"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Fantasy Breakfast - Part II of II

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: August 23, 2006 5:08:52 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: leftover breakfast

Stop! Click Here to Read Fantasy Breakfast Part I

Man, is this toast soggy. Oh, hey. I'm back. Let's get this thing back in the microwave.

I'm three episodes behind on "Entourage." They're all on the DVR and I can't muster up the desire to watch them. If it's worth the nudge, give it to me. Is Turtle running Death Row Records yet?

It's hard to determine which year-old stats matter and which don't. I'm with you on Caddy probably losing key work, sure. But goal line stats for 2004 would have screamed out that Domanick Davis was a touchdown machine - and so what? Did the Texans even make it inside the 5-yard line last year?

I want to like Mike Bell, but again, Shanny petrifies me. He'll bury a back for squinting into the sun the wrong way (ask Bell, Tatum, or Portis, Clinton, they'll back me up). Remember it's the system that's the star in Denver, not the player. All that said, I can live with Mike Bell in the late third or the early fourth round, I suppose, most leagues. Did I mention I hate drafts?

This gives me a seque to introduce something we've been discussing backstage - Joseph Addai. Intriguing back, sure. Dominic Rhodes is limited, no doubt. But why is Addai getting third-round treatment in so many leagues? This is a player who's *currently not a starter* for crying out loud - and it's not like he's hitched to a team that runs the ball into the ground.

It's not that I don't like Addai, becuase I'm in on his talent, sure. But I wonder if last year's Larry Johnson bonanza has fantasy owners trying too hard to find the next guy like him, the next lottery jackpot winner, the next explosive upside backup who wins your league for you. Heck, I was one of the guys who got rich on Johnson last year, even if I didn't take him as aggressively as some others did (the bandwagon was insanely crowded in late August). But people need to realize that he's a very rare case, a rare talent, and a situation that we probably won't see every year.

Okay, that said, is there a Larry Johnson out there? Is it Addai? The very intriguing Laurence Maroney? How much can Frank Gore do with a losing San Francisco team? Is it worth it to double up on the Chicago or Carolina or New England backs, if the price is reasonable?

You want to talk coaches and coordinators, so I'll touch on that. Herm Edwards and company will run the ball into the ground. No shocker there. I like Lee Evans with the new regime in Buffalo (Evans is also the only Buffalo-area fan of J.P. Losman). Scott Linehan's move to St. Louis gives Torry Holt the prettiest floor you ever did see (not that I'm breaking any new ground with that). Mike Martz should fully unlock Roy Williams in Detroit, but I disagree with you that Martz is a friend of the running back (I'm teasing another backstage throwdown here).

Auctions (and Universe Leagues) are the way to go. Drafts are so cheesy. Why shouldn't everyone have a say on Johnson, Tomlinson and Alexander? Why not make the big day a dynamic event, forcing owners to play poker, do some math, make a plan and scrap it, etc. I suppose you'll now tell me you prefer checkers to chess, and word searches to crossword puzzles. Go ahead, I'm all ears.

I bought Branch in my most important auction a few days ago. I don't think I'll regret it. But you offered up a good case against Tiki backstage, so maybe my go-large backfield of Tomlinson-Barber wasn't such a good idea (I was able to get Turner, not Jacobs).

Okay, no one wants to hear about my team (or yours). But they do want to hear about the themes. Senator, you have the floor. (Other possible backstage reconstructions if you see fit - Kurt Warner. Neil Rackers. Rudi Johnson. Willis McGahee. Kevan Barlow. I feel like I'm ripping off PTI making this list. Speaking of which, how has Tony Kornheiser been in the new gig? I wouldn't know - ESPN numbed me senseless with their never-ending self-promotion, so I'm putting them on probation until the real games start. If you've got a tease for me, let's hear it.)

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: August 23, 2006 7:30:03 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: leftover breakfast

Hey, people are bitching and moaning about Entourage this year. But I still look forward to it on Sunday when the night rolls around and I remember that it's on. But maybe I'm just happy that the kids are closer to being put to bed and the summer is almost over (back to prison come September, kids). I have enjoyed the Martin Landau guest appearances, which really had me worried at first. Landau is so old, even Joe Sheehan wouldn't draft him in the RotoWire Steak League. But they nicely integrated Landau's age into the story line.

In '04, Domanick Davis was ninth in inside-the-five plays, with 19. Last year, he had five (three TDs). I don't have how many times the Texans were inside the five overall, but I do know how many inside-the-five plays they gave to running backs last year (six; the Chiefs generated 30 for their backs). The Texans weren't even last in Red Zone possessions (they had 37, the Niners 28). The Niners generated just four inside-the-five plays for their backs, all to Kevan Barlow (one TD). I'd expect the Texans to get closer to the league average in these plays this year, but I don't know if Davis is going to get 'em. Heck, I don't even know if Davis is going to be playing Week 1.

