"The Breakfast Table is a (mostly) morning e-mail exchange between football writers and friends Mike Salfino and Scott Pianowski. Always snappy, sometimes snippy but never high in carbs, the BT's main course is an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL developments. But side dishes of music, movies, television and the rest of the cultural zeitgeist are ordered up when the mood strikes. Salfino is stuck somewhere in the swamps of Jersey. Pianowski lives above the desiccated remains of Jimmy Hoffa in Michigan. They've been tabling together since 2002."

Fantasy Breakfast Part I of II

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: August 15, 2006 1:06:18 AM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Fantasy Breakfast

We've always been "Queens Boulevard" here in the Breakfast Table. So a straight fantasy football Table seems "Aquamanified," to quote Billy Walsh.

I want to scream, "@#&! COMMERCE!" I feel the urge to rebel against any recitation of the mechanics of draft strategy and various scoring systems.

But, of course, we've been covering matters of substance for fantasy football junkies here in this space all along. For me, the Table's for the fan who wants to know more than the person sitting next to them at the game or at the bar. And isn't that same desire what gave rise to fantasy sports in the first place? Isn't this just our way of following the clarity of sports by keeping score so there can be no doubt who the King of Knowledge is in our select fan clan? So, when you get down to the substance of it and forget about the bells and whistles and jargon, aren't we all -- fantasy players, handicappers, passionate fans of our childhood team -- digging in the same dirt?

How can we best predict player performance? Is skill more important than environment? How transferable is past performance in this ever-changing NFL landscape? Do coaches and systems make the player or vice versa? I've been searching like Indiana Jones for stats with better predictive value. Which of them are most useful? And finally and most importantly, which players are going to exceed or fall short of expectations to the greatest degree and why? Though I loathe the word, "fantasy" Breakfast is served.

From: "scott pianowski" <spianow@gmail.com>
Date: August 16, 2006 4:34:39 PM EDT
To: "Michael Salfino" <salfino@comcast.net>
Subject: zigs and zags

My big secret as a fantasy owner is that I'm a feel player. I'm not crunching numbers right now, I'm not looking at color-coded graphs, and I'm not inventing acronyms to justify my own existence. I don't own a stopwatch or a calculator.

What I am doing is grading the graders, observing the general fantasy player, watching the detectives. Along with information gathering and some limited tape watching, this month for me has always been centered around figuring out who's overrated and who's underrated in the fantasy community, and countering that on the big day. (You know all about this, even if you wouldn't put it in the same terms. Remember how everyone kicked Alfonso Soriano back in March? You were the only guy I heard saying "buy." At the end of the day it's not about good and bad players, it's about good and bad values.)

Last year's trend stats? For the most part I chuck them in the garbage. They're fun to talk about and in-season they mean something, but a year removed they doesn't convince me of anything, not in the reshuffle NFL. T.J. Houshmandzadeh isn't a major threat to Chad Johnson, no matter what happened in the red zone last fall (some fantasy owners made a similar, and wrong, assumption on Wayne-Harrison last year). Domanick Davis was money from in close in 2004, but the goal line was a rumor for the Texans in 2005. Peyton Manning sucked from in-close last year, the numbers say. Convince me why I should assume a carryover in 2006. Remember when Mike Holmgren was known as "the coach who throws in the red zone?" That changed when his personnel changed. Heck, even Marty Schottenheimer's guys throw these days. This month should be more about looking ahead and less about looking back.

Some rules of thumb I carry with me:

1. Be very careful with Mike Shanahan. He's a brilliant mind but the Astrodome couldn't hold his ego. He's the guy who looked at Jake Plummer and thought, "My system can make him a star." He thinks he can make a 1,200-yard rusher out of the Milk Lady. And oh yeah, he'll jettison anyone to Siberia if they bobble the ball or blow a blitz pickup at the wrong time. I suppose that instinct is in most coaches, but more so here. The Bell boys have to be generously marked before I spent my money.

2. Auctioner players rule, drafters drool. I pity the fools who get stuck with the 4, 5 or 6 spot in any common draft, a fix Winston Wolf couldn't bail out of. Auctions are more dynamic, more interesting, and more fair. Burn those draft cards, kids.

3. Handicapping the teams is important. You don't want running backs from bad clubs. Kickers and defenses get a boost from winning teams. The best friend for a fantasy passing game is a crummy defense on the other side. Don't look at the players in a vacuum, because environment is very important.

4. Veteran holdouts don't throw me. Keenan McCardell flushed half a year in 2004, Antonio Gates lost a game in 2005, Emmitt Smith missed two games back in the early 1990s. Can you think of other modern players who missed appreciable time? The Pats fan in me isn't thrilled with the way the Deion Branch situation is playing out (not to mention all that unused cap room New England's stuck with), but my dollar says Branch is playing on opening day. Rookie holdouts do matter, given the learning curve of the pro game, but veterans don't need camp time all that much.

