New Breakfast Served on Thursdays

"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Wild Card Breakfast

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: January 2, 2007 9:39:22 AM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Wild Card Breakfast

It's still Christmas in New York, with locals dominating the week's playoff slate (though very likely not their respective games).

This was supposed to be a hotly contested postseason, right? And the wildcard games are usually the tightest. So, why are the lines so large for all but the Seattle-Dallas game? Are we missing something or is Vegas? (Vegas so rarely misses anything.)

Is there a point to the Cowboys and the Seahawks, meaning could the winner actually amount to anything this month? Can any of these teams overcome the handicap of the third game and make it to the Super Bowl or even win it like last year's No. 6 seed, Pittsburgh?

If the Chiefs run roughshod over the Colts (which they almost assuredly will) and win (which might, despite our thoughts to the contrary), will it distort NFL reality further by again turning the exception into the rule? I mean, of course, the idea that run defense especially is absolutely critical to January success. (And I know that we now play the Super Bowl in February, but this concession to the networks bugs me. I had no problem with the season always starting the Sunday before Labor Day and ending the week before network sweeps.)

So, let's go in order: Chiefs at Colts, Cowboys at Seahawks, Jets at Patriots and Giants at Philadelphia. Who wins and why. Predictions are a must. Wild Card Breakfast is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: January 3, 2007 9:08:37 AM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: Wild Card Breakfast

We should be in for a great month, amigo. Everyone's got some fleas in this year's tournament, there's not one big, bad favorite. And with Pittsburgh's win fresh in everyone's mind, heading on the road for the first weekend doesn't seem all that daunting anymore.

Okay, to the opener - while the problems in Indy are well documented, they should take care of the Chiefs handily. I don't trust the Kansas City pass rush or secondary depth, and those are the worst things you can say about a team on the road against Peyton Manning. Trent Green played well *once* in the last two months. Larry Johnson is a nice back and all, but unless he runs for 200-plus, this won't be all that close.

And at the risk of being incredibly redundant, let's tip the cap one last time for the year Manning had. Given the context around him these days (no third receiver; the changing of the guard at running back; the leaky defense), this wasn't that much of a drop down from 2004. It's ridiculous that Manning handled the ball 593 times and had just 10 turnovers. His third-down work has never been better ( 119.1 rating, 18 touchdowns against three picks, 56 percent conversions for the offense). The Ravens are a horrible matchup for the Colts next week, but if Manning is at his sharpest they have a chance to steal it. We'll discuss that more next week.

I look at the Dallas-Seattle matchup and I wonder how anyone can win. Just when everyone got in line to praise the Dallas defense a month ago (and I was right there), the unit absolutely collapsed. The pass rush checked out after Thanksgiving dinner, and other than Terence Newman there isn't a decent cover guy in this secondary. It's one thing when Drew Brees cuts you up, but when Michael Vick and Jon Kitna embarrass you, there's a big problem. Matt Hasselbeck got a little of his groove back last week (Mike Holmgren was smart to take the game seriously), and I think Seattle will make its points pretty easily Saturday night.

But how much will the Seahawks secondary give back? This unit has been shaky all year, and now it's riddled with injury to boot. For all of Dallas's sloppiness of late, the Pokes can still move the ball in a variety of ways. This looks like one of those "last team to score wins" games . . . I'm calling it 30-27 Seattle, but go ahead and talk me out of it.

The line on the Jets-Patriots surprised me too, though I don't see New York springing another upset. New England gets Vince Wilfork back, a huge key to the rushing defense, and the Jets won't have their only reliable corner (Andre Dyson). Okay, it's not like Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney scare anyone, but I really like how Tom Brady's been throwing the ball the last three weeks. Keep in mind the Jets won the last meeting despite Chad Pennington, not because of him. As impressed as I've been with the Jets this year, I don't see them having enough ammo to win two games at Gillette Stadium. New York will lose with dignity, but it ends here for Gang Green.

