers get open, son - you have to throw the ball far earlier than that. If Drew Brees had just passed his physical . . .

Speaking of Brees, the Saints are a nifty little story, sure, but there's an expiration date here. Their schedule is ridiculous. I'm still not sure they can stop a good offense (and forget anything I've said earlier this year, no offense piloted by Michael Vick will ever be that good). I love everything I've seen and heard from Sean Payton, but if he can get this team to 8-8, he's a genius.

Back to Warner, is Denny Green nuts for going to the bullpen this early? I'm as enamored with Matt Leinart as anyone, but it's still September and remember he reported late. Then again, three full years in the USC offense is a pretty good place to train. Add it all up and I wouldn't make the move right now - on the road against a ticked off Atlanta team looks like a bad fit. Warner's turnover parade is getting hard to take, though. (Anyone who drafted Warner without Leinart, by the way, deserves what they get. Which very soon is going to be nada. Is Warner better suited to clipboard or headset?)

The Houston offense isn't that bad but this defense is beyond brutal. Any group that can make Mark Brunell look like a long-lost Manning brother should be taken behind the barn and shot. Brunell's pretty stats don't really hold up in the short cut - most of the passes were dump-offs, and his receivers made a lot of the yards on their own. Mostly I was impressed by the Al Saunders game plan and how fresh Clinton Portis and the line looked - but it's going to be a slap back into reality when the Jaguars kick them around this week.

The Belichick-Mangini plot is basic Hatfield-McCoy stuff, simple as that. Keep the hype machine in place. Mangini's had a nice start but he's still a speculation play, not someone we can be sure of. Three games, Jersey. Beating Kerry Collins and J.P. Losman isn't reason enough for a parade, and there are problems with this New York front seven. (I won't stop you if you want to praise Kerry Rhodes to the heavens, though. Wow, what a missile he is.)

What did Nick Saban ever do to you? This is a guy who won nine games at Toledo, won nine games at Michigan State (trust me when I say that's hard to do), won a National Title at LSU, and won nine games with a Miami team that was laughably bad in 2004. Okay, they played a crummy endgame at Pittsburgh and they've stunk the last two weeks, fine. Someone needs to be accountable for the Culpepper decision, which looks like a grave error. But this is still a heck of a coach, and I guarantee you his team will get better as the year goes along (something you can always say about Belichick's teams, and Mike Shanahan's too).

Looks like you've got the Final Four all played out (I didn't see your Pro Bowl pick, though). You're don't want to put the AFC West in the mix? I think Denver is better than people realize - people jump up and down when Plummer has a bad game, but this looks like a very sound team everywhere else you look. I wish San Diego had kept Brees but they're frisky if the secondary and quarterback grow up quickly. Are the Patriots dead to you? Their first month looks eerily similar to how things started last year - ugly home loss to an underrated AFC West team, setting up a game they have no right to win on the road against a trendy AFC North club. Thing is, they won at Pittsburgh last year. Can they upset Cincinnati - heck, give them a game?

My heart is all for the Bengals but the head isn't there yet. The line is banged up and couldn't protect Palmer last week. Remember Pittsburgh was in control of this game until the fumbled punt midway through the fourth quarter (and wow, are Ben Roethlisberger's mechanics and decision-making all over the place right now). Cincinnati's wins over Kansas City and Cleveland shouldn't mean that much. We'll learn a lot about the Bengals over the next six weeks, when they play five good teams (the only free pass is against the shipwrecked Bucs, and even that's on the road).

I need a reality check in the NFC because I don't think anyone is clearly better than Carolina (and if not for John Kasay's bionic leg, they'd be 0-3). Seattle hasn't played a good 60 minutes yet and now their (overrated) back is hurt. Rex Grossman tried to lose at Minnesota but the Vikings handed the game back (Brad Childress hasn't gotten his endgame kit in the mail yet). It took just one bad night from the Falcons for everyone to question them again, justly so. Can we put Philadelphia in the mix or are they just fattening up on cupcakes? Maybe the Cowboys are ready to sneak up on everyone?

Speed Round: In an effort to screw up everything, ESPN's now botched the 3-minute highlight package Chris Berman runs at halftime. What's with the camera angles, stops and starts, player spotlighting? Terrible. My head still hurts . . . I'm not a doctor but how could the Bucs possibly clear Chris Simms to go back in that game Sunday? . . . Did I really used to like Rich Eisen? Can anyone document this? . . . Am I the only person who would take Anquan Boldin (real life or fantasy) over Larry Fitzgerald?

