New Breakfast Served on Thursdays

"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Breakfast of Champions

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: January 15, 2007 8:57:24 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Championship Week Breakfast

Peyton Manning wins and feels sorry for himself about getting blame when they lose and no credit when they win. I love Manning the player and can even tolerate the personality in those endless commercials that are on every break now (fortunately, he's pretty good at it). But he played like crap on Saturday, not matter what Peter King says.

Tom Brady also played like crap yesterday, but the gremlins work for the Patriots this time of year. I don't think I've ever seen a team throw away a game of this magnitude to the extent the Chargers just did.

The Bears defense has hit the skids, apparently. Perhaps the Seahawks deserve more respect. But who would have a better shot in the Super Bowl, Chicago or the Saints? Vegas has the AFC -6.5 right now irrespective of the participants and it opened at -6 before the playoffs started.

I hated to see the Eagles get bounced because they were my dramatic Super Bowl team from the NFC. New Orleans deserved it, though.

Only three games left. Two on Sunday. Both are interesting. But most of the juice is going to be on the Patriots-Colts and the whole Manning soap opera. I'm really rooting for Manning. It's not an anti-New England deal.... But maybe it is. I'm tired of Belichick, his ratty sweatshirts, the Patriots mystique, the canonization of Brady. Two more weeks of it heading into February? I can't take it. So, let's look back a little and forward a lot. Breakfast of Champions is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: January 17, 2007 11:50:34 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: breakfast of champions

I'll dust off the Divisional Playoff notebook first, then take a look forward.

It was odd to see so much mediocre quarterback play, even from the teams that advanced. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were nowhere close to the standard we're used to. Rex Grossman made some good plays and some terrible plays - okay, we've seen that before (he was lucky his third pass wasn't picked, but that seemed to loosen him up). Only Drew Brees could stick his chest out at the end of the weekend.

San Diego somehow found a way to lose despite the fact that LaDainian Tomlinson was dominant all day, Brady was scattershot most of the day, and the Patriots running game never got off the bus. The Chargers made a bunch of mental and emotional mistakes during the afternoon, and many times that's how a better team gets beat (recovering any one of the five balls that hit the ground probably would have helped, too). I have no sympathy over the Lights Out controversy - if San Diego doesn't want opponents acting that way after the game, don't do the dance during the game.

How much blame belongs at the feet of Marty Schottenheimer (or the entire coaching staff for this giveaway)? Are the Chargers backed into a corner now where Marty must be fired?

Here are my coaching critiques: I thought it was stupid to go into a shell on defense at the end of the second quarter, giving Brady a very easy march down the field that made it a ballgame again. I still can't understand why you'd ever pass on a 47-yard field goal from your Pro Bowl kicker in perfect elements, but Marty's done that sort of thing all year. The challenge after the pick-fumble play in the fourth period was just wishful thinking and wasted a timeout, something the Chargers desperately needed on the final drive. And given how dominant Tomlinson was from the opening snap, how is it possible that he never touched the ball on consecutive plays in the second half?

I can't bash San Diego's blitz on 3rd-and-10 like some pundits have - the long pass to Reche Caldwell that set up the game-deciding kick - because that was the one "wow" throw Brady made all day and the coverage from Quentin Jammer wasn't that bad. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to the offense's execution. I'm also not going to come down on Philip Rivers, though he made a big mistake challenging Asante Samuel on the critical 3rd-and-5 when the game was tied in the fourth period.

Moving around the league, I've got some serious questions about some of these running backs. Did Deuce McAllister reinvent himself and come back as a better player? Where did that finishing kick from Dominic Rhodes come from? Tossing in what Cedric Benson did Sunday, we're left with that chicken-egg argument - will the second back in the rotation normally look better because he's working against the tired defenders?

I'm surprised the Baltimore offense hasn't taken more shots for the no-show against Indy. Maybe the Ravens defense blew some easy picks and didn't generate points for once, but at the end of the day they kept the Colts out of the end zone and allowed just 15 points. Steve McNair goes down as another Randy Johnson story - he was brought in to do something in the playoffs and he wasn't able to do it, period.