The Eagles look like the ticklish sleeper in the NFC, eh? Running the table on the road in the division in December took some stones, not to mention a brilliant job from Andy Reid (the most underrated coach of his generation). I suppose they got lucky that Jeff Garcia fit the offense so well (albeit no one could have expected what he's done the last month). The secondary is the best in the conference and it's playing with a swagger and confidence these days. The Philly key this week is simple - make sure Tiki Barber doesn't beat you, and dare Eli Manning to. The Giants pulled a rabbit out of the hat in that September classic, but I haven't trusted this New York team for two months. Unless something really strange happens, the Eagles fly into Round 2. (While we're at it, I dare Tom Coughlin's staff to out-manuever Reid's. I just can't see it.)

Four games, four favorites advancing? Okay, that's not happening. There's a flaw in my reasoning somewhere. Who's upsetting who? I suppose the NFC is the place to look, given that the conference combined for a losing record at home this year (very difficult to do).

Snippets for the speed round: I guess Denny Green was who we thought he was . . . I know we're a pro blog and not a college gig, but note for the record that Boise State and Oklahoma just played the best Bowl Game of our lifetimes . . . Who would you pick in the AFC NIT, the Bengals, Steelers, Broncos or Titans? At the end of the day the conference had two awful teams (Cleveland, Oakland), and 14 respectable ones (Miami and Buffalo had their moments) . . . For a guy who didn't make the Pro Bowl, Lee Evans seemed to be wide open an awful lot . . . Tennessee better make sure Norm Chow doesn't get away. It's a critical time for Vince Young (he'll be a superstar if he can continue to throw first, run second) and changing systems now would be a major step back.

I'm done shuffling - your deck, deal me some winners.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: January 3, 2007 6:41:39 PM EST
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Wild Card Breakfast

Everyone has fleas in the salary cap era, that's a given. We're never going to see teams like there were a generation ago. But, given these caveats, I think it's a very strong field, at least in the AFC. The Patriots, Ravens and Chargers are very good and the Ravens arguably even old-school dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts are seriously flawed but do have the best QB who ever lived (yes, Peyton needs a ring to cement that but he can't do that himself). And, as you said, Manning is probably playing the best football of his life.

Oh, how I'm rooting against the Chiefs because Larry Johnson is definitely running wild. And, if the Chiefs win, that will confirm the biased media view that running games and run defenses rule. Fortunately, Reggie Wayne should have a field day even if Ty Law can still handle Marvin Harrison more or less by himself. Manning will just find a way, I think. He'll make all those scrubini third and fourth options look really good because he'll find them when they happen to be neglected by the coverage. And like you said, he's so mistake-free. No sacks, no fumbles, no picks (relatively speaking). He starves a defense. It's demoralizing.

Great point about Trent Green. Maybe he shouldn't have come back from that nasty concussion. Maybe he's too afraid of taking another shot (and what sane person wouldn't be). There's such a narrow range for a QB. He needs the focus that adrenaline brings, but he can't play afraid. Of course, Green could have coincidentally suffered an age-based decline. But so steep and so relatively soon for a QB? That seems unlikely to me.

Hasselbeck has to show me something. I've been on the fence about him more than most. I never saw greatness or even anything approaching it. Solid player, yes. But not great. And now he's trying to carry a team and I don't think he's capable of it. As a result, he's 27th in interception percentage. My latest theory of why interceptions impact outcomes so much more than lost fumbles (even when you back out picks after the game has been decided) is that it just kills playcalling aggressiveness. Think about it, when a back has butterfingers they'll put his backup in but keep running. A QB throws a couple of early picks and they reign in the passing game something fierce and start playing afraid. No data. But it seems a reasonable hypothesis.

The Seahawks secondary doesn't make any plays and the starters are hurt. You can't count on the backups to do much. I think Romo plays clean and if he does that, the Cowboys are scoring 30 points. Will Seattle attack or will they try to protect their secondary by running against the Cowboys decent front seven? Shaun Alexander isn't Shaun Alexander anymore, I'm sorry. The chalk pick is a shootout and the game is basically a pick 'em. I'll back Dallas because of the depleted Seattle defensive backfield.

