"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

2006 NFL Kick-Off Breakfast

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: September 4, 2006 8:42:55 AM EDT
To: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: Kick-Off Breakfast

The hour and minute are fast approaching. Beyond the Charlie Batch (not exactly the NFL Kickoff that NBC had in mind), an entire season awaits: the quickest 17 weeks known to man.

Football is chemically complex compared to the other sports. That's why it surprises us more and why it's so much fun to watch. The interactions between coaches and players and teammates and opponents threaten to make the whole thing unfathomable. Fortunately, chemistry in football takes a back seat to physics and the most physically dominant players usually win the battles and, ultimately, the wars.

I think the truth of that deceives us into looking at the wrong things in the wrong places. NFL fans assume that the physically dominant team is the one that best uses the sledgehammer of the running game. "Three yards and a cloud of dust" has a poetic resonance, but it has little to do with who wins and loses each week. In fact, it never did, as Vince Lombardi's championship Packers teams led the NFL net yards and points per PASSING attempt. And those who like to point to the Steelers beating the high-flying Colts need to be reminded that it was Pittsburgh and not Indy that led the NFL last year in those key passing stats (even with the flotsam they threw out there for a quarter of the season when Ben Roethlisberger was sidelined).

Of course, Pittsburgh didn't throw enough last year, so that dominance didn't clearly express itself during the regular season. Will they play to their strength in 2006? I can see New England's pass defense rebounding, especially when you look at their schedule. The Panthers should dominate their opponent in YPA every week, too. Of course, the Colts will always have a huge edge with Peyton and with the havoc caused by their Dwight Freeney-led pass rush. Peyton, Delhomme, Brady, Roethlisberger.... Will one of these QBs be holding the Lombardi Trophy aloft come February? Or will someone else emerge as a serious Super Bowl threat? Who are going to be the playoff teams? Let's get it on the record. 2006 NFL Kick-Off Breakfast is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: September 4, 2006 8:17:08 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: Kick-Off Breakfast

You know I'm laughing along with you as the common media over glorifies the running game, but at the end of the day we see things a little differently. It's great when teams have efficient and dangerous passing games, but I wonder how much of those pretty passing stats come from winning situations (and not the other way around). It's a heck of a lot easier to throw the ball when you *want* to as opposed to when you *have* to. And most one-dimensional offenses are fairly easy to stop, with few exceptions.

Let's not bring up the Starr/Lombardi Packers, though. Vastly different game, my friend. The pass defense rules were totally different. The athletes were different. The game plans were different. It's not even apples and oranges, it's apples and lawnmowers. But I guess your point is to underscore how history glorifies what it wants to glorify, reality be damned.

My 2006 predictions are still simmering, so I won't have anything concrete for you until the next send. A few thoughts to tease, in the meantime:

Preseason isn't supposed to mean much of anything, but are the Redskins really this bad? Does it matter who Mike Shanahan uses in his running game? Does it matter who Tom Brady throws to? Do the Colts get their NFC South title in the mail, or do they have to play a full schedule? Do you even want to talk about the Cowboys?

You've had a month or two to see Eric Mangini in action - is he the next Nick Saban or the next Mike Nolan? Do the Dolphins belong in the frisky file or the overrated file? What's Larry Johnson's upside now that the KC line has been gutted? What is it about Chris Simms that I'm missing - everyone seems to like him but me. Is this the year everyone finds out that Rex Grossman really can't play?

Given all the shots people have taken at the NFC North lately, it's a little ironic that Daunte Culpepper and Charlie Batch open the season in three days. Is it time we gave the Steelers some respect, or was their playoffs more of a Forrest Gump story, being in the right place at the right time? What's all this talk of Bill Cowher leaving? Does Jerome Bettis even realize how lucky he was?

I was on record for Indianapolis-Carolina before the preseason, and I haven't talked myself out of it yet. I guess I'm rooting for the Peyton Manning coronation because I'm sick of hearing people talk about him like he's Rusty Hilger. The Colts have the best passing game (by far - don't Kurt Warner me, Jersey), a disruptive defense, a legit home-field advantage (which they'll earn again). The Panthers look pretty darn solid to be top to bottom, a team that can beat you a number of ways on both sides of the ball. John Kasay's not a bad kicker, either.