Third or fourth round for Bell? You're not getting him then, bro', so cross him off your lists. Desperation has set in at RB with Davis and now Clinton Portis (Duckett's getting the TDs, people) in question. Everyone wants two backs with the first two picks. In a 12-team league, that's 18 backs gone after two rounds, at least. Bell doesn't deserve to be in there? And Shanahan turned Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis into every-down studs post-Terrell Davis. He didn't committee those guys at all. And it was trades and injuries that forced changes.

Here's why Addai is going relatively early (and I don't think late third, early fourth is too early for Addai assuming that's 25-to-30 backs in, which it will be in many leagues). It's a transitional year at running back and people are going for the gusto earlier. Good for them. No balls, no blue chips. If Addai is starting on November 1, a guy who burned a late three on him has a better chance to win his league than some guy who took Corey Dillon. And November 1 is the over/under (I'm going under). You win a league in November and December, never in September. This is head-to-head scoring (which I like despite the detractors like our buddy Steve Moyer because it forces you to plan ahead).

Kurt Warner is the same deal. I know he's not getting more total fantasy points than Matt Hasselbeck. I don't care. When both are healthy, Warner is likely to be much more explosive. The floor is much lower, but who cares with QBs? There are a bunch of guys to be had via trades or, in light of the multitude of injuries, free agency.

(And I know we weren't supposed to talk drafting and strategy, but it was my rule, so I can break it. Plus, that was so long ago, I can say I just forgot.)

Maroney? My heart goes pitter-patter. Dillon wants to be the new Eddie George. But Belichick is too smart to let him. If you want to get really crafty late, take the Chargers' Michael Turner. LT is due for a breakdown (I hate to sound ghoulish, but it's true). Jacobs could play dividends, too. If there's a backup who could be a stud behind any 30-year-old and/or plus 2,000-touch running back, grab him late.

As for the Tiki backstage stuff. I don't like him until the second round, which means I don't like him. No goal-line carries. 31 years old. And 22nd all-time in total touches. The circus leaves town for everyone and, when it does, the trucks get packed up very, very quickly.

I'm bullish on Lee Evans. Steve Fairchild was even more pass-happy than Martz last year, without Bulger. He has a defensive head coach to keep him in line, however. Still, Evans can get up on the safeties really quick in the fashion of a Rams' receiver. But J.P. Losman is iffy. Evans is an uncertain route-runner. But if you can get him 20 receivers in, you're doing well. But the cat's out of the bag with him off the big game last week, isn't it?

Martz: Friend of Running Back? The Coryell system is very running back heavy near the goal line. It was with Martz, Vermeil (Eagles and Rams), Coryell, Saunders (Chiefs). So you have to assume it will be in Detroit. I think one two many flanker reverses at the plus-three stuck in your head. But Rod Marinelli will reign that wacky stuff in and get Martz back to basics.

I'm off Rackers now because I found out that the commercial where he hits the upright four straight times from 50-yards away was trick photography. Seriously, never, ever fall in love with a fungible kicker, as you very well know.

Branch is on the hook for $14,000 for each day of camp he missed. Is that negotiable? Is he just "subject to" being find? I don't know. But it seems particularly nasty. Once you get past the third preseason game, all bets for the holdout ending in time are off. Plus, what's he ever going to win for you? In a point-per-catch league, maybe he's useful. Otherwise, he's a borderline No. 3 in deep leagues. Brady likes tight ends. Actually, Chad Jackson excites me more if the Pats just write Branch off. I know he's a rookie long-shot. But this is a perfect situation if he starts.

We both sort of like McGahee in our dream-, drafting-late, grabbed-Rudi Johnson-and-McGahee-back-to-back scenario. Of course, we both know that has no chance of happening unless you're playing in the grammar school league.

Barlow's still a solid No. 3 back in my book even after he called Nolan a Hitler on his way out the door. Now he has to apologize. Stand by your convictions, Kevan! If you're going to apologize for anything, try giving one to us writers for not knowing how spell your name. Better yet, listen to the writer P.G. Wodehouse: "It is a good rule in life never to apologize. The right sort of people do not want apologies. And the wrong sort take mean advantage of them." If you don't believe that, talk to my wife! (Fine, I'm sorry I signed up for Vonage and the phones never work!)

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: August 23, 2006 10:52:07 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: all day mike dreams about addai

Oh great, ruin the suspense. I haven't run into Landeau yet on Entourage. I'm still trying to figure out why he loaned Matt Damon all that money in Rounders. But I digress . . .

Average draft position is a great tool to help us figure out when some of these backs *might* be available. I checked two ADP sources and they both spit out Addai as an early fifth-round pick for a 12-team league. That sounds about right to me. To flush 1-2 rounds of value down the toilet on a lottery ticket, to me, seems like lunacy. Yes, your draft should downshift into upside mode at some point, but in the third round?