Everyone is talking about the Jets being a nightmare matchup for Belichick and the Pats. But I think it's the other way around. Mangini learned enough from Belichick to out-coach about 80 percent of his colleagues most days. I'd love to see him matched up against just about anyone else because he'd cut into the Jets relative weakness in personnel. But he's not going to out-coach Belichick and the Pats are better than the Jets. So the Jets win only with some turnovers or explosive passing plays. Brady doesn't get picked much (eighth in interception percentage). And Pennington is 17th in interception percentage. The Patriots have Pennington's number. The most overlooked stat this year is the Pats allowing just 10 TD passes. Three were to Pennington. Two more were to Peyton Manning. That leaves five for the other 13 games. Pretty damn awesome secondary performance and even better coaching because I don't think those guys are that good, talent wise.

The Giants fans are saying that, "If we play our best game, we can beat the Eagles." Well, what's the Giants best game? Have they had a best game all year? Recently? Was their best game that nip and tuck win at Washington Saturday night where they needed all those long rushing TDs to prevail? This team is in big trouble Sunday against a very underrated Eagles squad.

Philly is the best in football in Net YPA and Net PPA (TD passes per attempt). The best team in both those categories always has a reasonable case for at least being a conference favorite. I know they have to play two road games and face a top pass offense and top pass defense (in all likelihood). But the Saints give up too many TD passes and the Bears are getting hurt by their own passing game more than helped of late. The Eagles pass great and defend the pass great. Philly will be a tough out.

We are ahead of ourselves, of course. They must beat the Giants first. But I can't take the Giants seriously not because they're 8-8, but because they stink. There are a bunch of 8-8 AFC teams that I'd take very seriously and who can beat anyone when they put it together. But you can't win in January when you have a shaky pass defense and a QB you have to play around. That's where Eli Manning is more than 40 starts into his career. Who woulda thunk it?

Good point about Reid. He's done it with a bunch of different QBs. The Eagles have as many TD passes this year as does Indy. And they don't throw picks, either (second in interception percentage). Jeff Garcia has played slightly better than Donovan McNabb and McNabb was playing at a high level. Garcia's performance has been the most shocking think I've witnessed since I've been writing about football professionally.

I'm too involved with the pros to follow college but, in retrospect, I do wish I caught that Boise State game. After tying one on post-firing, Dennis woke up in a Soho doorway and a policeman knew his name. Steelers are the best of the non-playoff teams you mentioned. But Jacksonville is the most dangerous. They should have won 12 games given their stat profile and Jack Del Rio seems to agree because he fired half his staff. The Titans did it with mirrors. I love Vince Young. And I'll adjust his stats given it was his rookie year. But there's no tangible greatness there yet. And I think Chow did a bad job because he didn't put Vince Young in the shotgun enough. He passed significantly better there (77 QB rating) than from under center. (The splits are murky, but keep in mind he had a 67 QB rating overall and about as many attempts from behind center than from the shotgun, so let's give him a 57 rating on all those other snaps.) And Young's a MUCH better runner out of the shotgun (8.3 yard per carry on 53 attempts versus about 3 yards per carry on his 30 rushes when he wasn't in the shotgun). So, screw Norm Chow. They need a coordinator that will change his system completely to fit Young's unique strengths.

So, Chiefs, Cowboys, Pats and Eagles. All to win and to cover. That's enough from me this week. You close. No food reference because I've eaten so many of my wife's cookies that I hate myself when I even think about it. I'm sure that's why she keeps makin' 'em!

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: January 4, 2007 12:04:58 PM EST
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: face dances

Oh, I definitely agree, the AFC is loaded (no wonder Nick Saban ran for his life). But part of the tournament intrigue comes from the Philip Rivers tape over the last month, two terrible starts out of four (even as the Seattle Cover-0 scheme bailed him out). We have no idea how he'll react when the bell rings on the first pressure test of his pro career. You're probably sick of me saying this, but had Drew Brees come back for one more season (as Marty Schottenheimer wanted), I think the Chargers would be on cruise control this month. Instead, it's a wide-open conference.

You couldn't be more right on the LJ angle - every two-bit hack who covers this league (and there are many of them) has that story half-written in their laptop as we speak. Gotta stop the all-powerful running game, Jersey! Isn't that how the Vikings got to the Bluebonnet Bowl?

Green's collapse doesn't make sense to me - for four years this guy was as confident as anyone in the pocket, never seemed to make a bad decision. Now he's Rusty Hilger and I can't connect the dots. I'm not surprised Herm Edwards has Damon Huard warming up in the bullpen, though it was a surprise to hear the coach openly concede it to the media (I guess he's playing to win the game).

