New Breakfast Served on Thursdays

"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Divisional Breakfast

One more great weekend of football left. The Saturday/Sunday doubleheaders are awesome. Usually, the wild card round is fits its name by not being able to be tamed in any predictive sense. But this week seemed to got the way we thought.

The Colts won easily. The Cowboys/Seahawks was a coin-flip between two relatively bad, injured teams. The Patriots and Belichick showed the Jets and Mangini who's still boss. And the Eagles took the rubber match against the Giants. What? We didn't see the Colts turning in a dominating defensive performance against Larry Johnson? The lack of explosive passing plays in Seattle? The bevy of big offensive plays in New England? Or the photo finish in Philly? Well, we're not claiming to be Madame Marie with the crystal ball in Seaside Heights. But all that stuff is so last week. An entirely fresh week of surprises awaits.

Last week, the lines were larger than usual. This week, they're smaller. The teams with byes are usually huge favorites. But Baltimore and New Orleans are both tabbed on Saturday by less than a TD. On Sunday, the Bears are a prohibitive favorite over the Seahawks. But San Diego is favored by merely five against the Patriots; and some think that's too much.

So, let's focus on the coming action. I sense you think Peyton Manning is going to beat the Ravens. Are we off the Eagles bandwagon now that Jeff Garcia fell back to earth a little against the Giants and All Pro CB Lito Shephard (elbow) likely saw his season end? Can we take the early game off on Sunday or do Holmgren and Hasselbeck have a chance? And will New England cooperate at San Diego and would that be good or bad news for the Ravens/Colts winner? Predictions are mandatory this time of year. Week 19 Breakfast is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: January 10, 2007 10:09:38 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: hey 19

Work with me this week, Jersey, walk with me as we sort through these games. I've spent two days immersed in numbers and tape and I'm still pretty fuzzy on what we're going to see next weekend. I guess this is why I get my breakfast in two installments, because this is going to be an unfinished plate when I send it to you.

My first instinct on the AFC favorites is that they're not getting enough respect. The Chargers were just a couple of field goals away from being undefeated, I know I'm just about the last guy to recognize how good the Ravens are, and collectively these teams went 15-1 at home. We shouldn't over-react to what New England and Indianapolis did against ordinary foes. The value of the week off and home field in this round can't be understated. Roll with the chalk, right?

But then I start to wonder about Philip Rivers playing his first playoff game, against Bill Belichick no less; my mind flashes to how poorly Rivers has looked down the stretch at times; I envision Brady finding holes in this Charger secondary. So here's one game I need to come back to.

With all due respect to the big, bad Ravens defense, the Indy guys probably relish the challenge. Everyone else likes to drop back against the Colts and force them to beat you with 1,000 cuts, but Baltimore likes to attack - either way, we'll see some big plays in Baltimore. Peyton Manning had a couple of rare missteps with Marvin Harrison against the Chiefs but it's hard to fault a guy who went 30-for-38 in a playoff game (I don't care how short the passes were). Blitzing has traditionally been an open invitation for Manning to beat you. I like Indy here, under the radar, perhaps taking the path less traveled that the Steelers stumbled upon last year (keep in mind Pittsburgh went 15-1, then tripped up, the previous year).

I look at the Ravens offense and I can't take it seriously. Steve McNair, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Mason, Jonathan Ogden, all guys a few years past their peak (if there are five starting tailbacks in the league worse than Lewis, I'm missing something). Can this offense play well if it falls behind? Let's throw a 10-point deficit at Brian Billick and see what he comes up with. The Indy defense still has the same fleas (I worry about Todd Heap down the seam) but at least its got some confidence and swagger back (and Bob Sanders).I don't know when it kicked in but I'm starting to see the Seahawks in a sympathetic light. For all of the smoke blown up Philly's posterior for making do without Donovan McNabb, no one has suffered a barrage of injuries like Seattle. The Seahawks at different points this year have lost their quarterback, tailback, top receiver, and tight end. The offensive line has been a juggling act all season, and the secondary is basically a community audition. It doesn't surprise me that Matt Hasselbeck doesn't have any timing with his receivers right now; they barely have a chance to practice together. (And oh yes, Deion Branch has turned out to be a fraud. Score another one for Foxboro.)