Colts 33, Panthers 27. The rest of it is negotiable. Your witness.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: September 5, 2006 12:20:23 AM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Kick-Off Breakfast

Yes, correlation is not necessarily causation. But something has to be the most important ingredient to winning in the NFL. When something else correlates to winning better than those passing stats I often cite, I'll be the first to trumpet them. But I bet nothing ever will because nothing has since Paul Brown changed the game forever in the 1950s.

Remember, though, it's not necessarily how well many yards you gain per attempt or how efficient you score are in scoring with your passing, it's just how you do that relative to your opponent. That's why the net stats are used. Last year, the 10 best teams in net YPA were 111-49, the 10 worst 48-112. In points per attempt, the top 10 were 108-52, the bottom 10 50-110. Just for fun, here are the top 10 in net points: 115-45, bottom 10, 43-117. When you have a single stat (Net YPA) that's right in the ballpark with net points, you've got something golden.

I think saying the preseason doesn't mean much of anything is giving the preseason too much credit. It means less than that. A lot less. The games don't mean as much to the coaches as the practices and not even the media sees them anymore. So, we're all in the dark about what's gone on since February. But we'll find out soon. Here are some educated guesses.

The Redskins are going to be good, as they have the best coaching staff in football. Since coaching is far more important in the NFL than in any other sport, I figure they'll be 10-6. The one caveat with them is that Brunell can go at any time and what's behind him is totally unknown, though the staff says it loves Jason Campbell. Portis is a big-time question mark, too.

Fantasy guys care about the Broncos running game, but it will be shut down if Jake Plummer is rendered ineffective. That's what happened to them last year against the Steelers. I don't believe in the retread Denver defense, either. I like KC to threaten them in the West because I think Ty Law can still play and turn around that pass defense. I have to see Rivers play for real before I have an opinion on San Diego.

Speaking of the Steelers, they're for real, of course. It's no fluke when you lead the NFL in those key net passing stats. The fluke was doing that and not winning 14 or 15 games. But that's Bill Cowher for you.

The WR crew the Patriots are throwing out there without Deion Branch and David Givens is pitiful, on paper. Do QBs make receivers? We'll get a great lab experiment with the Pats. It's good for us that they've got the guts to try. My Tivo eagerly awaits.

I know that Bill Parcells is very excited about his defense. This should scare the NFC East. I think Owens is going to be a good signing because he is the kind of playmaker that stops teams from blitzing and pass protection is the Cowboys achilles heel as long as Bledsoe is back there, stiff as a board. I like Dallas to win the East at 11-5, but they do have a tough schedule.

I'll let you handle the Giants, who I think are going to be exposed after coasting last year with the powder-puff schedule (and schedules are important to consider, in hindsight).

Who cares about the Jets? Who knows about Mangini? He'll be learning how to coach for at least a couple of seasons unless he really is a genius. I'm down non the Jets since I heard GM Mike Tannenbaum seriously say that Preston Pearson was related to Drew Pearson when someone compared rookie Brad Smith to Preston. Did he even watch football as a kid? The Cowboys were on every week, bro'.

What's Nick Saban done in the NFL? The Dolphins sucked last year when it mattered and then beat up a bunch of bad teams or ones that didn't care, like New England in Week 17. Brooks Bollinger made them look silly in December. I think the defense is a problem and I think Culpepper will be a disappointment generally and a disaster in the big moments of big games now that he can't bail himself out with those scrambles.

Johnson did have 450 rushing yards without Roaf for three games last year. But the line changes there are a concern. Sometimes, though, change is good. I think stability is overrated in the NFL. But KC was blindsided by the retirement, clearly.

As for Simms, well, you didn't like Palmer either. I think you made up your mind on Palmer in college, too. But coaching is a big deal. Systems matter. I think Simms is an accurate passer and an intriguing prospect, but the jury is definitely still out. I do not like the Bucs this year (but not because of Simms, but more the aging running game and shaky receivers). Don't like Atlanta either, as Vick makes me Sick. The Panthers will run away with the South. We're in agreement there.