Hasselbeck was great in 2005, no other time, albeit it hasn't always been his fault (the dropped pass wasn't invented in Atlanta, kids, but rather in Seattle). But have a look at the rest of the QBs left standing in the conference. Romo has eight picks and seven fumbles the last five weeks (I still like the kid though); no one can trust Eli Manning or Rex Grossman right now; and until my lawyer reviews the Jeff Garcia Faustian Pact I'm not over-committing on that story. (I'll pass on further Brees adulation, that's been done enough.)

Bottom line, I think Hasselbeck and the Seahawks will struggle in Chicago next week (assuming Philly wins as well and the matchups fall that way). But how can we expect the Dallas defense to stop anyone right now? When you can't cover Mike Williams and Roddy White, something is seriously wrong. At the end of the day in Seattle the offense that makes the least amount of giveaways will win because the yards and points, weather permitting, should flow easily. I agree with you that Seattle's secondary is in big trouble, too - it was sketchy even before the injuries. But I'm giving the experienced Hasselbeck the benefit of the doubt over the frisky Romo, and I'm also trusting Holmgren to be wise enough to realize he has to attack where Dallas is weak (basically go at any secondary guy not wearing No. 41).

I expect the Jets to compete with New England but from a Belichick standpoint it's a good matchup. The New York offense is not complicated or hard to scheme against. Pennington just got his award and bully for him, but the best thing about his season was making it through 16 starts - the Jets don't attack downfield enough (Jerricho Cotchery's game-changing catch from November to the side) and this passing game doesn't really scare anyone, either.

New England's pass defense stats, impressive as they are, were significantly aided by a cushy quarterback schedule (you astutely predicted this months ago).The Patriots were also stellar against No. 1 wideouts most of the year (I know Coles got them once in the Meadowlands), while the support guys had their way with this group. So it comes back to Cotchery - he's a huge key Sunday, and if the Jets somehow pull an upset, I think he has to be a factor. That said, I'm scoring it to the teacher over the student, too, something like 20-13.

The Giants are the ADD kids of the NFL - they play great quarters here and there, but it's not a 60-minute thing. They started great in Washington. They finished fast in Philly. If they can't maintain it for a full game, they're going to get blown out by the NFC's best team. Yeah, I'm drinking the Eagles Kool Aid and I'm starting to think the winner of next week's Philly-New Orleans game goes to the Super Bowl (unless Seattle's no-work, no-show cover scheme finds a way to revitalize Grossman's confidence during the same weekend).

The buried story with the Giants is the defense, which has been a mess all season (14 teams in the AFC allowed less points). These guys made Jason Campbell look like Jim Kelly last week, but the media is conditioned to blame every New York problem on Manning and Coughlin and ignore everything else. Andy Reid's got a full set of chess pieces to work with, a resurgent running game and line, four excellent receivers, a smart, mobile QB. Unless a lot of strange bounces go New York's way, Big Blue is in big trouble. (At least Tiki stayed in one piece for the full year, even if the coaching staff didn't use him right.)

Clean-ups out the door: I loved the Who reference on Denny Green, though to me he's an "Eminence Front" guy, a put-on all the way . . . I guess the exit music on Saban becomes "Won't Get Fooled Again" at least as far as the NFL is concerned. He'll win big at Alabama though . . . The Jags got terrible gas mileage, the Titans went halfway cross the country on fumes - let's keep that in mind when the windows open in 2007 . . . I think you're flat-wrong on Chow, who for my money did a fantastic job getting a young, raw QB to be as good as he could be in his first season. We'll continue this debate I'm sure . . . Whoever inherits the Steelers (assuming Bill Cowher walks as expected) is finding a winning lottery ticket on the street . . . That's a fascinating angle on the interception/fumble theory. I'd like to see Mike Shanahan play one more full year with Jake Plummer and Tatum Bell so we can test it out . . . Have we ever seen more playoff coaches in limbo even before the games play out? Coughlin, Parcells and even Schottenheimer face uncertain futures, no matter that their teams are in the tournament. It's got a strange feel to it.

And with that, to the couch. Remember the Robert Smith rule of watching continuous football - take a few notes now and then, it helps justify things to the wife.