How do we even attempt to solve the Rex Grossman matrix? He's had eight fantastic games, two mediocre efforts, and six train wrecks. The catch is that I respect every defense that he came up small against (yes, even the Vikings), and I think Ron Turner can get Grossman in a happy place off two weeks to prepare (note that Grossman was letter-perfect after the bye week in October). Chicago's receiver depth is better than people think and the Bears have the best offensive line in the conference. Unless Hasselbeck reverts to 2005 form, Chicago wins comfortably and it might not be close.

Okay, now I blow some smoke to the Eagles. Hey, it's hard to not adopt a pesky survivor team like these guys. But I don't like them off a short week and heading to a team that prepares as well as New Orleans does; I really don't like Lito Sheppard being out of the mix; and I'm not convinced Jeff Garcia doesn't have one stinker left in him. I want to pick the Eagles but unless you talk me into it, I'm probably not going to.

So where does that leave us? Chicago will win, New Orleans should win, Indianapolis could win, and anything looks possible in San Diego. Tune in later today when Pianow makes actual commitments and predictions.

I know we're not here to talk about the past, but give me four quick-hits on the dearly departed: I think Damon Huard should have gotten a chance in the second half . . . I feel bad for Tony Romo, those kicking balls are slick . . . Eric Mangini can't be given too much credit for getting 10 wins out of those Jets . . . There's nothing new to say about the Giants, same as it ever was. I'm stunned they're apparently not running Tom Coughlin out of town, this team badly needs a different song.

Your witness.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: January 10, 2007 12:12:19 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: hey 19

I don't like historic numbers because they really bias us, but we must note the following:

No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are 51-13 this round since 1990. And 26 of the last 32 Super Bowl participants have had Week 18 byes. So, the teams this week have a huge advantage on paper. Also note, however, that just last year two top seeds lost this round on the same day (Indianapolis and Chicago).

These are really tough matchups except for Chicago and Seattle, as you noted but sort of hedged on though maybe you're just leaving some nice parting gifts on the Table for all of our friends in the state of Washington.

The great action this week, the games that will likely have the greatest impact on who our eventual Super Bowl champion is, are in the AFC. Two fascinating matchups. Let's take first things first with the Colts returning to Baltimore to face the Ravens. I'll save Chargers-Patriots for last.

Manning evokes Unitas so much, stylistically and substantively, that you can't help but fantasize about how he would be viewed in the Crabcake Capital if the Colts never left. Now, I guess he's public enemy No. 1.

Baltimore is a nasty defense. They sack the QB once every 8.5 attempts. They had 28 picks and returned six turnovers for TDs. Those are scary numbers. Plus, they play the hyper-aggressive 46 defense. Peyton Manning has not been the same QB in the postseason. In his last 198 postseason attempts, he has nine picks. That's about as many as he gets in 500 passes or so some regular seasons. On paper, this seems like a nightmare matchup for him.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but I think the Ravens will play right into his hands if they challenge him with the blitz and aggressive coverages. And if they don't, they're not playing Ravens football, so they're in a bind.

Manning has a reputation of being a guy who crumbles when you get some men in his face. But this year, he had a 88.8 QB rating when pressured, which is about as good as it can get. When blitzed (and the Colts pick up a lot of them with their blockers or with quick strikes by Manning), he has a 127 QB rating with 12 TDs and zero picks in 119 passes. Even more amazingly, in 119 blitzes, he was sacked THREE TIMES. For the season, he was sacked once every 37 attempts, so teams had less success sacking him when blitzing than when not blitzing. That's how well he and his team adjust to the extra rushers.

I think Manning is licking his chops just thinking about finally being able to make some plays downfield. He's fed up with the Cover 2 looks and the safeties on Mars. He said he was sick of it in Week 3, so I can only imagine how he feels now.

I'm not buying the Colts defense. Last week, LJ didn't get off because the Chiefs went 1-for-11 on third down. Trent Green is totally shot and should have been benched. All those three-and-outs kept the carries way down for Johnson and a back needs carries to pile up the yards on the two or three big runs he'll eventually get if given the rock enough. Steve McNair isn't going 1-for-11 on third down. And even Jamal Lewis will get rolling eventually against the still-soft Colts front seven. So, I expect the game to be played in the mid-20s. And I expect the Colts to get a couple of really big passing plays and prevail. Hopefully, this will shut the Manning doubters up once and for all. Colts 30, Ravens 22.