5. Strength of schedule is another misunderstood concept. You want to look at the first month of the schedule, or six weeks, okay, fine. Figuring out who plays who in Week 13 and 14 and 15 is misguided. Too many elements will change between now and then. Look at what's in front of you.

I'm not sure if I've given you a workable piece or not here, but I have an auction in 30 minutes so it's going to have to do. Trust me on the sunscreen.

From: Michael Salfino <salfino@comcast.net>
Date: August 16, 2006 6:12:41 PM EDT
To: scott pianowski <spianow@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: zigs and zags

What, have you given up on "Entourage" like you did with Jack Bauer?

Soriano was the one thing I got right at Tout Wars. Thanks for not reminding everyone how wrong I was about Barry Bonds.

What are we grading in football? The individual matters, obviously, but each year I believe it matters less and less. There's a hair's difference between all of these guys. Yes, you want them to work hard. (Are you listening, Plaxico? I didn't think so). But the delicate chemistry of the supporting cast is huge and how the staff decides to employ them is just as important. Take Carnell Williams, who I think is going to be more Chevy than Cadillac this year because his coach isn't going to use him on third downs or on the goal line.

See, that's where I think stats matter. I want to know that Williams received two (TWO!!!) plays (runs or times thrown to) inside the five yard line last year. It's these handful of plays that make or break all but the Barry Sanders-level back in leagues that emphasize scoring. But the nuts and bolts are given short shrift. I chastised a colleague today for saying that Edgerrin James is going to get more goal-line looks this year than last. He led the league last year in inside-the-five plays, bro'. I know the stats are hard to find, but I found 'em.

Your points about T.J. (see how deftly I've avoided misspelling his name) and Peyton are good ones. But I think the right numbers give us a better sense of what the performance range is for a player. It was more than red zone efficiency that did Peyton in last year. Carson Palmer had about 20 more chances to make plays in the red zone despite just one more red zone possession for the Bengals because Cincy threw on 51 percent of red zone plays and Indy on just 44 percent. Knowing that gives me a nice baseline. Now I can say, "The Colts lost James and won't defer to the running game given the options of Dominic Rhodes or a rookie, so Manning should throw more often than average (46 percent) in the red zone and get 5-to-10 more TDs as a result." Now, it could still be wrong, of course, but at least it's reasoned.

Who is believing Mike Bell? I am, enough to take a flyer 20 backs in. I'd rather have him than Tatum. What more do we need to know about Shanahan and Tatum Bell. Mike doesn't believe, so whether we do just doesn't matter. Shanahan means business when he anoints this early. And his system makes the great back, not the player (I'm convinced).

Or maybe it's Alex Gibbs' zone-blocking system. And Gibbs' system is now being used in Green Bay by former pupils Mike McCarthy and new offensive coordintor Jeff Jagodzinski. I haven't seen this referenced in many (any?) Ahman Green projections. You know how I hate old running backs, but that system makes fantasy winners and Green has enough gas in the tank to take an educated chance.

I think handicapping record is important on the extreme ends of the spectrum. But a 6-10 team that is competitive (like the Browns last year), is still going to run a lot if running is their philosophy (and we only know that by looking at how often teams run or pass on first down; the rest is too influenced by situation).

So tell me which teams/systems/coordinators stand out as havens for runners or passers/wideouts. Let's handicap that. Who gets a big upgrade or downgrade because of change in system/coordinators and why? We all focus on this (or try to) when a guy changes teams, but less when the player stays but the system around him changes.

This point dovetails nicely into the feelings we share regarding strength of schedule. It's mostly a waste of precious math resources. The only bigger waste of time in fantasy is figuring out a guy's playoff-week matchups in August. Those opponents could have five major injuries on defense before Halloween or some fourth-rounder can be playing like an all-pro. For the playoff weeks, you look for weather, indoor games are premium, especially in the passing and kicking games. But even December weather is nothing more than a head or tailwind in picking a player.

As for how we pick players, the thing I hate about auctions is that some guy walks away with a gem just because the guy who REALLY likes that same player is out of cash. Everyone focuses on the fact that the Larry Johnsons go to the guy who actually likes him the most, which is good. But they forget how the draft turns after five or six rounds and then, it's the guy who likes the player the most who gets him. In auctions, the pattern is reversed. So, to me, it's pick your poison.

Yeah, I can think of a modern holdout who missed a lot of time. Walter Jones for a couple years running. That was a franchise player, too. We forget about this because it wasn't a fantasy guy, but if he can do it, why won't a running back or WR? Deion Branch is under contract and getting fined $14 Grand a day for his holdout, which isn't pocket change for anyone. So, I think this has a good chance of going the distance (meaning November), as Branch is in the final year of his deal and doesn't want to sign another bad one.

Click here for Fantasy Breakfast Part II of II.