Let's take a look at the Championship Games, in order. For the Bears it comes down to Grossman against the spotty New Orleans corners - if he can throw the medium and deep ball accurately, Chicago has an excellent chance to win. Jeff Garcia left a bunch of big plays on the field last weekend and the Eagles still lost by just three points. Chicago's offense has enough targets to hurt the Saints, we'll see if the ball is delivered to the right address.

Of course New Orleans will move the ball too; this Chicago defense doesn't look anything like the group that terrorized the league for two months. New Orleans has such wonderful balance, McAllister inside, Reggie Bush outside, Marques Colston is always a matchup problem. Sean Payton's a heck of a play-caller. Add it all up and I have to trust the better offense and the better quarterback (Chicago's home field mojo left with the defense.) Saints 27, Bears 23.

I'll let you have first swing at the nightcap, but you probably know where I'm going with it. Manning has two wins and 67 points in the last two meetings (which were both in New England); Bill Bellichick no longer spooks him and I don't like the depth of the Patriots secondary. What's the case for New England, and will either of us get behind it?

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: January 17, 2007 10:45:53 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: breakfast of champions

I don't want to spend too much time on last week. So I'll focus on areas where I disagree.

Grossman played well, I thought. In fact, I think he basically won the game for the Bears. Berrian dropped another TD pass or he would have put a 30-spot up. How much more can you ask for? Throw out the utterly meaningless last game and Grossman has a 89 QB rating his last four starts. That's good enough to win. But, as you say, the Bears defense is mediocre now.

Garcia played Brees to a draw. The (gasp) running game won it for the Saints, but just barely (which is where you'll be with the running game even when you dominate from scrimmage with 27 first downs and 200-plus rushing yards). Westbrook dropped a sure TD pass and another wide-open play later in the game.

Schottenheimer has to kick the field goal there. You left out the most damning thing, that it was fourth and 11. That's a 20 percent play at best. The field goal is a 70 percenter (from 47 yards). Even if you convert on fourth and 11, there's no guarantee you'll get more than three even though the Chargers were 68 percent in the red zone and 3-for-3 against New England. The math just doesn't work for Marty. He also has to find a way to get LT the ball in space in the second half; line him up at WR since the guys you have there stink anyway.

We've known Steve McNair is shot even though he's a media untouchable. I loved him in his prime, but it's over. He can't make the intermediate throws with accuracy. So, he goes 2-for-11 on third down (Indy's D is 3-for-22 in the postseason after finishing the regular season with the worst third-down defense).

The running backs all bore me. They are so overhyped and overpaid. They mostly get their yards when the line executes. I think we give them too much credit for what they tangibly do and all the intangibles regarding the running game have proven to be vastly overstated. Really, if your defense isn't good, you have to bite your nails to win at the wire even when you dominate like the Saints did from scrimmage (Westbrook's one big run aside).

You can't hide your QB in the playoffs. Philip Rivers was exposed as not ready for January. He played poorly considering all the advantages he had: a clearly superior offensive unit, a line that pretty much knocked the snot out of New England, Antonio Gates, LT at the top of his game.... Still, he couldn't sustain enough drives. Three red zone possessions with all those advantages? That's a joke. The Pats are lucky Brees is in New Orleans.

The QBs are going to decide things this week, too. Brees has done well against the better pass defenses. You can throw out the second Panthers game. But he had four starts against top 5 or 6 pass defenses depending on what stat you use with an 89 rating in those games with 7 TDs and 6 picks. The Bears were the best pass defense during the regular season, but those days are gone, apparently. The Rams had 28 first downs against them Week 14, Tim Rattay shredded them Week 15, Brady tore 'em apart Thanksgiving. So, they're spotty now at best. Even if you optimistically say the Bears are only knocked down a couple of pegs, Brees is likely to clock in at about a 90 QB rating. That should be good for 25 points or so. So, how does Chicago keep pace?

Well, the Saints give up a ton of big passing plays. Grossman has played at about the level we should expect from Brees with reasonable consistency of late. Of course, he can be terrible. I agree that the early pick would have been devastating. But he's past that now. He won the game with a huge, money throw. I'd be surprised if he played poorly. So, I expect a photo-finish in Chicago. I'm back and forth on this game. But let's call it 27-23 Saints only because the forecast calls for little wind.