Garcia got it done last week in crunch time. I'm more worried about their secondary minus Lito Shephard than I am about Garcia, who I think will play well. And Brian Westbrook will again be the best player on the field. Sean Peyton is obviously very familiar with Jim Johnson's Philly Blitz, so that's an interesting coaching matchup.

The key here is that the Saints pass defense is very overrated. Everyone looks at yards allowed, which is retarded. The Saints are third best there. But they're 31st in TD pass percentage allowed. And they're not facing good QBs in the NFC south. So, which numbers are more meaningful relative to this matchup?

We talk about Rivers, but Brees was awful at New York and I live five minutes from the Stadium and can tell you the wind was absolutely not a factor. The wind didn't knock over my empty garbage cans. Inside that Giants Stadium bowl, it was a mere whisper. Yet Brees averaged 4.1 YPA that game and 5.4 the week before against the Redskins. Defenses are knocking down a lot of his passes of late, disrupting his timing. I think that will be a factor again Saturday night.

When in doubt on these games, I focus on the two most important stats, Net YPA and Net points per attempt (PPA). The Saints were No. 1 in Net YPA, but the Eagles were second. The Eagles were also second in Net PPA, while the Saints were 21st because of their rotten defensive performance there. I think Philly wins this by a TD or more because they're the best balanced team by far in the NFC. I wish Shephard were healthy, but Horn is banged up and Coltston hasn't played much of late, either and may be rusty. Eagles 27, Saints 21.

The Seahawks/Bears leaves me flat, I admit. I'm going to be looking longingly at my kids' Wii during that contest. (The tennis is addictive and I don't even play real tennis; just clear the room when I'm swinging that Wii-mote.) I think Seattle stinks. The K-Ball did them in and it's so stupid and anti-science because it's been proven that you can fill a ball up with helium and have no effect in the kicking game because a helium-filled ball is lighter and thus has less inertia traveling through the air; for the same reason, you can throw a regulation football further than the old Nerf balls. End of science lesson. Back to Da Bears, who can't pressure the QB as well with Tommy Harris out (sacks once every 20 attempts down from once every 12 with him). Harris really dominated that first meeting. But Hasselbeck is not consistent and patient enough to go into Chicago and play crisp and mistake free. A healthy Shaun Alexander would help. He was really grimacing in pain with that foot injury at the end of the Cowboys game; but he's not even on the injury report. Alexander did not look good at all vs. Dallas save for that last carry out of his end zone. I mean, how do you get dumped for a seven-yard loss on first and goal from the one? I'll say 20-10 Bears, but it could get really ugly if the Bears get that 20 in the first half and then beat up the Seahawks with a couple of defensive returns in the second half.

Chargers and Patriots. Fascinating matchup. By the way, really enjoyed the Belichick book, which adds to my analysis here. Belichick will try to take San Diego out of their comfort zone with Tomlinson. Easier said than done, of course. But he's going to make Rivers beat him. Now, can he figure out a way to take Tomlinson and Gates out of the game? The Chargers are a two-man team. But how do you stop the RB and the dominant receiving tight end? If it can be done, he'll find a way.

As you noted, Rivers did decline consistently throughout the year, going from great to above average. He's must play somewhere in between for the Chargers to win. I don't think he'll need to be great. And I think Tomlinson must be a factor in the passing game if the yards become too tough out of the backfield.

I'm not a believer in the San Diego defense. The Chargers faced one big-time offense all year and Cincy put a 40-spot up on 'em. Now, are the Patriots a big-time offense? I don't think so. They don't have the weapons at receiver. Corey Dillon is just a guy now. Maroney looks like he's hit a wall. Brady is great, but I don't think he can squeeze more than 25 points out of this offense on the road. Add in the Chargers fierce pass rush and you can subtract a few more points. Can the Patriots hold the Chargers to 20 points or less? Can't see it. Yes, New England is the second-best red zone defense and doesn't allow hardly any possessions (the sweetest combo). But the Chargers live in the red zone and score TDs 68 percent of the time.

Maybe the Patriots will come out in a 46 defense. That gave the Chargers trouble versus the Raiders and Ravens. But the chameleon stuff goes only so far. No matter how smart the staff and players are, you can't go Baskin Robbins with the 30-something varieties in the NFL against top-flight opponents, which the Chargers are. Rivers is a wildcard. But the Chargers have more impact players. Yes, the Patriots have Brady but he won't be enough. Chargers 28, Patriots 23.