I like your Super Bowl prediction. I feel like the person who orders the same thing as his friend at the restaurant. I want to change just to get some variety. But I can't change Carolina, who I love. I think the Seahawks will backslide. I like the Cardinals to contend for a wildcard spot there, though Seattle is still safe in the division. And I like the Colts for the same reason you do. The Manning stuff is just stupid. No way someone that good in the regular season and even in some playoff games, let's not forget, chokes. I do think the whole thing is in his head though and it's going to be a big distraction come January. But I'm rooting for him. But I'll go New England just to be different. Of course, I need Branch back by October 1 for that; and I think that will happen. Maroney in for Dillon, too. But that's almost a given in my mind, eventually.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: September 5, 2006 5:53:45 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: Re: Kick-Off Breakfast

Maybe you're onto something with how important these passing stats are, but I'm not completely sold yet. Mind you, I'm not debating that they are important, merely the level to which they matter. I'm not surprised wining teams have a healthy edge in the YPA battle, because losing teams chucking the ball in the fourth quarter generally don't fare very well, on any level.

It's a mistake to write off the preseason as completely meaningless. Sure, we don't see much of what happens in practice and that's where the puzzle comes together. But when I see a team like the Redskins get absolutely flattened in August, I have to at least investigate further.

Their coaching staff is impressive, sure. If anyone can bail this team out, it's defensive wizard Gregg Williams. But how long will it take the offense to adjust to the Al Saunders offense? What if Portis's shoulder isn't right? Did you see any of Brunell this summer? He turns 36 later in the month, but he looks 50 to me. He's just about done, and the options behind him don't look pretty. Throw in a hellish schedule, and these guys aren't making the playoffs. Book it.

I have the Broncos and Chiefs both making the playoffs (and I can't wait until Jay Cutler gets his feet wet, because he's going to be fantastic someday). I got a lot less interested in the Chargers when they let Drew Brees walk; Philip Rivers doesn't look close to ready. The Raiders look like their normal selves, interesting but dysfunctional. Aaron Brooks seems to fit like a glove, doesn't he? I guess at the end of the day, I respect Shanahan and the Broncos defense more than you do.

I think the Steelers are in big trouble. Schedule of land mines. Roethlisberger's appendix problem came at the worst possible time - his absence could be the difference between 2-0 and 0-2 (Miami, at Jacksonville). Cedrick Wilson scare you? You want to be hitched to Willie Parker for the long haul? Do you like their corners after Ike Taylor? Look at their road schedule again, it's ridiculous.

The Patriots have issues, but they'll be fine. I'm probably crazy to compare anyone to Antonio Gates, but that's who Ben Watson reminds me of. Branch and Givens as a tandem were adequate, nothing special; they can be replaced (and Brady's proven he can make chicken salad out of anything). And as you pointed out earlier in the summer, Bill Belichick has a full plate of opposing quarterbacks he can dominate.

The 8-ball is fuzzy in Dallas. Drew Bledsoe has no mobility and he still takes too long to get rid of the ball. Owens never plays a full schedule, for one reason or another. I don't trust Julius Jones at all. It sounds silly to say, but this team really needs Terry Glenn to stay healthy and productive. They better cut Mike Vanderjagt before he blows 2-3 games on his own. I wound up picking the Pokes for the playoffs, but I'm not married to that.

I know it's hard to erase the Eli Manning playoff memory, but I like the Giants, even with that dog Plaxico on the outside. They've got a balanced offense that can beat you a lot of ways (one more season like that, Tiki, and let's start talking about Canton), a monster pass rush. I can't see them missing the playoffs.

Mangini's on the pesky side, like so many of these "double secret probation" coaches. Catch him on the subway and ask him the time; I bet he turns to the side and puts his hand over his watch. If he can find a way to coax 5-6 wins out of the losing hand he's been dealt, throw the man a parade.