Brady vs. Manning. Forget about the coaches. Forget about the Patriots gremlins, even. Brady has the recent bad history against the opponent, with the four-pick stinker the last meeting. But you know he's going to be at the top of his game even with his limited offense. I can see Manning just being in the zone and putting 40 up on New England. But I think they need a blowout to win. If it's close, they'll fold. New England will find a way. So, what are the chances of a Colts blowout? Not good. The Patriots and Brady just believe they'll win and that they'll make the key plays in those crucial moments. This confidence is very important when the differences in athletic talent are so minute.

I'm sick of the Pats, as I said. The key here is third down. That's been the secret for the Colts defense. And Brady was 4-for-17 last week at San Diego. But the Chargers are a very tough defense. The Colts are a fraud, benefitting from bad QB play that was to be expected. Trent Green was terrible all year after being knocked out in the opener. McNair is a shell of a player, as previously stated. But this is totally different. Brady has no problems going on long drives against that Cover 2. So, 30-24 New England.

I wonder if I've talked myself into this because this is the scenario I need to mount a comeback in our universal playoff league, which becomes an obsession for anyone who plays. Perhaps. But both games are coin flips, a refreshing change in this round, when the lines are usually a TD or more in at least one of the games. Enjoy it. It's the last week of football for the real fans. The circus comes to town in two weeks. I'm checking out for now. You close.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: January 18, 2007 11:17:43 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: re: breakfast of champions

I think you've overrating the Grossman performance. His QB rating was in the mid-70s and that doesn't include the terrible pocket decision he made on the fumble. Berrian could have caught that pass you mention but if the ball was thrown to the right spot it's an easy touchdown - both players need to share responsibility for that play. Rashied Davis certainly bailed Grossman out on the third pass of the game, which looked like a Jordan Babineaux pick all the way. I still don't trust Rexy week to week, something doesn't seem to add up. Maybe it's the immature comments to the media (the New Year's Eve stuff, or the persecution complex he feels when the fans boo).

When we compare Grossman to Brees we're really looking at boys to men, a shaky, emotional QB up against a cool, calm vet who's not going to be rattled. The more I think about this game, the more convinced I am that the Saints win. Chicago's defense looks like a terrible match for the Saints offense right now (Tommie Harris should renegotiate his deal off of how the unit collapsed without him). If Grossman has a bad first quarter, Soldier Field becomes an angry mob and he wets his pants again. Forget my earlier score, the visitors are going to roll. Saints 27, Bears 17.

I don't think the Patriots did all that much right in their strange win at San Diego, but they did cover Tomlinson very well on pass routes. Okay, they lost him on that one screen and got burned big, but otherwise LT had a police escort every time he wandered into the flat. Nothing intricate to it, but it was smart of the Patriots to make this a point of emphasis (because not everyone does, for some reason).

You're right about McNair, who also has trouble on the sideline throws. A shame that it's going to take the Ravens an extra year or two to realize the inevitable. I won't be surprised when the Ravens go 8-8 or 7-9 next year.

I'm a Patriots fan by birth and yet I'm a little sick of these guys, too. I'm also tired of the Manning-is-a-loser crap so let's get Indy through and get on with our lives. The Colts are 6-1 against playoff teams this year (and that doesn't include a win over Denver that mattered at the time). The defense is a different animal with Bob Sanders back and with some tweaks on the defensive line (someone finally told the ends that every play isn't "attack the pocket"). Manning has won his last two games against this defense, collecting 647yards, five TDs and two glittering QB ratings, so let's scoff every time we hear "Belichick owns Peyton" this week.

If it comes down to third downs, give a big check mark for the horseshoes (Manning 119.1, Brady 76.8). Indy finally gets this game on their fast track (no one will confuse these Patriots with a relay team). Brady always gives you a chance in a big game, but the Colts take it, 30-24.

The weeks move by so quickly but I swear these days are dragging. Let's hope this Sunday can live up to last weekend.