I'd like to say more and be more definitive, but I'm behind on the tape. Mix this goulash together, season to taste, get back to me.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: September 26, 2006 8:15:14 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: desperate quarterbacks

Warner was a situational pick for me in mostly a fantasy sense. It's been quite a while since I thought he was any good for real, way back in his Rams days. And then it was mostly the circumstances of his benching rather than defending his play.

But I see your point. Culpepper is terrible now. But I never thought he was that good to begin with. He was never a system, timing passer and those guys are prone to maddening inconsistency. I do think that Culpepper will recapture a good portion of his previous skills. Just not his stats because he doesn't have Randy Moss in his prime to open up the field and make coverages very predictable.

I have nothing against Saban, but success coaching in college means nothing in the pros. Lou Holtz, bro'. But there are a zillion others. Heck, Butch Davis had at least as good a resume coming into his first coaching job and that got him nowhere. The Dolphins, right now, are the worst team in the AFC East and it's not really close.

Denny Green should have looked in the mirror about not taking a couple of knees, especially with Warner's hand remaining so troublesome. Boot the chippy and go home with a cheap win. I guess he ranted to ESPN and now embarrassed them by forcing them to revise their scoop. I agree with your take on the wisdom of benching Warner in Atlanta. The expectations for Leinart when he does become the starter are too high. The most recent HOF QBs had a 70 QB rating and as many picks as TDs their rookie years, and three of them had experience in other professional leagues. Of course, this analysis makes the ridicoulous assumption that Leinart is a HOF QB (but only to illustrate the broader point).

You're right about Brunell. Only three of those 22 straight completions traveled more than five yards from scrimmage in the air and only one more than seven yards. That finesse screen game will be eaten alive by the Jaguars, who you need to beat downfield (where Brunell has a 14.9 QB rating this year).

I don't think the Jets are very good at all. But I do think they are well coached and prepared and generally avoiding the game-turning mistakes you see everywhere around the league. For a 35-year-old to show this right out of the gate is very surprising and a strong indicator that Mangini is likely to be at least a good coach. I honestly thought he'd be overwhelmed this year. Heck, Parcells was overwhelmed his first year as head coach and was nearly fired.

Denver did the right thing with Tatum Bell, who has to stay healthy. But Plummer is struggling in the pocket. That was never his strength, but good teams will take that boot action away and force him to make plays in the intermediate range of the field from inside the tackle box. Now, maybe the defense is good enough to hold teams in the low teens and it won't matter. But there's no dominating pass rusher there or even any dominating player at all in the front seven, so I think the defense is a bit illusory.

Patriots-Bengals is a huge game for New England if they have any thoughts at all about being a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. And they've always stepped up in these spots. The Bengals, as you noted, were not as impressive as the fantasy stats suggested. You also noted the major problems in pass protection. And I don't think Palmer has come close to recapturing his 2005 form (he should have had at least four picks along with the fumble vs. Pittsburgh).

I'm all over the Bears right now. Grossman bounced back. He got them the 10 points although seven were sort of a gift. He could have gone into a shell. He's making enough plays with that defense. This is a dangerous team that I think will have their way with Seattle, which is too one-dimensional without Alexander and not used to playing that pass-heavy game.

Philly is impressive and should be 3-0, but the Giants game is their signature statement right now (even given the flukey loss), but what's a win versus the Giants worth now on the open market? That Giants team is in total disarray. I seriously think Mangini is a better coach than Coughlin right now, but the media loves Coughlin because he's tough on the players and that provides good copy whether the team wins or loses.

As much as I hate venturing outside my basement on Sunday, I'm going to the Meadowlands on Sunday because I want to see Peyton Manning from the skybox view in the press box. But I'm going to miss so much. The Pats-Bengals is huge, but I should catch at least the second half there. But San Diego vs. Baltimore interests me because I don't really believe in either team (but especially not the Ravens). And I'm really wondering right now if the Saints are for real, at least in a playoff-team sense. Seattle-Chicago is the biggie, though. The NBC schedule, which looked so dreamy, has been rather flat, don't you think?