Larry Johnson was the ultimate exception last summer, okay, fine. I loved him as much as you did last August. Go back and read anything either one of us wrote on LJ, I'm sure it was gushing and glowing. (Weren't you, me and Moyer all giggling to ourselves over LJ last November? Maybe I shouldn't be saying this. Anyway, his nine weeks paid for my Christmas. I wish I were joking. Thanks much, LJ.)

So Addai was a first round pick. So are a lot of backs. Did Chris Perry push aside Rudi Johnson? Did Deuce McAllister unseat Ricky Williams right away? For that matter, check what happened with Ronnie Brown and Ricky last year. Larry Johnson needed multiple seasons to get past Derrick Blaylock on the depth chart, for crying out loud. I realize Dominic Rhodes isn't better than any of these incumbents I'm mentioning (even Blaylock), but that's not the point. I think Addai in the third round is crazy, period - if for no other reason than you likely can get him later, and if not him, someone not all that different. The draft is still about collecting as much value (today worth and potential worth) as you can get. It is not about reaching like crazy, hurting your arm, and wasting your buying power.

Mind you, I don't like being on the opposite side of you and Liss on any fantasy evaluation. But it's not a matter of me not liking the player here - it's the pricetag. I can't spend my third-round, non-redraft pick on a "maybe." That's enough on that, let's move on.

Shanahan's 2005 backfield was more of a committee than you remember. Anderson only had 239 rushes, with Bell at 173. What's your definition of committee, anyway? Truth be told I don't think Shanahan's so stubborn that he won't adjust to his talent. If Mike Bell proves to be worth 25-30 touches a game, he'll get them. I'd feel a little better if the guy proved worthy of being drafted four months ago, though.

I agree that Dillon is on fumes but if one can get Dillon and Maroney tied together, I'm on board. Ditto Benson-Jones in Chicago, or Foster-Williams in Carolina. Bankroll a winning team, get those cheap downhill yards in the fourth quarter. One caveat: this is much more feasible for the chess players - err, auction players - in the crowd. In a draft, you're almost begging for someone to snipe you on the handcuff when you take the shaky starter to begin with.

You and I seem to get into a seasonal Warner debate, so now's as good a time as any (you haven't forgiven Martz for 2003, have you?). Sure, I like Arizona's wideouts a bunch, who doesn't? And yes, Warner had all those pretty yards last year. But give the Cardinals a better running game and a better defense and there's no way Warner is throwing 40-45 times a week. It's just not possible.

Can Warner throw for 1.5 scores a week when he plays? I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but given that he only had 11 last year despite his fantastic wideouts, I have my concerns. (Warner barely crept into the Top 10 quarterbacks on a points-per-game basis last year, and again, that's with Fitzgerald and Boldin going ballistic.)

Add it all up and Warner will be somewhere between 5-10 on the QB ranks when he plays, and he'll get hurt at some point, too (he's had one full season in six). And that doesn't make him more valuable than Hasselbeck (or the Hasselbeck-similar guys) in a nutshell, albeit Warner may be worth the value he presents in some leagues.

Me, it depends how the room feels. I'd take him as a contrarian play, but no way am I targeting the man with the wobbly spiral. And while the QB waiver wire is rich in most leagues, it's not brimming with talent, either. Maybe you guess right or get lucky, or maybe you get the next J.P Losman. It's not as easy as it looks after the fact. (My QB strategy really hasn't changed over the years - I'll take the best guy who slides. Someone always does. That's the beauty of the game - your opponents can only screw you so many times. They can't take everybody).

You wouldn't take Barber in the first round at all? That can't be right. Say Tagliabue calls your name and the big three are gone . . . and Brown, Rudi, Edge, and Jackson are gone too. Then what? Jordan over Barber? Dreamer. McGahee over Barber? I'm willing to accept Willis as a No. 2 back, but i'm not hitching my sled to him. I'm not saying Barber's downside isn't very real and very scary, but you can say that about every back not in the Top 3. And heck, the trinity has some fleas, too, they're just smaller and easier to look past.

The cat should have been out of the bag with Evans last year - he was the only guy who could track Losman's passes. Alas, he had to remind everyone with the preseason blowup, and now the cover is blown. A shame. More reason to hold your league start-up early. The longer you wait, the more you help the slackers, the idiots, and the also-rans. Before the internet was invented, those donators truly had no chance.

I'm way over my word count (even Dusty would say it), so let's move to the speed round.

Please don't trust Kevin Jones this year. Big mistake. Martz will torpedo him. This will not be pretty. If the price on Jones isn't next to nothing, just let him go.

Rackers is another guy to pass on, for different reasons. Perfect storm kicker seasons very rarely repeat. You're not bidding on talent so much as context, and the waiver wire will be brimming with unwanted options. If there's any position that's incredibly easy to hack on the fly, it's this one.

Branch will make peace and be a Top 20 wideout in every format, book it. He's been a giant discount to everyone so far. Enjoy it while it lasts.

I could say more but this is already super-sized as is. Shrink to fit.

Back to Fantasy Breakfast Part I