Enough from me. Time for you to step into the forecasting spotlight.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: January 11, 2007 10:23:33 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: nineteen forever

I'm with you on historical stuff, it's normally a mistake to look too far back (who cares that LaDainian Tomlinson cut up the Patriots in the fourth week of 2002?). But does it matter that Marty Schottenheimer has blown five straight playoff games? It's weird to say it but Marty might be coaching for his job here - his relationship is frosty with A.J. Smith and if the Chargers go out quickly, a change would not surprise anyone.

The Chargers should use Tomlinson liberally in the passing game, as you noted. New England's linebackers and safeties look better on paper than they do to the eye - this isn't the fastest group in the world and it's going to have issues with Antonio Gates anyway. If I'm Cam Cameron I make sure Tomlinson catches five balls or more, and I'd run at least one gadget play as well. Just keep it from being a game Philip Rivers has to do a lot in, if possible. (When Rivers is in a throwing situation, I want to see Vincent Jackson on the field. Play your best guys, San Diego.)

I realize Maroney didn't make any big plays against the Jets but still he adds up to 38-190 the last three weeks, five yards a pop. He's fine, if anything rested from the three-week siesta he got in the last quarter of the season. The Patriots need him to get 15 or more touches here as he's capable of getting to the second level regularly while Dillon really isn't. At the end of the day I think Brady is one puzzle piece short on the outside - maybe his hot guys can make short gains to beat the San Diego blitz, but this isn't a YAC type of group (just once I want to see Brady with a dynamic running mate). I think you're in the right area for the score, call it Chargers 27, Patriots 23.

I go back and forth on how good this Baltimore defense really is. The schedule was littered with a bunch of crummy QB opponents, in truth (I'm not moved when you shut down the Bucs, Raiders, Browns or Plummer-led Broncos). Okay, what about the good ones? The Ravens split with Carson Palmer. Drew Brees got them for 383 yards and three touchdowns, though he also threw three picks. Vince Young had a mixed day, some big plays, some mistakes. Jake Delhomme isn't really good but the Panthers beat these guys deep a few times. Look for the Colts to pick on Samari Rolle whenever possible.

Maybe the Ravens wind up winning here anyway, but I don't think it will be because the defense hands Manning his lunch. McNair needs to play well if Baltimore is going to advance, unless the Ravens pixie dust of special teams shows up again (I refuse to write that into the preview). I could be guilty of rooting for the story over logic, but put me down for Colts 24, Ravens 20. The Ravens aren't going to back off the accelerator on defense, and here's one time where that will get them beat.

I concur that Sheppard is a major loss for the Eagles, though it's lessened a bit if Joe Horn also skips the game. The remainder of the secondary is deep enough to play Marques Colston to a draw, and Devery Henderson is a hit-or-miss guy who leaves big plays on the field every week. I think you're being far too hard on Brees for the New York game - the Saints had a gaggle of drops that day, and I'm sure the elements had to play a role with Eli Manning going 9-for-25 (Eli's inaccurate, but he's not that bad).

The Saints defense plays as much man coverage on the corner as anyone (Joey Galloway practically drools when he sees New Orleans on the secondary), so big plays will be there if Jeff Garcia can make the throws (you're very right to question the value of gross-yardage rankings). Still, I get the idea Garcia couldn't break 60 mph at the carnival, and we all know his strength is the short throws, hitting receivers in stride, that sort of thing. If he's on the mark for the intermediate and deeper chucks, Philly wins, but I'm going to trust the rested team with the better quarterback. Saints 27, Eagles 24.

In more mundane table agreement, I can't find interesting elements to the Seahawks and Bears, either. If Grossman wets his pants again, okay, give Seattle a chance. Otherwise, this will be the most lopsided game of the weekend; you can throw on the Chicago secondary, but the Seahawks passing game hasn't had teeth all year. Put down Bernard Berrian for at least one big play against the Seattle Cover-0, give Grossman a dry afternoon, watch Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson grind it out behind the Chicago beef, and it's 31-14, Bears. If you're skipping any of the weekend quad, this is the one to pass on.

Still, hey, three matchups with juice, that's not bad at all. The action wasn't all that intriguing last week, but we'll get paid back with interest here.