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: September 27, 2006 8:48:53 AM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: desperate quarterbacks

One final thought out the door with Culpepper - the missing mobility hurts him, but not in the obvious way. He's always given up a lot of sacks because of his pocket habits, but back when he could run it was an extra element defenses had to account for. Now, it's a moot point.

So it turns out Green has come to his senses and won't be throwing Leinart to the wolves in Atlanta, though Warner is just one botched snap away from hitting the sidelines, I suppose. (At least Brenda Warner won't be radio raging in the desert.) Again I'm very bullish on Leinart's future, but so long as the Cardinals think they have a chance at this year's playoffs, they need to run with Warner for a while. Hey, maybe that's just another month or a quarter or a week or a series, I don't know. Warner takes a lot of hits and obviously the turnovers can't be tolerated to this extreme. (Edgerrin just called in - where did those gaping holes go?)

My point with Saban was this - *four* different programs, *four* turnarounds that were essentially immediate. That's legit, I don't care what line of business you're in. Maybe the Cubs should interview him (knowing those guys, they're probably negotiating an extension with Dusty as we speak). Comparing Saban to Butch Davis is a joke, my friend - if you can't win at the University of Miami, you probably can't win anywhere, but 24-35 in Cleveland leaves me cold (his players were about to lynch him before the team mercifully pulled the plug). I don't think Davis will be going over his cell minutes fielding head coaching offers anytime soon.

And trust me, the Dolphins will show improvement as the year goes along. Saban will mandate it. I have no personal stake in this - I actually grew up hating the Dolphins, as a Patriots kid - but I fully believe in this man.

It was interesting to see Tatum Bell get 27 carries Sunday - his career high entering the night was just 17. Maybe Shanahan doesn't see him as a china doll anymore. And heck, when a guy hits as many home runs as Bell does ( 5.3 a carry lifetime), give him the ball. He's a capable pass catcher. His blitz pickup isn't bad. Maybe all this Mike Bell stuff was an emotional game between coach and pupil.

I probably like Denver's linebackers more than you. The depth of the defensive line looks okay. It's a very underrated secondary. They'll probably get double-digit wins again and make the playoffs, again. This might be the most underrated franchise - no, factory - of the cap era.

I give the Patriots a shot at Cincinnati, anyway. The Bengals still haven't played a complete game. If the pass blocking isn't fixed, Belichick will find a way to exploit it. And heck, for as lopsided as the Sunday night game felt, Denver still scored just 17 points. The big and obvious problem with New England is that it can't generate any big gains in the passing game, so unless Doug Gabriel reinvents himself as a legitimate NFL starter, Brady is going to be stuck trying to put together 15-play drives. It's hard to keep doing that in today's game. Call it 27-23 Cincinnati, but I wouldn't be shocked if New England stole it.

I'm very curious to see what Grossman we get this weekend. His big game-winning drive at Minnesota wasn't anything special - a short field courtesy of a turnover, one super throw to Muhsin Muhammad on third down, one dump off, one air mailed miss with an open Bernard Berrian on the sideline. The game-winner to Rashied Davis was more about the Chicago offense than Grossman - the line perfectly picked up a Minnesota blitz (about as cleanly as you ever see), and Davis got five yards clear of the nickel back. Easy pitch and catch. I'm still finding it hard to forgive Grossman for the inexcusable pick earlier in the day, and let's not forget he basically wet his pants in the playoffs against Carolina (albeit he hadn't played much prior to that day and maybe it's unfair to grade that one).

Seattle's defense is better than people realize; quietly led the league in sacks last year, hard front seven to run against. Respectable corners. At the end of the day I trust Hasselbeck more than you do. Chicago's defense may be good enough to hold serve on its own, but if they don't have a very good night, I think the Seahawks trip them up.

I'm still trying to reconcile how a disciplinarian like Tom Coughlin has such an undisciplined football team. The Giants make a ton of mental errors every week, so it seems, even when they win. Why is this? Is it even fair to blame Coughlin in the first place?

They say when the greatest of anything comes to your city, you go out and take in the performance. Stupid commercials to the side, Peyton Manning is the best QB of our generation. You're making the right call. Unfortunately for the Jets, so will Manning - there are still exploitable holes in this New York defense (it almost seems like some guys haven't bought into the 3-4 yet). Pennington should get some back on the other end, but this has a 31-20 feel to it.