I can't believe you're passing off Saban so cavalierly. Going 9-7 with Gus Frerotte, walk-the-earth Ricky Williams and no real offensive line, that's impressive (not to mention a five game improvement). They were unlucky to not beat the Patriots both times. I think Miami needs to take another step forward before they're a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but I like their schedule and I'm putting them in the playoffs. New England still wins the division, though.

I was skeptical of Palmer, true, but heck, that was two years ago, an eternity in this business (back then, you were trying to convince everyone Pennington-to-McCareins was the new Montana-to-Rice). Palmer only had one great year in college (okay, it was Heisman great), and when I saw Matt Leinart basically duplicate it a year later (as a sophomore, at that), I made the mistake of putting Palmer in the "system" file. My botch, I couldn't be more wrong. He's got the physical gifts of Manning, the mind of Brady, the drive of Elway. Forget who we pick and who we root for and who we draft and all that stuff - the fan in me just wants to see Palmer have an injury-free decade or so. He'll be one of the best we ever watch.

I'm not going to be wrong on Chris Simms, though. He's got the pedigree and the right head coach, but I don't think that can save him. He was a non-factor at Tennessee, mediocre at Texas, and I haven't seen anything from the Tampa film to get me excited. He's going to get sabotaged by that line, too, a group that couldn't block anyone all summer (while we're add it, fantasy friends, be very wary of Cadillac Williams).

This is war and peace length, so let's wrap in the speed round: Free Matt Schaub . . . Somehow Matt Hasselbeck is underrated through it all - he's far and away the NFC's best quarterback, no one close . . . Philadelphia's schedule will build them up early, and tear them down late . . . If the NFL had three or four more teams like the Jaguars, I'd start following the WNBA . . . The over-under on Kurt Warner is 10.5 (as in starts).

Speaking of over-unders, it's a seasonal thing we do and here's my prescription:

- Redskins under 9
- Packers under 6.5
- Colts over 11.5
- Vikings over 8
- Titans under 5.5

I'm over my word count. You bring in the herd.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: September 6, 2006 10:24:22 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Kick-Off Breakfast

Quick and dirty reply. Not as dirty as your blindside over McCareins. Plus you had to throw Pennington in there to remind me of what could have, should have been. It's been a Series of Unfortunate Events for Chad since the 41-0 blasting of the Colts in January of '03. I feel like Kyle Clifton after the Sapp hit. But, hey, I did start it by pulling Palmer out of the 2004 archives.

You're not talking me out of the Redskins in the playoffs. I'd be very surprised if they didn't have a winning record. How are they not better than last year? Portis isn't dead. He'll be back and they have a lot of other talent.

I never said the Broncos weren't making the playoffs. We both see the AFCWest the same way.

Losing Roethlisberger hurts. It probably will be two games. But Miami is very beatable. Daunte Culpepper vs. those complicated blitz schemes with the crowd in a frenzy for the defending champs? Charlie Batch just has to not lose the game. If they come out of the first two weeks with a split, they'll be fine.

Patriots, Colts, Steelers and then a drop off in the AFC. Heck, after that there's a drop off in the entire NFL. The Giants were like the Dolphins, catching everyone at the right time (they missed McNabb and Owens completely, for example). Eli Manning doesn't get his feet under him when he throws. That's the definition of happy feet. He's an Excitable Boy and two many passes sail as a result.

Marion Barber is better than Julius Jones. Watch the Cowboys defense do a number on everyone, beginning this week in Jacksonville where the Jags and Leftwich will be overwhelmed.

I know this will upset people, but the truth hurts. The Falcons would be much better off if Vick got his leg broken (please spare me the outrage, dear readers, he'll live). Everyone in the know now whispers that Matt Schaub is better. I'm not whispering. I'm shouting it. HE'S BETTER! Free Jerious Norwood, too, while you're at it.

I like Warner as a fantasy grab, but Leinart will be ready to take the reigns in 10 weeks. Heck, he might be ready now.

Love over/unders. I'll go Panthers over 10, Bears under 9, Saints under 6.5. Now let's finish this greasy hash and watch some games.