Look at that New Orleans schedule again. Maybe the Tampa Bay games aren't so bad, but everyone else they play over the next two months looks like a playoff team right now. The Saints schemed brilliantly against Vick, but teams like Carolina and Philadelphia can throw the ball, too. I tip my cap to Payton for making these guys respectable so quickly, but I can't see how they stay in contention through this meat grinder.

Baltimore is done playing Springfield A&T - the real season for them starts now. I don't like the offense much. Steve McNair can't do the same physical things but his mind hasn't caught up to it yet. Too many risky throws. When they call Jamal Lewis a plodder, it's not meant as a compliment. Todd Heap is hurt too much. Their wideouts, eh. The line, eh. If the defense isn't 2000-strength, this is just another pesky team, but no one to really worry about. If the Chargers manage Philip Rivers intelligently, they should win here.

Hopefully the Seahawks and Bears do something worth watching Sunday night because the NBC-ESPN package looks like a dud for the next six weeks. I don't see a blood-pumping game until the Colts-Patriots in early November, and if New England doesn't plug the ship, maybe that's a letdown too. At least NBC gets that flex option later in the year, hopefully there's enough for them to cherry pick. The Monday Night schedule (and the disappointing presentation that's going along with it) is almost enough to make me take up bowling.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: September 27, 2006 10:43:50 AM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Best Wishes for T.O.

Heartbreaking news about Terrell Owens, who reportedly attempted suicide in Dallas last night. If true (and the expected whitewashing has already begun in Dallas), it's a tragedy for him personally. But it's an indictment of the NFL, the players union and every team that's ever had him under contract. I said last year when all the madness broke out in Philly that Owens behavior was a clear sign of severe psychological distress and that he urgently needed psychological counseling. I said he was looking for the unconditional love he never received during his tragic childhood. But you are guaranteed to fail when you try to use your present to solve your past. The past can never be fixed; it needs to be accepted or even re-rememembered. Ironically, Owens didn't need unconditional love as much as just some plain old, everyday humanity. Just one person in authority somewhere along the way to understand his past and use a firm hand to get him badly needed professional help instead of using their authority to slap him with suspensions and fines that only exacerbated his woes.

Now what's happened? The Cowboys lie about why he was hospitalized. Owens has already been released from the hospital. What's he going to be back at practice today and in uniform on Sunday? What a friggin' joke. When will someone, somewhere put Owens the person ahead of Owens the player and stop treating him like a mere commodity? If the team won't do it, the league has to step in. Where's the players union in all this?

It's hard to talk football in light of this, but I'll soldier on.

Saban might turn out to be a good NFL coach. But I don't think his college resume means much in guessing at that. And Lou Holtz had success at multiple programs, too.

I was rooting for the Patriots to beat Cincy just so we could get the public explosion from the seemingly forgotten (seven targets per game) Chad Johnson. But now these prima donna acts by wide receivers suddenly don't seem so amusing. I thought he Patriots secondary was going to be much better this year, but the results thus far have been mixed at best. To win with this kind of offense, the Patriots must shut down opposing passing games.

It's not that I don't trust Hasselbeck. I think Hasselbeck is a very solid QB. But he's played in a conventional offense that heavily relied on the running game and now he's going to be asked to do a 180 (presumably) with four wideouts. That's a tough transition to make in one week. Plus, he has to head into Chicago and face maybe the best defense in football. I'll be very surprised if the Seahawks win. But I do think they'll make adjustments off the bye no matter what. They need that extra week this week, unfortunately for them. And I am starting to believe in the Seattle defense, too. This is another big test for Grossman, but I think he gets a C-plus or B-minus last week (you seem to be giving him a D-minus, but you're a tougher grader).

The Jets defense is shaky, I agree. I don't think they have the athletes that can generate a pass rush off the edge. The Colts are susceptible to 3-4 schemes because they use the shotgun against it and use their guards to block the edge rushers, not the tackles. The shotgun puts Peyton so far back from scrimmage that the blitzing linebackers can race to that spot ahead of the pulling guard. If the Colts went to a direct snap or used a different blocking scheme, they could make it easier on themselves because then the rush angles are shortened and the guards can more easily block the path of the blitzers. (Readers who know the difference between the Pop 2 and Fan blocking schemes get a gold star.)

I don't think we know anything at all about Rivers yet, but we will on Sunday night.

This doesn't seem the time or place for a snappy close. So let's just wish Owens the best, not just between the white lines on Sunday but everyday wherever he may be on this spinning rock.